Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 15 FEB 2023 12:15 PST - Ukraine Pushing Back Around Bakhmut

Very short Flash Report but an important one.

• Geolocated video shows that the Georgia Legion is much further south and east of Stupochky than anyone thought - there is a lot of snow, so we know it is current - we've adjusted the map and pushed Russian forces further east
• We don't have high confidence that Russian troops remain in the small salient north of the geolocated Ukrainian position, but there is no proof to the contrary, so it remains
• Two geolocated videos show Ukrainian troops reentering Krasna Hora from the west; we've moved the line of conflict and coded Krasna Hora as contested
• Rybar is claiming that PMC Wagner has crossed the M-03 Highway and captured Berkhivka; we checked RSOTM, Gray Zone, and the Concord Media-controlled Russian state media channels - Prigozhin even gave a press conference - no mention of it from any source - we rate this as Rybar fan faction for now but still investigating
• This is the same Rybar that 24 hours ago reported that PMC Wagner had been pushed back from the meat packing plant, which negates that the advance came from the east instead of from the north
• We also checked with DeepState, which tends to be a pessimistic pro-Ukrainian source, and they have heard nothing
• Geoconfirmed video shows a Russian firebase and ammunition depot in Klishchiivka was destroyed - having an SPG with a 25-kilometer range, 5 kilometers from an unstable front line when your defensive line is being recaptured is not a recipe for success (where my arty veterans at - tell them in the comments)
• GLOC on the M-03/E-40 to the north is severed
• GLOC on the T-504 to the south is unsafe/unusable - Russian fire control
• Interestingly, Ukrainian commanders say the road to Krohmove requires additional safety measures and may have "surprises" (e.g., mortar/artillery) - this is counter to what Prigozhin said 18 hours ago
• Daily video updates from Ukraine within Bakhmut had less artillery fire, and it was more distant
• Ukrainian commanders are reporting that PMC Wagner has no more reserve forces
• Seeing more and more reports that Wagner mercenaries are being replaced by Russian mobiks and LNR/DNR for the continued "meat waves" on Ukrainian positions
• Russian VDV appearing more and more during more critical attacks
• The new territory gained may be due to a haphazard troop rotation on the Russian side and a transition from PMC Wagner to Russian forces
• Our observation in late November that PMC Wagner was becoming a threat to the Kremlin due to Prigozhin's ambitions, growing popularity, and commanding a 60K-person well-equipped army/air force (don't forget the 10K Wagners in Africa, that's how we got to 60K) played out
• Our assessment that PMC Wagner became combat ineffective and was teetering on combat destroyed after Soledar was captured was accurate
• The reports that Wagner suffered up to 30K casualties (KIA/WIA/MIA) from December to January have weight
• PMC Wagner cannot replenish troop losses, and videos of sledgehammer executions are not going to help general recruitment

We can't stress enough that Ukraine's situation remains very difficult despite these developments being a net positive. Without a dramatic increase in Russian troops, we no longer believe Russian forces can force a withdrawal or achieve a technical or operational encirclement before February 24. If our assessment is accurate that some of these gains have been caused by a haphazard transition from PMC Wagner to Russian troops, expect Russia to push back once this is completed.

The unknown factor. Did the Kremlin plan for this when they drew up their large-scale offensive, or were the Russian troops being assigned to this Operational Area meant for another attack?

Videos will be in the Situation Report tonight, one is graphic.