Russia-Ukraine SITREP Addendum for 13 DEC 2022 23:59* PST - Kharkiv

For December 13, information about the Kharkiv oblast was omitted from the Situation Report. 

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported an attack on Hryanykivka on the morning of December 14, which was unsuccessful.

Mercenaries with Rybar reported Ukrainian DRG units were operating in Dvorichne and Tavilzhanka, targeting artillery sites. While Rybar did not come out and say, "and it didn't go well for Russia," there wasn't, "and we achieved a glorious victory."

For Rybar, that typically means, "it didn't go well for Russian troops." 

Kupyansk (out of frame lower left corner in the attached map) has been under almost constant artillery fire from Russia - this may have been an effort to provide relief on the west bank of the Oskil. While the punitive strikes on Kherson are getting more attention both inside and outside of Ukraine, Kupyansk is getting hit even harder.

Quick update on Bakhmut.

We are seeing a fresh round of panic posts on social media about Bakhmut, but we haven't been told anything about a Russian breakthrough into the southern part of the city. Another video circulating around that was recorded about 1,000 meters from where Russian troops are actively fighting supports our assessment that it is unlikely the Sparkling Wine factory is occupied and that Private Military Company Wagner Group is clinging to two to four city blocks just west of the ponds and the Ceramics Factory. We cannot confirm if a successful Ukrainian push to the southeast forced PMC Wagner back to the garbage dump (literally, not a metaphor).

We have also seen a video of an intact, captured Russian self-propelled howitzer (SPG) being towed "near" the Bakhmut front. We're working on geolocation (a tough one to do, not a lot to work with). A few possibilities:

• Misattribution; it is somewhere else and not "near" Bakhmut. One of the problems with geolocating anything "near" Bakhmut, when that's all you have to work with, is that it extends from Yakovlivka to Mayorsk. That's a lot of ground to evaluate.
• Older video; given the known weather today, it is possible the video is current; it was sunny. Otherwise, it could be a much older video.
• Ukraine reached the second echelon - somewhere "near" Bakhmut; we find that doubtful as we're not seeing/hearing anything about a major breakthrough for either side.
• Russia pulled up an SPG to the first echelon to use for direct fire like a tank, and it didn't go well. Russia has used SPGs for direct fire, even though they aren't designed for it. Using an SPG for direct fire is mostly a desperation move when armored support is needed, and no tanks are available. However, that could happen with current field conditions due to mud and not a lack of armored assets.