Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 22 FEB 2023 07:30 PST - Horrifying Losses

We are in debate on whether to share the picture in today's SITREP, and we caution you to be careful what you search for. Yevgeny Prigozhin is continuing to escalate his war of words with the Kremlin.

About 90 minutes ago, Prigozhin released a picture that shows between 80 to 100 dead Wagner mercenaries stacked in the snow, which he claims represents one day of combat losses just on the edges of Bakhmut. The picture is shocking in the scale of death when you consider this only represents recovered bodies. There were no readily apparent body fragments, and not all bodies are recoverable.

Additionally, we can extrapolate that if PMC Wagner is suffering 80 KIA a day on the low end, and on a day that Ukrainian officials reported fighting was "lighter" than a month ago, WIA is estimated at 200 - on the low end (2.5 WIA per 1 KIA). These represent the lowest possible number. That's 280 out of the fight daily - the bare minimum with photo evidence.

Ultranationalists will be quick to defend the photo and declare, "it's worse for Ukraine," which is unlikely as defenders have a 1:3 to 1:7 advantage. Still, the toll is horrible for both combatants. Further, these losses only represent Wagner. They do not represent regular Russian troops, the LNR or DNR, volunteer units like BARS, other PMCs, and Chechen Akhmat.

At the same time, a video emerged of a failed Russian offensive west of Kreminna where Russian forces attempted to move a full company of tanks through the forest. Fourteen tanks, including T-90Ms, were destroyed. The entire company. In our estimation, there is visual evidence that Russia has lost 149 armored vehicles in 36 days at Kreminna, Opytne, Vodyane, and Vuhledar. This is unsustainable for any military. But back to the exploding war of words.

Prigozhin has gone all in to discredit the Kremlin and the actions of Valery Gerasimov and Sergei Shoigu. The State Duma's warning about "turbo patriots" being the biggest threat to Russian stability in 2023 is starting to appear to be warranted, although self-inflicted.

The Kremlin has had a standing policy of trying to hide combat losses for decades, and Ukraine is no different. We have repeatedly assessed that Russia has rotated through Syrians, South Ossetians, volunteer battalions, the LNR, the DNR, and Akhmat as disposable forces. With those resources completely exhausted, the next logical choice was PMC Wagner and their penal battalions. How and where Wagner was used dramatically shifted after Valery Gerasimov took command of all forces in Ukraine, and we maintain PMC Wagner became combat ineffective during its efforts to capture Soledar.

Putin is unpredictable, so it is hard to determine how he will react to this provocation. Priogzhin is across every possible red line of the so-called "don't say war" laws and is deep into discrediting the Russian Federation Armed Forces territory. We can't think of any modern example of a Putin insider that became an outsider that was allowed back into the inner circle. With Kadyrov snubbed by Putin and not in attendance at his speech on Tuesday, the message is clear. You don't mess with Sergei Shoigu. On the other hand, all of this is to the detriment of the war effort.

The only European example we can think of is the actions of Stalin between 1937 and 1941 and the actions of Hitler between 1944 and 1945. Pick your comparison. We had previously assessed that the in fighting was benefiting Putin and serving as a useful distraction. We don't believe that is the case anymore.

This is unknown territory and an increasingly dangerous situation. Ultranationalists who are truly fighting for what they believe is the defense of Russia will likely stay in the fight. Penal units will also stay in the fight because the alternative is torture or execution. Those that are there because it's a paycheck will be the first to riot. The pictures shared by Prigozhin are not going to be good for unit morale among his mercenaries.

We also don't know what the reality is. Are Wagner forces being destroyed because of actions by the Russian Ministry of Defense, or has Ukrainian defenses stiffened, and has Bakhmut turned into a 21st-century Stalingrad? Is Prigozhin now trying to shift the blame to the Kremlin for his inability to advance further? 

We agreed with Igor Strelkov Girkin's assessment that there are serious questions about PMC Wagner and the Russian military's ability to encircle Bakhmut and Soledar, sever the Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC - supply line), protect both flanks from breakthrough or counterstrike, protect the eastern advance, and then attack the garrison within the encirclement. At this point, the answer for us is becoming "no." The best Russia can hope for is forcing Ukraine to leave by its own choice.

Could PMC Wagner abandon its mission in Ukraine? That seems highly unlikely as the act could be considered treasonous, and this may be exactly what the Ministry of Defense is hoping for. Could this devolve into Wagner SOF units assassinating what they perceive as their enemies inside Ukraine? That seems quite likely now.

This boils down to a complete lack of professionalism within the Russian Federation Armed Forces and the danger of using private military companies. The United States experienced problems (but nowhere near to this level) with Blackwater in the 2000s, and our assessment that the Kremlin permitted PMC Wagner to grow too big over the fall was accurate.

While all eyes are on Ukraine, PMC Wagner has an estimated 10,000 mercenaries in Africa and is deeply involved in natural resources extraction, earning the PMC hundreds of millions of dollars a year. Shoigu and Gerasimov are poking a rabid bear with a sharp stick, thinking it has no teeth or claws left and it has been cornered with no escape.

Unless there is a resolution and some kind of "peace agreement" between Wagner and the Kremlin, measured in hours or days, we don't see how Russian forces can capture Bakhmut unless they intend to withdraw PMC Wagner from the theater of operations. If that were to happen, we still don't see how Bakhmut will be captured because Russian mobiks don't perform at the same level. Further, both combatants have taken advantage of troop rotations when they occurred. Worse, a withdrawal from Bakhmut would be perceived as a failure of what many Russians believe is the most elite fighting force on Russia's side in Ukraine.

So nobody wins?

Right now, Ukraine is the winner.