Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 25 FEB 2023 14:45 PST - Russian Troops Break Through Ukrainian Defenses

Russian troops supported by PMC Wagner launched a large-scale offensive operation south of Ivanivske. They broke through Ukrainian defenses with reports of heavy fighting in the suburb of Bakhmut on the T-504 Highway.

Fighting is described as very intense.

To the north, Ukraine blew up a dam north of Krasna Hora (roughly) to slow down the Russian advance into Bakhmut itself. 

We maintain that Russia will capture Bakhmut at all costs and continues to suffer a higher ratio of losses due to their tactics and an acute shortage of some munitions. In particular antitank weapons, with multiple videos for almost two weeks showing Ukrainian tanks and infantry fighting vehicles operating with near impunity along the entire axis.

This is not incompatible with our assessment of the Russian army within Ukraine reaching a state of combat ineffectiveness, with Russia only able to make an advance in one small area by concentrating almost all of its available offensive power. PMC Wagner is already combat destroyed, regardless of what their leaders may say, and coupled with the losses of military equipment at Kreminna, Avdiivka, Marinka, and Vuhledar, Russia is fighting for another pyrrhic victory.

Russia continues to use squad and platoon-size wave attacks to overwhelm Ukrainian positions either by numbers, Ukrainian defenders melting gun barrels due to the rate of fire because of the wave of attacks, or running out ammunition (not a shortage or logistics issue, near continuous attacks, is consuming at a rate that can't be replenished). There have been complaints among some Ukrainian units that their senior command structure is still using a top-down, rigid, Soviet-era command mentality. Some units are being ordered to defensive positions which can't be held or leave other areas exposed, with some senior leaders not accepting subordinate input. Other units with younger commanders are afforded more flexibility and are far more successful. It is hard to let go of 30 years of training in any role, and tougher to simply purge those leaders.

We learned at Severodonetsk and Lysychansk that making predictions of A will fall in B to C days is a fool's errand. Bakhmut has held out longer than all analyst predictions at the start of the year. Last year, Severodonetsk and Mariupol repeatedly held out longer than our assessments, while Lysychansk fell almost instantly. 

Ukraine's General Staff will have some tough decisions to make, and the Russian attack was likely partially motivated by upcoming weather, which will be unfavorable for continued attacks in the upcoming week due to mud. The weather will also be unfavorable for a Ukrainian retreat - mud is an equal opportunity problem.

We have said that the three triggers where Ukraine will seriously consider a total withdrawal were the capture of Ivanivske, the collapse of the northern defenses along "The Ledge," which is the last high ground north of central Bakhmut, or Russian troops reaching the Bakhmutovka River in the east.

As of this writing, we don't know how far Russian troops have reached into Ivanivske or the state of fighting. Ukraine has been maintaining a fighting retreat in Bakhmut since early January. Unless the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine believes that the loss of Bakhmut will significantly impact other military plans for the spring, we do not see the reserve tank and mechanized infantry brigades being held for a late spring offensive being deployed. Ukraine has very deep reserves and is forming at least one new battalion a week trained to NATO standards from mid-officers down, with a composite of new recruits and experienced soldiers.

A reminder - Ukraine was in far worse shape 365 days ago, and just as the Kharkiv counteroffensive did not win the war, nor the Russian retreat from Kherson, the capture of Soledar, Pisky, and eventually Bakhmut doesn't represent the end of the war either.