Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 21 FEB 2023 12:30 PST - Putin's Speech

Beyond the desire to get two hours of my life back, I watched Putin's speech in real-time. I started watching on RT but became concerned I couldn't trust the translation, so I moved to the BBC. The BBC lost translation a couple of times (the team speculated the translator had to go outside and release a couple of primal screams), so I switched to Sky News. I must confess that by the 90-minute mark, I was pretty checked out.

So what did Putin say? For the first 10 to 15 minutes, everything we've heard before. As we expected:

• No formal declaration of war
• No transition of the "special military operation" to an antiterror operation
• No nationwide martial law
• No full mobilization (and Putin wouldn't need to announce that because September 21, 2022, partial-mobilization decree has no limits and was never rescinded)
• No direct nuclear threats directed at Kyiv or the west
• No Crimea is a redline of destruction
• No claims of any victories or progress for the "special military operation" after declaring "mission accomplished" in late September with the faux referendums for annexation

After sleeping on it and rereading the transcript, I reached a conclusion. Putin's speech came from a place of weakness, and it was directed mostly at an internal audience.

SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION

Putin's speech didn't spend much time on the SMO, and the tone set was very different from a year ago. There was an acknowledgment and a semi-apology for it taking longer than expected and being harder than expected, but an assurance that it would end with re-establishing territories the West took away from Russia going back to the 1800s. He repeatedly claimed that it was always the plan to attack Russia and that Ukraine would attack the Donbas in February 2022, so Russia had to respond. We know this isn't true because if Ukraine was going to attack the Donbas in February 2022, and Russia attacked on February 23, 2022 (pedantically, they attacked very late in the evening), Ukraine would have had significantly more forces stationed across the Donbas to defend places like Mariupol.

There was frustration from the usual suspects in the milblogger space that there Putin did not admit any mistakes or discuss failures, nor committed to more escalation.

Putin did not define or redefine the goals of the SMO, only stating that the more longer range weapons the west sends, the further Russia will have to push into Ukraine.

The one thing that did resonate, even among his detractors on Russian social media, was a promise to promote people who have served with distinction in the military to higher ranks. Although some pointed out that's what a military is supposed to do, and there wasn't an acknowledgment of the problems that plague the Russian Federation Armed Forces officer corps.

WARTIME ECONOMY

Putin did not declare the nation was moving to a wartime economy, although it is partially there, to begin with. He did claim that issues with weapon and ammunition production have been fully resolved and the needs of the military are being met. Anyone paying attention knows that it isn't true. He again blamed the West for making Russia dependent on its technology and stated the need to develop its economy and population to fill this gap.

FAMILY AND VETERANS AFFAIRS

While this likely played well to an internal audience, which firmly believes that Putin is a benevolent leader surrounded by people undermining his efforts, this was the most telling and weakest part of his speech. He vowed to create a network of social workers with a 1:1 ratio to support military families and veterans to ensure they get what is needed. He vowed to provide medical benefits and rehabilitation and increase the production of prosthetic limbs. He promised to address housing by building free homes for veterans and their families who served with honor. Full disclosure, we have friends in my circle who are doctors in the United States Veterans Administration, and they do amazing work, and the VA is a dumpster fire. There is likely no nation on this planet that does everything it should do for combat veterans. Through that filter, all of this is empty promises a 1:1 ratio of social workers to families is impossible.

ECONOMY

The economy is great! Sanctions didn't hurt! Yes, we had some negative GDP in 2022, but we're past that! Unemployment is under 4%! Our business is great! Our treasury is in better condition than this time last year! The West has failed in its efforts to destroy us and make the Russian people suffer!

We need people to start small businesses to be successful in our economy. We're going to focus on domestic tourism. We must rebuild our ability to build things because we lack capacity and depend on outside nations.

Admittedly this sounds very similar to a Western state of the union address and a boring campaign speech that was delivered with some Trumpism sidebars combined with the energy of Al Gore talking about lock boxes (and now everyone is angry at me). 

Putin claimed that demand for the rouble doubled in the last year, leaving out the part that the Russian economy only accepts roubles for external payment. He also left out the part of the significant demand destruction that started in early December, sinking the rouble by almost 20%.

Putin also claimed that the West in the 1990s moved Russia to an economy based on the export of natural resources because it was "easy money," and Russia ignored its manufacturing sector. He completely ignored that Russia started developing its oil and gas exports in the 1970s, and these programs wildly accelerated under his leadership. The Russian manufacturing sector was ignored as the Soviet Union crumbled, and by the 1980s, the era of bulletproof Soviet tractors was long gone. Russian manufacturing had become a joke of corruption and neglect.

