Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 11 MAY 2023 11:00 PDT - Panic in the Russian Information Space

That's not hyperbole. There is panic.

PMC Wagner has been pushed back on the northern and southern flanks in Bakhmut, with Ukraine gaining much-needed separation from the T-506 Highway in Khromove and the T-504 Highway in Ivanivske. 

Our readers/listeners already know a lot of things that others are now reporting. Both Ground Lines of Communication (GLOC - supply line) into Bakhmut are open (they were never closed). While the flanks are cracking, PMC Wagner, inexplicable, is continuing offensive operations within the city instead of switching over to strategic defense. Ukrainian forces retook the Industrial College, and the lines within Bakhmut are frozen.

ASSESSMENT: If I was Yevgeny Prigozhin, I would plan a fighting retreat, as there is no way to plan a retrograde operation, and fall back to the railroad tracks - roughly - holding the best defensive positions that are east or west of that line. I would set up my second echelon on the east bank of the Bakhmutkova River so that if my mercenaries are still getting pushed back, I would use the river as a natural defensive line. If I was Prigozhin. I would allocate my freed-up forces to prevent any further erosion of the northern and southern flanks, but I would not engage in further offensive operations.

If Prigozhin did that, and I was in Kyiv with Valerii Zaluzhnyi, I would not send a large number of troops into the area PMC Wagner withdrew from. I would treat it as a no man's land and work on the flanks as a priority. I would push south of Ivanivske and take Klishchiivika. I can't advance deeper into Bakhmut until the flanks are pushed back. Otherwise, I have the same problem - my forces are hit by three sides.

Semyon Pegov is reporting that Ukrainian forces have launched an offensive on Mayorsk and claims that is proof the counteroffensive has started (because, yes, a non-strategic railroad station is the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive). Russian propagandist Evgeniy Poddubnyy is claiming large columns of Ukrainian tanks are massed on the Belgorod border. His source is "Trust me, bro."

Multiple Russian milbloggers are claiming that Ukraine is attempting to encircle Bakhmut now and claim it could be achieved in short order. The team is skeptical. The Ukrainian General Staff is saying - nothing.

The weather is clear over Bakhmut, and NASA FIRMS does not show any fires in the area. Any large offensive operation of "the counterattack is here" would be preceded by at least a day of intense artillery fire and airstrikes. That hasn't happened - anywhere. 

Having the Russian information space in panic creates a problem. It is creating a lot of noise on what is true and what isn't, which means we have to dig deeper. This is where terrain analysis is going to be critical. Yesterday we quietly updated the map north of Khromove (some might have noticed) based on combat reports, Prigozhin's rants, and terrain analysis. They were accurate. 

Another quiet update was southeast of Velkya Novosilka in southwest Donetsk, where Ukraine, at some point in the last couple of weeks, overtook some Russian positions.

That's one of the reasons why there is so much panic.

Ukraine is making gains now in a number of places as DRG units are finding weaknesses in the Russian defensive lines and have the combat potential and leadership to exploit them. 

Small gains are happening north of Kupyansk (Vilshana), Bakhmut, south of Avdiivka, near the Krasnohorivka plateau, around Vuhledar (Pavlivka), as noted by Velyka Novosilka, and Russian confirmation with pictures and videos of a permanent Ukrainian presence on the east bank of the Dnipro by Kherson. That's part of what is causing the panic. Russian milbloggers can't read the map and figure out "where," so they're spinning in circles. Rants by Prigozhin aren't helping. Additionally, while Russian state media is a well-oiled machine, it is a machine that puts a priority on being first, and right doesn't matter. So everyone is in competition to be - first. That's how we end up with columns of tanks massed at the Belgorod border, as claimed by Poddubnyy.

If a firecracker goes off in Ukraine, it must be the start of the counteroffensive!

Because your editor is offline for a good 10 to 12 hours starting - now - some advice if you try to read the tea leaves.

1) If it's too good to be true, it probably is.

2) Trace the source. Find where it originated. You have insight in the Situation Report for some sources on how much you can trust them.

3) Are reliable Ukrainian and Russian sources saying the same thing - or roughly the same thing?

One closing thought. Rybar, in particular, is infamous for this. Huge Ukrainian offensive, we lost 5 kilometers panic! Guess what? We boldly and bravely fought back, gained not just all 5 kilometers back but two more, and killed thousands of Ukrainian troops. Russia stonked! In reality - none of it happened. There was no big Ukrainian attack or Russian counter, or territorial changes. So some information being spread by Russian sources is meant to create a fake narrative of amazing victory in the face of impossible odds. 

Pictures, videos, or multiple reliable sources saying the same thing or it didn't happen.