Russia-Ukraine War - No SITREP for 16 FEB 23

I'm not feeling well - at all, and I've beaten my post-COVID PEM, and I don't want to go backward. Last night's air raid had me almost to an all-nighter, and I'm leveled. 

Quick summary.

Kharkiv

Dovrichna Operational Area - Russians stepped up their attack on Hryanykivka - the situation is described as "difficult." Kharkiv was hit with multiple S-300 antiaircraft missiles again. 

Luhansk

Most fighting is in the Kreminna Operational Area from Ploshchanka to Dibrova. Fighting is intense, but no significant changes reported. We're seeing claims of progress and ground lost from both combatants, this is the nature of the fighting here.

Lysychansk Operational Area - fighting for Bilohorivka; otherwise, no change.

Northeast Donetsk

In the Siversk Operational Area, Russian troops have taken more of a lead from PMC Wagner. No advances from Fedorivka to Vesele - the Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Brigade continues to earn the nickname we gave the unit - the Gods of War. Russian milblogger space has soured on the ability to move forward in this area.

In the Soledar Operational Area - no change. Attempts to advance on Vasyulivka. 

In the Bakhmut Operational Area, it's a tale of two sides. Intense fighting for Paraskoviivka. We noted in the earlier flash report what many are calling a Russian advance we're calling "that's where we thought the Russians were already." We made a small change, with Rybar reporting that fighting to control the nursery (plants) to the east was ongoing. We had that area under Russian control, so we moved the line of conflict another 250 meters east. Fighting for control in Rybar speak usually means "not actually in the nursery," but we split the difference. We asked, looked, and checked a vast number of sources, and we can find no evidence that Russian troops have physically crossed the M-03 (E-40) Highway into Berkhivka.  We also cannot find any evidence that Russian forces have physically reached the north side of the highway.

In Bakhmut itself no change.

South of Invanske is the only area where PMC Wagner still provides the vast majority of manpower. No change in the situation, but PMC Wagner is attempting to regroup. They are experiencing serious ammunition shortages.

There was a failed attempt to advance on Dyliivka. There is a video of a small group of PMC Wagner forces east of the canal that get hit by artillery.

Reminder - Bakhmut is very fluid, and the situation can change quickly.

Southwest Donetsk

Different day, same story. Fighting for Nevelske, Pervomaiske, Marinka, and Novomykahilivka. The situation in Marinka is difficult, with Russia changing tactics and abandoning a head-on attack. We believe that Russia will (eventually) capture Marinka because there is very little left to defend.

Russian forces claimed they had advanced into the dachas by Mykilske, and as proof, they released a video of dachas being leveled by TOS-1 thermobaric weapons. We have high confidence they did not blast their own troops, so we're confident that Russia is not in the dachas.

Zaporizhia-Kherson

The Ukrainian Air Force was very busy, with the most activity we've seen in this area since the summer. There was significant SEAD/DEAD activity, with several Russian S-300 antiaircraft missile sites destroyed. After the SEAD/DEAD, there was a second set of airstrikes and HIMARS attacks on Skadavosk and Chaplynka, targeting Russian troops and ammunition supplies. There was a significant explosion in Armiansk (Crimea), with Russia first saying it was a Ukrainian drone shot down. Then when the video of a large explosion appeared, the story changed to military training. Ukraine claims it was an ammunition depot, but we're not so convinced - but something big was blown up, and it wasn't fuel.

Yesterday's Missile Strikes

Southwest of Kryvyi Rih, NASA FIRMS showed a large fire about 5 kilometers south of a Ukrainian military facility. We looked at recent satellite images, and the fire is in an area where there is - nothing. This was either an intercepted missile or a miss (the Kh-101 has missed by this much margin in the past. Similar situation on the Moldovan border at Lymanskye. A large fire in an area where there is nothing. A Ukrainian air base is 6 kilometers to the north. This was also either an intercept that crashed or a miss. In Kremenchuk, a large oil depot was hit. Russians claim they hit one transformer farm, but there were no reports of widespread power outages - just some issues in Odesa.

Other

Yevgeny Prigozhin confirmed that the video of a PMC Wagner artillery squad saying they were completely out of ammunition was authentic. He added that he was in Moscow and could secure a supply of 128 120 mm mortars and 40 125 mm HE tank shells. That's enough to support 13 to 30 fire missions, depending on the requests and how accurate the mortar crew is, and enough ammunition for one tank. Prigozhin said he was meeting with everyone he knew in the Kremlin to try and solve the situation. It is important to note that one unit out of ammo does not indicate that all artillery crews are out of munitions. However, there have been widespread reports of ammunition shortages for two months now.

And that's what we know.