Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 28 FEB 2023 14:20 PST - Black Sea Fleet is Out

Black Sea Fleet has 18 vessels on patrol, including five missile carriers - 2 Kilo-class submarines and 3 frigates. There is the potential capability to launch 32 Kalibr cruise missiles.

It is now March 1 in Ukraine, officially marking the 3rd month in a row where the Black Sea Fleet launched 25ish cruise missiles in a month (December, January, February). The lower number is despite the fact that heavy attacks on Ukrainian civilians and civilian infrastructure continued through January. This is in sharp contrast to March and April of 2022 when the Black Sea Fleet was launching 25 or more cruise missiles two to three times a week.

There is only circumstantial evidence, but based on pre-sanction manufacturing capacity, estimated stockpile in February 2022, and the number of confirmed Kalibr launches, we're convinced of two possibilities.

First, Russia has reached the basement of its strategic reserve. They are capable of producing 25 to 30 Kalibr missiles a month and can only use what they produce for future attacks. We believe this is the most likely scenario and have moderate confidence in this assessment.

Second, Russia has been building a supply by limiting the use of Kalibr cruise missiles over the last 90 days for a larger attack. We believe the possibility exists but is unlikely. If this is the correct scenario, production capability could be as high as 40 a month.

The Russian Ministry of Defense isn't going to share how many missiles it has in inventory, but we believe they are at or below the minimum threshold for its strategic reserve. If Russia had to open up a second front somewhere else (Russia is fighting four wars at the moment in Ukraine, the Central African Republic, Syria, and Mali) or they intend to turn their nuclear saber-rattling into reality, they need a minimum stockpile of Kalibr cruise missiles to support those needs. 

We think the probability of a missile strike on Ukraine is high; we're overdue for a large-scale attack (the most recent missile strikes and the drone attack on Sunday were small compared to previous attacks).

There has been a lot of chatter on Russian Telegram and among Russian milbloggers that Russia has stopped targeting Ukrainian power plants. There is also a lot of frustration due to the belief the campaign has ended.

With the arrival of meteorological spring, it is safe to declare the campaign was a failure. Why?

• The near historically warm winter lowered energy consumption and helped turn a potential humanitarian crisis into a major annoyance.
• Western partners provided immediate aid with air defense, radar, and tracking systems, dramatically reducing the effectiveness of the attacks. In April 2022, Russia would need to fire 5 missiles to guarantee one would hit a target - they now need to launch 9 or 10.
• Ukrainian engineers and technicians repeatedly made miracles happen, sometimes during ongoing missile and drone attacks, to rapidly repair the power grid.
• The introduction of large generators enabled the decentralization of the power grid, for example, in Odesa and Lviv, making Russian attacks inefficient.
• Ukraine gets almost half of its electricity from nuclear power. Russia has demonstrated for the time being that a direct missile strike on a nuclear facility remains a red line, as well as disabling the substations and powerlines that provide power for operations. 
• The will and educational level of the Ukrainian people. There were small protests and a lot of frustration, but the will of the people was never broken. The highly educated Ukrainian society has a deep pool of engineers, technicians, and soldiers who were able to quickly learn weapons systems, develop new tactics to intercept missiles, and keep the electrical grid from collapsing.