Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 17 FEB 2023 12:45 PST - PMC Wagner Advances in Paraskoviivka

Wagner released a picture of four mercenaries in a tightly framed shot in the south-central part of Paraskoviivka. We have no reason not to believe this was part of a larger advance.

The map was updated.

To the south, Ukrainian forces are slowly pushing back PMC Wagner trench by trench and treeline by treeline. Ukrainian forces are attacking at night using DRG tactics. There have been a couple of claims of bayonet attacks in some of the night raids.

Bakhmut is becoming a tale of two fronts. PMC Wagner continues to advance north of the city. Their forces are being squeezed between the 93rd Mechanized Brigade to the north of their advance and so far remain blocked at the M-03 Highway to the south, but they are advancing.

To the south, it is the opposite. Ukrainian forces are slowly pushing back the Russian advance, which peaked between January 27 and February 2. Stress, slowly.

The situation for Ukrainian troops in Bakhmut remains incredibly difficult.

PMC Wagner is increasing its appeals for ammunition in Moscow and online and looking for support from political allies like Ramzan Kadyrov, who has been quiet in this matter.

To the north, Russian forces, supported by the DNR/LNR and possibly Chechen Akhmat (it remains unclear how much of a presence they have), are taking over the role of PMC Wagner. To the south, Wagner continues to lead the attacks but is losing combat power. 

Most intelligence agencies, including the UK Ministry of Defense, are reaching the same conclusion we made on February 4. This is the large-scale offensive, and Russia is not preparing a "shock and awe" strike in one direction because they don't have the capability. We continue to expect the fighting intensity to increase through February 24, and we have very high confidence there will be another wave of punitive missile strikes on February 23-24.