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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 19 MAR 2023 23:59* - Bakhmut Stabilizes

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This is Report 333 and is 46 pages.

What's the big story? Not only did Ukrainian forces stabilize defensive lines in Bakhmut, but had success to the north and south of Ivanivske.

The second story? The Russian winter offensive has culminated and they don't have much to show for it.

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Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 19 MAR 2023 23:59* - Bakhmut Stabilizes

Comments

As someone who owns body armor, I have no concern about China sending body armor to Russia - I hope they send more.

My concern isn't the public admission of China assisting Russia. Unlike us who announce to the entire world what equipment we are sending to Ukraine, how many we are sending, what their ranges and limitations are, and when they will be arriving I doubt China would be as foolish as we are. There are people in prison for divulging information like that yet we give it freely to russia so they know exactly where to keep their assets out of range and attack civilian Ukrainian infrastructure with perfect immunity. Russia and China share a 4000 mile border making it very simple for China to ship massive quantities of artillery shells without anyone knowing and avoiding any sanctions. The way I see it, if Russia continues to have their shortage of artillery shells then China has decided to stay neutral. If after about 2 weeks suddenly Russia starts shelling Ukraine at the massive levels like we saw at the start of the war then China has decided to become involved. I don't think there will be any public announcement.

As an historian, I can't help playing the out present as 'history'. And I can't help thinking the defense of Bakhmut will be considered a bold, dangerous, and brilliant move. I wonder if the Russians are remotely prepared for what's coming—and holding Bakhmut will matter not only operationally (in the coming counteroffensive), but possibly even more in morale.

Russia's attack on Ukraine is truly a step in the decomposition of the Tsar and USSR empires, and another symptom of decay. If China joins in this failure by trying to harm the West and especially the United States, it would be a miscalculation as grave as Putin's in his failed 3-day military operation. Although it would be a very unpleasant mistake for the world.

Chinese military equipment could be in a bad position if it does not perform well, also that China may be more interested in extracting resources from a Russia that is sunk and blocked from the outside than in aligning itself so clearly with it. China has a complicated position regarding the war in Ukraine. Currently, it is trying to balance its relations with Russia and Ukraine to protect its long-term political and economic interests. If China aligns too closely with Russia in the war in Ukraine, and provides it with military equipment to continue the war, it could be a politically risky and controversial move, which could have several negative consequences for China, both politically and economically. Economically, China relies heavily on the stability of the global market to maintain its constant economic growth. If China aligns too closely with Russia in the war in Ukraine, it could destabilize the global market and negatively affect China's economy. Moreover, the economic sanctions imposed by the international community on Russia due to the war in Ukraine could also negatively affect China, as Russia is one of China's major energy and natural resources suppliers. If China provides military equipment to Russia, this could make the international community impose tougher sanctions on China, which could have even more serious economic consequences for the country. Furthermore, China may have difficulty justifying the sale of military equipment to Russia, especially if it is considered that this could prolong a war that has caused suffering and death to thousands of people. This could damage China's international image and negatively affect its relations with other countries. In addition, Chinese military equipment could be in a bad position if it does not perform well, which could further harm China's reputation. Therefore, it is important for China to consider the consequences of aligning itself so closely with Russia. Finally, it is worth noting that China may be more interested in extracting resources from a Russia that is sunk and blocked from the outside than in aligning itself so clearly with it. Therefore, China may prefer to maintain a neutral position in the conflict to protect its long-term interests.

Man, I hope that Ukraine's counterattack starts VERY soon. I am really nervous about the outcome of the putin/Xi meeting. There have already been leaks that China sent 1000 "hunting rifles" which look an awful lot like assault rifles along with body armor. Even if they just send artillery shells and anti tank weapons this whole war will take a very nasty turn and all those Ukrainians who died in Bakhmut to weaken Russia will be for naught. Add to that the uncertainty with the upcoming American elections which could result in the complete stoppage of American support. With all due respect to our European allies, after neglecting their militaries for decades, all of them combined couldn't supply even a fraction of the support the United States has been providing. Time is not on Ukraine's side.


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