No SITREP For December 15, 2022 - Mini SITREP Below

After a good nine-day run, I've got the post-COVID syndrome exhaustion bad, and one of our leads is sick. The front was frozen today (mostly), so this is a good day to say - people need to rest.

Here are the four "big" stories today.

War Map is updated - you can find it here.

A video was released in Bakhmut of Ukrainian troops walking around without issue and no small arms fire or artillery at the Art Wine Factory in eastern Bakhmut. We believe that Wagner PMC crossed the ponds, challenged control over several blocks, and has been pushed back. The area got covered in PFM-1 antipersonnel mines, indicating that Russian forces are not planning to come to the area - or return - for the short term as they would have to pass through their own minefield they created. Our earlier assessment of "pictures or videos or it didn't happen" was spot on.

Russian forces intentionally targeted the heating and electrical networks in Kherson and Kharkiv. They knocked out power across all of Kherson (in the process of restoration) and heat in some micro-districts. They knocked out heat to large areas of Kharkiv and caused additional power problems. Kharkiv appears to have been done by S-300 antiaircraft missiles that got lucky, as they are only 2.5X to 3.0X more accurate than a German V2 from World War II.

A series of videos have come out that caused an adjustment to the line of conflict around Kreminna. To the southwest, the line moved about 1.5 kilometers to the northeast but remains in the forested area, and Dibrova is still contested. The line got pulled back 750 meters in Chervonopopivka, north of Kreminna, based on videos showing units of Russian troops operating west of Chervonpopivka. This also means the line was pulled west of Pischane. These are small adjustments and, given the nature of the fighting, are likely already inaccurate +/- 1000 meters either way.

The Russian Ministry of Defense claims they stopped an attack on Sofivka on the Kharkiv-Luhansk administrative border. We moved the line of conflict a bit more east, but not to Sofivka, as that would be a significant advance. Russian MOD "we have had a great defensive victory, comrade" update usually means "we lost control of Sofivka," but pictures or it didn't happen. Also, Ukraine has reported positions in Vilshana have been shelled for the last 36 hours, two days after the Russian MOD reported fighting in the general area. There is almost no information from northeast Kharkiv from any source, so I can only write it appears something is going on in that area.

Just as I finished writing this, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine dropped their December 16 AM update (which is our December 15 PM), and they are reporting a very good overnight around Bakhmut, which aligns with the videos we've seen.

GASFU is reporting that attacks on Ozaryanivka, Kurdyumivka, and Andriivka were repelled, validating our December 14 report that Ukraine had retaken parts (or, in the case of Andriivka, all) of the towns. 

One last thing, GASFU is reporting that the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army has to be reconstituted -- again. This is the fourth time the elite Russian divisions have had to be pulled from fighting for being combat ineffective or combat destroyed.

I'm making a TikTok summary of Bakhmut and going to bed.