Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 12 MAY 2023 09:15 PDT - 2-1/2 Months of Russian Progress Gone in 24 Hours

Last night, I arrived at my hotel, ate, did a TikTok live and struggled to keep my eyes open, and then fell asleep, not waking up until 8:00 AM in total disorientation. The truth matters. There was no SITREP last night because I overslept. I don't know what you would call it.

The big news this morning is on the northern flank of Bakhmut. In 24 hours, Ukrainian forces advanced along the entire eastern bank of the Berkhivske Reservoir (mostly a mud puddle right now) to the dam. Russian forces retreated to Berkhivka. Ukrainian forces are now on the western flank of Yahidne and 2 kilometers from the M-03 Highway Russian Ground Line of Communication (GLOC - supply line).

The advance was so deep, we extended the gray area in the Russian direction to the M-03 Highway. Travel on the T-506 Highway by Ukrainian forces is much easier now, but there is still partial fire control, but not to the same degree as 72 hours. We also have confirmation that Rybar's earlier claim that the engineered bridge on the T-506 Highway was destroyed by Russian aviation was untrue.

The Russian Ministry of Defense put out a statement last night that all claims by Russian milbloggers and PMC Wagner (without naming names) of a Ukrainian breakthrough at Bakhmut were false, and there was no need to panic. Ironically, this caused more panic in the Russian information space, which says something about what Russian milbloggers think about RMOD information. The Russian Ministry of Defense deleted the statement and replaced it with the standard, "planned withdrawal to more strategically advantageous positions." The Russian retreat was so fast and deep, it is very likely Ukrainian forces have captured ammunition and equipment.

Yevgeny Prigozhin made another video this AM calling for RMOD to stop lying, and start supporting PMC Wagner and Russian troops. I know some people still believe this is the biggest psyop ever. You need a filter but Prigozhin has been telling the truth and we maintain, there aren't deep reserves, they're in the wrong locations, and there are no secret piles of ammunition. The fact that Russia is using Luhansk People's Republic 2nd Army Corps as frontline troops indicates there are personnel shortages. These are not frontline troops. They are poorly trained and equipped and at odds with defending areas of Donetsk.

Ukrainian forces made another small gain south of Ivanivske and some limited gains in west-central Bakhmut near the technical and medical colleges.

Reports of significant increases or "massive" Russian artillery strikes are untrue, although there has been an increase. Reports of massive airstrikes with Russian glide bombs are also untrue. Reports that Russian forces took back large areas lost south of Ivanivske, or recrossed the canal - untrue. 

This is not the counteroffensive. This is Russia's collapsing lines for all of the reasons we outlined over the last 3 to 4 weeks. 

Evaluating the map, there is no risk of encirclement of Russian troops in Bakhmut, which remains a Prigozhin doomerism. However, there is a Russian salient forming on the northern flank that if Ukraine were to launch a second attack from the north, could be forced to pull back. If that were to happen, all Russian progress since January 30 on the northern flank would be unwound.

The map is updated.