He also failed to mention that deficit spending has exploded at the end of 2022 and into 2023 and that Russia has to sell its gold reserve on the open market to prop up its coffers. 

Russia had a record grain harvest in 2022, including wheat, without mentioning the stolen grain from Ukraine included in the tally. 

He claimed that Russia built 100,000,000 square meters of housing in 2022, ignoring how much they bombed flat during the same year while "liberating" Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, Izyum, Rubizhne, and Popasna - among many other cities, towns, and villages in Ukraine.

SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT

This also sounded more like a campaign speech of lofty promises with no possible way to deliver on them or pay for the programs. Improvements in hospital care, rural infrastructure, Russian roads, interest-free loans, and new housing. Politicians worldwide make these promises yearly, so I can't with a clear mind of trying to be objective zing him for saying the same thing I've heard promised to me for decades.

EDUCATION

This was likely the most cynical part of his speech. He stated that Russia needs to get back to building great educational institutions and strengthing education for its society. He rightly pointed out, without saying it, that an educated society is less impoverished and more productive.

He left out the tens of thousands of young people who have died, are dying, is permanently disabled, and will suffer from PTSD for decades to come. Russia already has a demographic crisis with a shrinking population. He also failed to mention that Russia already has some of the world's most prestigious educational institutions. The problem is that the Russian wealthy don't send their children (mostly) to those institutions. They send them to London, Cambridge, New Haven,  and other western educational institutions. This message was aimed at the sort-of-rich in Russia who don't have enough clout to sneak around sanctions but enough clout to normally be able to send their child to Harvard.

INSULTING PMC WAGNER - AGAIN

Putin rattled off a list of organizations he wanted to thank for their efforts and sacrifices for the special military operation but initially didn't even mention "volunteers," which has become the faint acknowledgment that PMC Wagner even exists. He then spent almost two minutes explaining that he had a longer list but couldn't thank everyone and didn't want to insult someone by leaving them out. Later in the speech, he made a passing reference to the sacrifice of volunteers. While Putin was speaking, Prigozhin released another audio statement declaring that PMC Wagner Group mercenaries aren't just cut off from ammunition - they are cut off from everything. His latest complaint is that his troops can't even get shovels from the Ministry of Defense to dig trenches. This explains why PMC Wagner mercenaries are stripping dead Ukrainian soldiers of their boots and warm weather gear.

Could Wagner turn their anger toward the Kremlin? Definitely. History has plenty of examples of how ultranationalists react when they perceive they've been stabbed in the back. PMC Wagner is being stabbed in the back - repeatedly. History also is littered with warnings of what can happen when angry ultranationalists who feel they've been stabbed in the back take control, so be careful what you wish for.

CONCLUSION

While Russian state media and his inner circle applauded the speech, as expected, it wasn't well received when you peek under the surface. Among the Kremlin can do no wrong set, there was excitement about the social programs announced for veterans and their families. This is the same Kremlin that is denying stabilizing medical care to wounded soldiers, not paying their troops, and not paying out death and disability benefits.

The speech was boring, and at times Putin appeared to go off script and get lost in his words. This isn't a biased assessment; camera shots from Russian state media showed sleeping lawmakers, blank expressions, and a mostly passive response to many promises made. There were moments when the applause was out of sync with the audience's reaction.

Putin made no claims of new victories, did not establish any timelines, nor addressed any of the real problems on the front. Promises like providing prosthetic limbs are the bare minimum the Russian government should be doing in the first place.

Putin repeatedly blamed the West for Russia's problems and for supporting the "Kyiv regime." He repeated the phrases Neo-Nazis and Nazis repeatedly in referring to Ukrainian troops. Nationalists need internal and external threats to maintain power (this should be a warning for all nations), and the blaming of the "so-called West" becomes an undefined blob with endless enemies to point to for years to come. All while saying Russia embraces freedom and diversity and doesn't engage in empire-building or manipulating and engaging in global conflicts.

Admittedly this speech lacked the entertainment value of we will nuke you, so don't cross these redlines or else, and only mentioned biolabs once; it did not have the swagger of Putin's speech from a year ago. Putin looked tired and loudly declared there weren't any problems that couldn't be solved while announcing programs that admitted Russia has massive problems.