Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 12 FEB 2023 17:30 PST - Ivanivske and Stupochky

There is a 20-minute-long video released by the Terra Unit. The bad news is that most clips are more than 10 days old. The good news is the video does provide the first visual information that can be geolocated in this area in weeks. We know that PMC Wagner supported by Russian troops broke through the Ukrainian defenses west of Klischchiivka around January 27 and have been unable to advance for a week. We also know there were reports that Ukrainian forces pushed back up to 1000 meters south of Ivanivske.

The video from Terra showed all of the activity was well south of the current line of conflict. There is no evidence that Russian troops have been able to cross the Siverskyi Donets-Donbas Canal, and most of the fighting is what has been reported. Squad and platoon-sized DRG units fighting in the forested areas west of Klischchiivka with minimal armor support. Russian forces, with one exception, did not demonstrate the ability to execute combined arms maneuvers even at a platoon level. There was also a clip of what appeared to be a rare Switchblade 300 being used to hit two Russian soldiers who were likely setting up a booby trap.

We did terrain analysis based on the video evidence and what has been reported in the last week. Based on the available information, we pulled the line of conflict back between 1,000 and 1,500 meters. The areas that were geolocated where fighting and artillery strikes were recorded are further south, so we relied more on looking at the terrain and considering where would Ukrainian strong points be.

This does not represent new territorial gains but an improvement based on the new intelligence.

You can view the map for the updated line of conflict south of Ivanivske.