Russia-Ukraine Mini SITREP for 11 FEB 2023 22:55 PST

Russia-Ukraine War Map 

Linnea was sick today, and things have been intense the last week for the team. Everyone needs a good night's sleep, so it's a short summary. We declared Russia's wide-scale offensive started a week ago, and most analysts have reached the same conclusion. While Russian forces have made some gains, the broad attacks that extended from one end of the line of conflict to the other have yielded little results. We believe there are three factors.

• Poor training, leadership, and low morale: In the Vuhledar, Marinka, Avdiivka, and Siversk operational areas, we have seen and shared many videos that show Russian troops have been poorly trained, panic under fire, and demonstrate that despite receiving eight weeks so training instead of eight days, there has been a little benefit. Mobiks have become more than speed bumps and have graduated to spike strips, but they aren't brick walls.
• Lack of ammunition and artillery support: There continue to be numerous complaints about a lack of artillery support and low accuracy, and when artillery support is delivered, it is inadequate. Russian artillery units report they have plenty of shells but don't have enough charges. The charges are what propels the artillery shell to the target. This forces artillery pieces to move closer to the line of conflict, which explains the sharp increase in destroyed Russian artillery pieces and self-propelled howitzers in the Oryx database.
• Lack of and waste of armored vehicles: Losses for the week in Vuhledar, Avdiivka, and Marinka approached 60 armored vehicles that can be visually confirmed. At Bilohorivka on May 8, we counted 83, which was equivalent to a combat-destroyed brigade. Russia has even fewer armored vehicles now - even if they hold an advantage.

Luhansk: The situation is unchanged in the Svatove Operational Area. In the Kreminna Operational Area, Russian tanks with the 144th reached the same point their forces reached last week before being hit by artillery. Those tanks were hit by artillery and MLRS. We adjusted the map to show an advance towards Yampolivka, which is probably more optimistic for Russia. There is no change around Bilohorivka.

Northeast Donetsk: The situation is stable in the Siversk Operational Area, and fighting has scaled back. In the Soledar Operational Area, neither PMC Wagner nor the Russian Ministry of Defense has declared Krasna Hora captured, but we have coded it that way after the video showed Ukrainian artillery firing on the town's center. In the Bakhmut Operational Area, the reports that Ukrainian forces went on a counterattack in the northern part of the city and pushed back, which was also suggested by NASA FIRMS yesterday, was true. Ukrainian forces retook the northern edge of Bakhmut, pushing PMC Wagner and Russian troops east of the railroad station and taking some pressure off Paraskoviivka to the north. South of Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces continue to hold back Russian troops, although the loss of the T-504 Highway Bridge over the Siverskyi Donetsk-Donbas Canal complicates the situation. 

Southwest Donetsk: Russian forces are reconstituting and dealing with multiple units which are refusing to fight. There was less fighting today and in all the usual places. Vodyane, Pervomaiske, Nevelske, and Marinka. Otherwise, it was mostly limited to artillery and airstrikes.

Zaporizhia: No change, but Ukraine's artillery was especially active around Polohy, and we believe this is an area of interest.

Black Sea-Crimea- Mykolaiv-Odesa: There are two ships on patrol in the Black Sea. Both are missile carriers with a capacity of 16 Kalibr cruise missiles. The Black Sea Fleet has not fired more than 25 cruise missiles in a month since November.

Western Ukraine: No major developments.

Belarus/Ukraine Border: No major developments.

Kyiv-Chernihiv Belarus-Russian Border: No major developments.

Sumy-Russian Border: No major developments.

Kharkiv: Fighting continues to intensify in the Dvorichna Operational Area. Additionally, Kharkiv was hit by three more S-300 antiaircraft missiles used for a ground attack, and there was more artillery activity. If there is any area in Ukraine where it appears Russia is setting conditions for something bigger, is it at Dovorichna and Kupyansk, on the east side of the Oskil River. Both combatants have significant reserves in the area. For Russia, they are northeast of Dvorichna, and for Ukraine, there are in the Kupyansk area. Our view on this is similar to Polohy - we are paying special attention to activity in this area.

General Observations: On February 10, Russia launched 74 cruise missiles, 32 S-300 antiaircraft missiles for ground attack, 28 Shahed-136 kamikaze drones, 90 attacks using multiple launch rocket systems, and 40 airstrikes. This tremendous amount of assets cost the Kremlin around $600 million, which will take two months of production to replace, and caused little damage. Another issue that no one talks about is the improvements in Ukraine's missile defense, which has made almost all of Ukraine a hostile environment for Russian air assets.

Initiative: Ukraine still holds it, but Russia is trying to take it away, and after the first week, not only has Russia been unsuccessful, we may be seeing the momentum tip the other way. DNR leaders have been very vocal that other planned offensives for the previous week have been paused or canceled due to heavy losses, troops being moved to other operational areas, and recent mobiks refusing to fight in numbers we haven't seen since June 2022.

We don't see any signs that Ukraine has dived deep into its existing reserve forces. What Russian milbloggers are calling retreats are troop rotations to maintain physical and mental health. It isn't happening everywhere, and some Ukrainian units share similar complaints to their Russian enemy.

The Big Picture: This is it. Russia could still launch a larger attack somewhere along the line of conflict (the Kharkiv area has caught our attention), but we believe that Russia has started its large-scale offensive and this was not a period to set conditions. That isn't to say that there won't be a larger offensive somewhere outside of Bakhmut in parallel. But our confidence is dropping that we will see something in another part of Ukraine.