Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 21 DEC 2022 13:45 PST - Battle for Bakhmut Has Culminated

It is quiet on the Soledar-Bakhmut axis today, and Russian forces have been pushed out of the city and Opytne. We don't know the status of the very eastern sliver of Bakhmut, close to the M-03 (E-40) Highway. There are reports we can't verify that Ukraine has cleared the city to the M-03 (E-40) Highway. There is no sound of small arms fire anywhere in the city, and Ukrainian troops appear very relaxed.

We had noted that the intensity of fighting was slowing 72 hours ago, after peaking on the day PMC Wagner captured Yakovlivka (already being pushed out), advanced into central Opytne (pushed all the way out), reached the recycling sorting plant (pushed back hours later), and crossed the dam and ponds in eastern Bakhmut to hold for less than a day two to four city blocks. Once again, the Russian Ministry of Defense did not leave an adequate reserve to take advantage of those gains and did not have enough motivated and trained "grunts with guns" to hold captured territory.

This would explain why PMC Wagner left the fight in both Bilohorivkas (Luhansk and Donetsk) and why fighting got a lot quieter from Vesele (north of Yakovlivka) to Bilohorivka (Luhansk four days ago.

Russia has exhausted its combat strength on this axis. That does not mean the attempts to capture Bakhmut are over, or that fighting has 100% stopped, only that this current month-long push has reached its culmination point. The Russian Ministry of Defense expended an appalling amount of resources and human capital to capture 85ish square kilometers in 21 days, and that math may be generous. We don't have clear insight on Ukrainian positions south of Bakhmut, with a lot of unconfirmed intel that Russian troops were pushed east and closer to the T-513 Highway.

Most of the captured territory is fields and planted timber with no strategic value, so there is little motivation for the Ukrainian General Staff to counterattack Svitlodarsk - at this time. Is it possible that after seven months of trying to capture Bakhmut, and the whole effort became pointless in September when Russia lost control of all but 1.3% of the Kharkiv Oblast? Yes, it is possible that this is "the end." This doesn't fit for Kremlin strategy, and it would damage Yevgeny Prigozhin's carefully crafted image as the better military planner and leader. 

We'll repeat it again. Through a head-on attack, Russian forces will never capture Bakhmut, Soledar, or Avdiivka (west of Donetsk) with the resources they have today. They don't understand maneuver warfare, they don't have enough skilled troops, they are losing their artillery and armor advantage, they have never held air supremacy, the VKS has been wasted, and winter is finally coming.

It would require 25,000 troops using combined arms to capture Avdiivka in a head-on attack, and Ukrainian forces would still have fire control over the entire city. 

To capture Bakhmut-Soledar in a head-on attack will require an even larger force (we haven't run the math, honestly). My personal guess is at least 50,000 troops and forcing an encirclement will require more to maintain two lines of advance that wide apart and protect the supply lines.

The December 2022 battle for Bakhmut is over.