Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 24 DEC 2022 15:30 PST

LUHANSK

Link to Map 

Summary: There is mostly positional fighting along the entire axis, with weather/ground conditions somewhat improved but slowing operations. Mercenaries with Rybar described it as “taking the day off,” but that is likely some propagandist spin based on videos and social intelligence.

Svatove Axis

• Novoselivske: Russian attack repulsed
• Kolomyichykha: Video showed Ukrainian forces just outside the village, indicating a marginal advance; we move the line of conflict east
• Andriivka: Russian attack repulsed
• Makiivka: Russian attack repulsed

Serhei Haidai, Luhansk Oblast Administrative and Military Governor reported that Russian administrative control in Svatove has been withdrawn and moved to Luhansk.

Kreminna Axis

• Ploshchanka: Russian drone video showed Ukrainian troops just south of the center of the village and advancing north. Mercenaries with War Gonzo report claimed Russian troops attempted to push Ukrainian forces out of Ploshchanka. Based on the Russian video and report, we have moved the line of conflict east of Ploschanka. A liberation report must come from Ukrainian officials or extensive video evidence so the town remains contested.
• Chervonopopivka: Based on a report from War Gonzo of an effort to push Ukrainian troops out of the town (which failed) and multiple reports from Russian sources that Ukraine holds physical control of the P-66 Highway Ground Line of Communication (GLOC – supply line). Based on these reports, we have moved the line of conflict east of the town and Pishchane.
• Dibrova: Fighting and artillery strikes, no change

Lysychansk Axis

Bilohorivka: There is positional fighting only. It became less active after Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group transferred fighting to the Russian military.

NORTHEAST DONETSK

Link to Map 

Summary: On the Donetsk-Luhansk administrative border, Russian forces continue spoiling attacks southwest of the Ukrainian advance on Chervonopopivka. Fighting on the Lysychansk axis has reduced to artillery exchanges, reconnaissance, and DRG activity after PMC Wagner transferred fighting back to the Russian military. Extensive fighting continues on the Soledar-Bakhmut axis, where the situation remains unchanged.

Kreminna Axis

Yampolivka: The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (GASFU) reported fighting for the second day in a row “in the area” of Yampolivka. Out of an abundance of caution and because this indicates this is more than reconnaissance or DRG activity, we have moved the line of conflict west to the Luhansk-Donetsk administrative border. There is no visual evidence to indicate this is a large-scale action, and there have been no reports from Russian sources of any success in this area.

Soledar Axis

• Rozdolivka: GSAFU and the Russian Ministry of Defense (RMOD) reported fighting near the town. GSAFU reported an attack was successfully repulsed, while RMOD reported Ukraine suffered heavy casualties. PMC Wagner would have led the fighting. Yevgeny Prigozhin has repeatedly called out RMOD, the DNR, the LNR, and Ramzan Kadyrov for overstating and/or taking credit for PMC Wagner's efforts. We have expanded the gray area to the southern edge of Rozdolivka because...
• Yakovlivka: GASFU reported that Ukrainian forces defended their positions, likely in the northeastern part of the town, and War Gonzo’s report of fighting “southeast” of Yakovlivka on December 23. If you look at the map, it becomes clear there is a lot of “fog of war” in this area, and one or more entities are not reporting the whole situation. We’re confident there was fighting near Rozdolivka. If it was intense, as RMOD stated, it is highly unlikely that Ukrainian forces are in Yakovlivka.
• Soledar: No change
• Bakhmutske: Continued fighting in the southern part with no change

Bakhmut Axis

• Pidhorodne: No change
• Bakhmut: We believe we have a firm grasp on the situation east of Bakhmut based on several videos released in the last 48 hours. Drone video showed fighting and artillery strikes on the mattress factory on the eastern edge of Bakhmut. Our reluctance to move the line to the M-03 (E-40) Highway based on a drone video only was well placed. We moved the line of conflict slightly west based on the video, but we believe we have a solid understanding of where Ukrainian and Russian forces are in northeast Bakhmut.
• Opytne: Video released this morning claims that Ukraine has full control of Opytne and shows Ukrainian tanks in the Bakhmut suburb with no sound of artillery or gunfire. Based on the video, we have adjusted the line of conflict east and south of the town.
• Klishchiivka: No change
• Andriivka: No change
• Kurdyumivka: No change
• Ozarianivka: Video shows Ukrainian forces occupying former PMC Wagner positions and a lot of dead Wagnerites on the western edge of Ozarianivka. This confirms our earlier assessment that Russian forces don’t hold territory west of the canal, and Ukrainian forces hold a sliver of Ozarianivka.
• Mayorsk: No change

SOUTHWEST DONESTK

Link to Map 

Summary: The most intense fighting continues around Marinka, where recent Russian videos undermine the claims made by the self-declared leader of the Donetsk People's Republic, Denis Pushilin, that Marinka had been captured. Otherwise, there was minimal activity across the front.

