Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 12 FEB 2023 17:40 PST - A 3rd Russian Battalion Riots

In the last four days, three Russian battalions have rioted and refused to follow orders. The first one we learned about through Russian sources is from Tuva. The second is from the Republic of Tatarstan, and the third is from Kaliningrad.

The units from Tatarstan and Kaliningrad have released public statements that tell the same story.

• They were sent to Ukraine as a territorial guard or under the promise that they would not be directly involved in the fighting
• They were not trained to be "shock troops," which is Russia's way of saying combat infantry
• They were transferred to the 1st Army Corps of the Donetsk People's Republic
• They had their heavy weapons, and standard kit, which they call "humanitarian aid" (sleeping bags, winter clothes, etc.), taken away
• One group says their equipment was given to DNR military leaders, and the other claims PMC Wagner took it under threat of violence
• They were ordered to attack as "shock troops" in areas where the DNR has had little to no success
• They complained to the Russian Ministry of Defense Prosecutor's Office
• The Russian MOD told them that it wasn't their problem because they were transferred to the Donetsk People's Republic and they needed to contact the DNR Prosecutor's office

First, we hadn't seen this number of refusals and riots since mid-June, when DNR and LNR units were being used for meat waves in Severodonetsk and Hirske-Zolote. Something is definitely not going right.

Second, which is even more peculiar, the Russian MOD announced that the 1st Army Corps of the DNR has been integrated and is now part of the Russian army and is no longer a stand-alone people's militia at the start of the year. Units within the 1st Army Corps even have new unit designations based on these changes (the 6th Motor Rifle is now the 11th, for example). The Russian MOD telling the refusniks to contact the DNR because they are no longer under their command makes no sense and shoots holes in the annexation narrative.

The unit from Tatarstan that turned into refusniks claims they were being sent in small groups to attack "high ground" that the locals say that Russian forces have not been able to capture, and attacking there is akin to a death sentence. The three areas that come to mind where Russian forces have tried to advance for six or more months to try and take higher ground without success include:

• Vesele-Krasnohorivka - this is north of Avdiivka, and we have repeatedly assessed that Russia will never capture Avdiivka without committing 50K or more troops without capturing Krasnohorivka first. Attacks have occurred in this area for years with no success.
• Vodyane-Opytne - Russian forces captured Opytne in August and repeatedly traded control of Vodyane since October. The high ground to the north has been impossible for the 1st Army Corps to capture, and they have dedicated massive resources here for months. Information out of Opytne from a reliable source claims Russian losses of armored vehicles are worse than at Vuhledar - up to 40 main battle tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, and armored personnel carriers from Vodyane to Opytne have been lost since February 3.
• The heights north of Mayorsk - this is another possible area, but less likely as Russian forces likely control the western edge of the heights

The number of troops involved in the refusals is between 1,200 - if they are understaffed battalions - and 3,000 if they are fully staffed. This is in addition to the 600 refusniks who were shipped back to Russia from Luhansk. We're unaware of a brigade worth of Russian troops turning into rioters in such a short time.