Russia-Ukraine War SITREP for 05 MAR 2023 23:59* - It's Quiet, Too Quiet

1) Catastrophic losses are 50% or greater loss of combat power. Essentially, the unit(s) that were sent to make an attack have been rendered combat destroyed. It's complicated because the number of soldiers isn't the only measure of combat power. If a group of three tanks supported by a platoon of 24 light infantry soldiers loses all three tanks but only 4 KIA/WIA light infantry - that's catastrophic - their combat power has been gutted as the three tanks are massive force multipliers. 2) This is a good reminder, as we have a LOT of new subscribers, to reshare our war lingo 101 document. Positional fighting is best described as you're defending a bush. It's a lovely bush. It provides great cover, and there is a little gully to lay in. However, 100 meters away, there is a big rock and a bush, which would provide even better cover. So you have to "fight" your way to a better position. Oversimplification, but you're trying to get a better "position," both defensive and offensive. Positional fighting in itself is not defensive or offensive (it could be either) and means there isn't an attempt to break through defenses. 3) We're evaluating what to do here. A year ago, this was more critical, but the prices for all of the commodities we track have stabilized. The rouble is a good indicator of demand for the currency, which provides insight into legal and illegal exports as Russia wants payments in roubles - propping up the currency. The downward trend (about 18%) was caused by the oil price cap gutting demand - which hurt demand for the rouble.

For whom? More dangerous for Putin to bring all those guys home probably.

Wouldn't that be very dangerous?

AnaR737

🙋🏻‍♀️ Hi! Thanks for listening!

3. These are relevant macro factors - dropping ruble and oil/gas price increases affect economic conditions in Russia. However, just because oil price goes up doesn't mean things are improving for Russia - they've cut production significantly to prop up that price but are running out of storage as a result. Not good.

Can't help but think Putin is already 'setting conditions' for the upcoming civil insurrections from the various PMCs. Likely won't be any withdrawal - just cut them loose in the field. Rats in a corner indeed...

Three questions: 1. What does catastrophic losses amount to? A certain percentage? 2. What is positional fighting? 3. What can observers glean from the financial rundown at the end of every sitrep? I’ve never really followed why we put that in there. Thanks! Say hello and thanks to Linnea for us!

From a close friend in the region: "watched his vid about pmc a day ago, i think hes still putanas lap-dog and doing his bidding vs putanas enemies, where putanas involvement would cause the schism within Kremlins tower and make him look weak. he also stated that once Wagners are off the front, and its consequent collapse, everyone would blame them for this collapse, that could spark trouble within moscowias borders as well, so hes like i wont be a scapegoat, where are my ammo and men i was promised. and at the end he even threatened the MOD/enemies with 3rd person characters - master (they call him like that) what if these delays in men and supplies are done on purpose, so that we would fail here, what if someone has made a bet on a military loss, and use us as scapegoats... this part was omited in translated document" Just a different thought, and one that has some merit