Horlivka Axis

• New York: Fighting was reported, with no change in the situation.
• Krasnohorivka: This is the one north of Avdiivka; fighting was reported with no change in the situation.

Avdiivka Axis

• Vodyane: According to Russian and Ukrainian sources, elements of the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People’s Republic continue to try to recapture the town.
• Pervomaiske, Pisky, Nevelske: No change
• Marinka: Russian sources released multiple “see how good we are at war” videos that prove 100% that – they never crossed Druzhby Ave and lost territory in the north-central part of the city. Either that, or they are doing a magnificent job of attacking their own troops. Come to think of it that could be possible too.

Vuhledar Axis

• Novomykhailivka: The 1st Army Corps took the day off.
• Volodymyrivka, Novomairske, Prechystivka: RMOD claimed there is continued fighting around all three settlements, with no other source, Russian or Ukrainian, supporting their report.

KHERSON AND ZAPORIZHIA

On Christmas Eve, Russian forces unleashed indiscriminate shelling across the city of Kherson targeting civilians in the largest attack since the start of the Russia-Ukraine War. Ten civilians have been killed and 55 wounded, and the city is being constantly shelled, including the widescale use of thermite munitions across civilian areas.

The situation at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant is stable, with the International Atomic Energy Agency reporting no shellings in the area for over a month – contrary to RMOD and Russian propagandist claims. Director General Rafael Grossi reported that progress was being made on demilitarizing the power plant. Shuttle diplomacy is used because Ukrainian and Russian officials refuse to talk to each other during the negotiations. Grossi reported the plant is understaffed, and the employees are experiencing significant psychological stress because of working conditions, workload, and the ongoing war.

In Russian-occupied Melitopol, two officers of the Russian GRU were killed in a car bombing on December 23 by insurgents.

BLACK SEA, CRIMEA, MYKOLAIV, ODESA

Supporting our assessment of an elevated risk of missile attacks on Ukraine during Christmas, the Russian Black Sea Fleet now has three missile carriers on patrol with the capacity to launch up to 20 Kalibr cruise missiles.

Russia sources claim that a December 23 explosion in Crimea was caused by an Iranian-sourced Shahed-136 kamikaze drone failing midflight and crashing.

OTHER NEWS

Iranian SRBMs to Ukraine: Ukrainian intelligence reports that Iran continues to refuse to send SRBMs to Russia, countering earlier reports that a deal has been reached. The UK Defense Intelligence reported that Russia is running critically low on cruise missiles and other precision munitions, limiting their ability to launch attacks to just once a week.

United States: The United States Senate passed the $1.7 trillion omnibus 2023 budget, which included authorization to provide up to $45 billion in aid to Ukraine through September 30, 2023, which is the end of the fiscal year. The passage required a supermajority in the Senate of 60 votes and passed easily with bipartisan support. The bill passed in the House, mostly along party lines, and was signed into law by United States President Joe Biden before the Christmas break. In a sign that Congress will be in a state of dysfunction and infighting over the next two years, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell declared he would not bow to pressure from Trump-supported candidates or representatives. While we shy away from reporting on American politics, the implication is Ukraine will almost certainly continue to have broad support from the entirety of the US government.

Germany: The Green Party called for the Russian government to release Leopard-2 tanks to Ukraine and to stop playing regional politics that is extending Ukrainian suffering.

Belarus: Uncool Lando Calrissian, Alexander Lukashenko, is spending Christmas in Moscow with his best buddy Vladimir Putin for a “working visit.”

To all who celebrate Western Christmas, we wish you a joyous, festive, and safe holiday surrounded by those you love. There will not be a Situation Report for December 25. Thank you for your understanding and support.