Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 26 DEC 2022 12:15 PST - Rumors and More Rumors

There are a lot of rumors that exploded over the last 48 hours. 

Ukrainian troops are fighting within or liberated Kreminna.

FALSE. Ukrainian forces have made significant gains we already documented on December 24 and have almost certainly advanced through the forested areas northeast of Dibrova, but they are not in Kreminna. It is reported that Russian military commanders in Kreminna withdrew to Rubizhne. We cannot confirm this, but we believe this is true.

PMC Wagner made significant advances deep in Bakhmut and is advancing in the city's center.

FALSE. There is no change in the situation in Bakhmut, with Russian forces holding parts of the industrial district, held at the garbage dump and likely conducting reconnaissance by fire. Recon by fire is when you send troops forward, knowing they will be shot at to expose defensive positions. The line of conflict is unchanged.

PMC Wagner controls 90% of Opytne and is advancing into Bakhmut from the south.

FALSE. PMC Wagner made marginal gains in Opytne within the gray area in the south and east, but fundamentally nothing has changed. Intense fighting continues with Klishchiivka the ultimate goal.

But all the videos!

OLD. Russian channels are circulating old videos and presenting that as current events. There is a video that was released by Ukraine yesterday that is also old, which unfortunately fueled the narrative.

Russian forces and PMC Wagner are attacking the Russian Ministry of Defense due to a critical shortage of artillery shells.

TRUE. There are two different videos from PMC Wagner, which Yevgeny Prigozhin would not comment on, attacking the Kremlin due to a lack of artillery support. Intercepted radio and cellphone communications are showing a similar pattern, and numerous complaints that the Russian ammunition manufactured in 2022 that is showing up on the front lines has an excessively high failure rate. We had documented complaints about a lack of artillery support weeks ago and how Russia had practically run out of 122-mm ammunition for the D-30 months ago and was running low on 152-mm ammunition. We have also shared numerous videos where the Russian Ministry of Defense of the Donetsk People's Republic shares their "this is our best of our best in artillery" with dubious results and frequent misses. Whether this is short-term due to mud and the successful attacks of several key ammunition depots on the Bakhmut axis or a long-term situation is yet to be seen.

The 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People's Republic has pushed into the western part of Marinka.

FALSE. Not only false, but numerous videos indicate that Ukrainian forces have advanced east and the Russian offensive crumbled over Christmas. Russian sources released a video showing heavy bombardment of eastern Marinka with thermite, while other videos have shown squad-sized groups of Ukrainian troops moving unopposed deep in the eastern parts of Marinka. We have not updated the map until there is an official statement.

Ukrainian forces retook significant parts of Pavlivka.

UNSUPPORTED. We have maintained that Ukrainian forces never lost control of the northwestern part of Pavlivka, and there are reports from Russian sources that the 155th Naval Infantry was transferred to the Svatove-Kreminna axis. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not report any fighting in the area. We list this as unsupported as the Russian Ministry of Defense has repeatedly claimed there is fighting around Pavlivka.

The attempted drone strike on Engels Airbase in Russia was thwarted after the drone was shot down, and there were no losses of airframes.

UNSUPPORTED. Until satellite imagery becomes available, we're at the mercy of the Russian Ministry of Defense and its claims. Geolocated videos that have been triangulated show that the western side of the ramp (where the bombers would be parked, Russia doesn't hold their strategic bomber forces in hangars) was struck, and there was a significant fire after. The Russian MOD is claiming three ground crew personnel were killed and four wounded after debris from a drone they shot down landed in an area away from the aircraft. The fact that a drone could reach the airfield - again - is a condemnation of Russian air defenses.

Dmitry Rogozin had his penis blown off when the restaurant he was eating at to celebrate his 59th birthday was shelled in an apparently targeted attack.

FALSE. This is one of the stranger rumors that started circulating over Christmas. There is nothing to support this. Rogozin's injuries are more severe than reported, with a piece of shrapnel lodged in Rogozin's spine, per Rogozin. The shrapnel has to be removed per doctors because its movement could paralyze or kill him. The surgery is considered high-risk, per Rogozin himself, which is why he was transferred to Rostov-on-Don before moving to Moscow. While this could be dismissed as an attempt to martyr Rogozin, he is considered a loose cannon and a clown - at best - among Russian military circles. While the Kremlin could lionize him if he were to become paralyzed or die, the Russian milblogger community would be "good riddance."

United States National Guardsmen went unpaid because of the $45 billion allocated to Ukraine in the $1.7 trillion omnibus spending package.

FALSE. National guardsmen in three states had pay delayed because Congress had not approved the omnibus bill as of December 23, which was payday, and because the Senate held up the funds. This had nothing to do with money to Ukraine or any other spending measures.

The Russian Government has started to convert saving deposit accounts into war bonds without notifying account holders, causing a run on banks.

PARTIALLY TRUE. Russian banks are facing a run on accounts, and in some cases, some savings accounts have been converted to war bonds to prop up the Kremlin without prior authorization. The bigger issue is pension payments are arriving late, and in some cases, banks are not receiving enough hard currency to give to pensioners. This is created a panic that is feeding on itself.