Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 28 MAY 2023 18:00 PDT - Lukashenko - Uncool Lando Calrissian to the End

In Star Wars, The Empire Strikes Back, Alexander Lando Calrissian Lukashenko is the administrator of the Potato Kingdom, aka Cloud City, which he allegedly won by gambling or a stolen election. Unbeknown to our heroes, the Galactic Russian Federation Empire showed up before they did, and Darth Putin, sorry, Darth Vader, kept "altering the terms of the bargain," with Calrissian declaring, "This deal keeps getting worse." In the end, he losses control of his thiefdom when Darth Vader decides to place a permanent garrison in the city.

We've called the dark potato prince and illegitimate ruler of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, "uncool Lando Calrissian" for over a year, and like his movie counterpart, Russian President Vladimir Putin has finally outplayed his worthy political opponent. By appealing to the dark potato prince's dictatorial ways and desire to hold power until his natural or unnatural death, it is now assured that Russia can take over Belarus, and the world will willingly let it happen. Happily. Gratefully.

Nuclear weapons.

In March 2023, Belarusian officials said that the tactical nuclear weapons that would be stored in their nation would be located in the western region. It is highly unlikely that Belarus and the Russian Federation are building a new storage facility from scratch because of the timeline (by July 1, 2023), and both nations are close to broke. Belarus is covered in Soviet-era military sites, and several are still in use today in various degrees of serviceability. The most promising existing site based on satellite image analysis is in Lida. It is the most secure of the four possible sites. The airbase is located 33 kilometers from Lithuania and 74 kilometers from Poland. Satellite images show it to be the best maintained, and Belarus's Su-25 aircraft are stationed there. Last year, the Russian Federation modified some of Belarus's Su-25s to be nuclear-capable.

Tsel' falls into the "oh please, no," category, given its condition. Bychaŭ is in better condition but sits in eastern Belarus and is also relatively insecure. Baranovichi is another possible location, but it isn't in as good of shape as Lida, and Su-25s are currently not stationed there.

This is why Lukashenko made a fatal mistake in his attempts to keep Darth Putin from altering the terms of their bargain. Once those tactical nuclear weapons arrive, Moscow can make any excuse to claim that the stockpile is threatened. If there is a populist uprising against the dark potato prince Lukashenko? Nuclear weapons are threatened! If Lukashenko is assassinated or dies unexpectedly? Nuclear weapons are threatened! If Lukashenko suddenly tries to pull away from the Kremlin because he realizes "this deal keeps getting worse." Nuclear weapons are threatened!

Russia not only has an excuse to, ehem, protect the world from nuclear terrorism but an excuse to march straight across Belarus to the Lithuanian and Polish border. What's the fastest land route to Lida? From Smolensk, it conveniently passes right through the Belarusian capital of Minsk.

There really isn't a scenario where there would be any legitimate concern. The codes to use the weapons are at the Kremlin, and short of a true threat of annihilation to Russia, they will never, ever give those codes to the potato kingdom. Just as the United States would never give the codes to the 50-ish nuclear weapons store in Turkyie unless it was absolutely necessary. The absolute worst-case scenario would be someone gets access to the nuclear core material and uses it to fashion a dirty bomb.

You don't need to play 3D chess to see the next move. After, ehem, protecting those weapons and occupying the capital of Minsk, Russia simply won't leave. Belarus may exist as a rump state on paper, but White Russia will once again be part of the former Imperial Russian borders.

Lukashenko thought he got an ace. Instead, he is the Joker.

It's only a matter of time.