Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 08 DEC 2022 14:30 PST - Griner Released for the Merchant of Death
Added 2022-12-08 23:03:53 +0000 UTCWNBA basketball player and two-time Olympic gold medalist Britney Griner was released in a prisoner swap for "Merchant of Death" arms dealer Viktor Bout. Bout is the foundation for the movie "Lord of War [edited]" with Nicholas Cage.
David Whelan, the spokesperson for former United States Marine Paul Whelan, who is in his fourth year of a 16-year sentence for espionage in Russia, expressed understanding of why Paul was not released and supported the Biden Administration in their efforts.
The Kremlin is using the situation as a political victory, and unfortunately, the outrage it has created that Paul was not released is happening just as they hoped. Moscow officials told Washington, which was trying to swap Griner and Whelan for Bout, it was Griner or nothing - and that was very calculated.
Paul Whelan, from a Russian gulag, just gave an "exclusive interview" with CNN. This isn't an assessment - this is cold hard facts. Any other person stuck in the Russian penal system and jailed for espionage is not going to have access to the Western press for an "exclusive interview" unless there is a political motivation for Moscow. Whelan expressed disappointment that he wasn't swapped and how Washington didn't do more for him. Second non-assessment - who would be happy about being in a Russian penal colony for four years and facing 12 more years of time?
The words of the movie Men in Black come to mind again.
"A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals, and you know it."
The Kremlin was very calculated in its negotiations and the release. Bout is already starting his PR tour in Russia within seconds of his plane touching down.
Trade Bout for Griner only: United States administration looks weak for leaving Whelan behind
Walk away from negotiations and leave both behind: United States administration looks ineffective for leaving both behind
When exactly has the Russian Federation negotiated as an honest broker in the last decade?
The headlines of the Biden Administration leaving US Marine to Rot in Russian Prison" will play well in certain circles while completely ignoring the political chess game, and that Moscow was expecting this reaction.
It is unfortunate for Whelan that he is a pawn.
Assessments: Tankes and vatniks are going to do what they do.
Comments
I’m just glad that one of them is home, while still sorry for Whelan.
Shervyn von Hoerl
2022-12-12 00:41:27 +0000 UTCIt was "Lord of war" wasn't it? And this was a classic case of "damned if you, damned if you don't"
2022-12-09 08:08:52 +0000 UTCHis days are long over - the iPhone was out less than a year when he was arrested, his contacts are long gone, he'll be considered compromised, he is wanted by at least a dozen nations, and a long list of enemies that would love to see him in a shallow ditch. He was scheduled to be released in less than 7 years in 2029, after spending almost 15 years in jail. The Soviet-era supplies he was trading in have long been consumed by his industry peers. His arms dealer days are over, and his only value at this point is political.
2022-12-09 05:04:47 +0000 UTCI just find it sad/disappointing/expected that no one spoke up for the (at least two) other Americans detained within Russia. You know, the ones without support of moneyed or special interest groups.
2022-12-09 01:18:13 +0000 UTCCan’t say it was a good trade. Someone who is a direct threat to Americans vs someone who is ashamed to be an American. It’s like the Bergdhal/Terrorist trade Obama did.
2022-12-09 00:07:35 +0000 UTCIt is what it’s, isn’t it. People also forget that he is an “ex marine”. An “ex” as in dishonorably discharged. But of course MAGA crowd is gonna lean into it without mentioning this little tidbit. In fact they already started and I had to block some of my extended family on social media. To switch gears a bit. I’m curious if this PR tour is gonna get problematic for Putin. Bout supplied so many groups with weapons and that includes enemies of some entities that currently support Putin or at least remain neutral. For example, he supplied Kurds in Syria and Assad is probably not happy about it. He supplied Hezbollah and can that potentially sway Israel’s neutrality? Even Taliban have a beef against him for supplying Norther Alliance and Putin have been getting friendly with them. I’m just not sure what to read into this, since this might prove a double edged sword for Russia longer term.
Anton Poliakov
2022-12-08 23:21:58 +0000 UTCIt's 'Lord of War' 😉 Excellent movie!
Luke
2022-12-08 23:07:42 +0000 UTC
