Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 30 MAY 2023 10:45 PDT - What do we Know About the Moscow Drone Strikes

Not a whole lot. We don't have a contact network in Russia as we do in Ukraine, so we're dependent on social intelligence, Russian state media, the handful of Western journalists still in Russia under the watchful eye of the RIA and FSB, and Kremlin spokespersons.

Officially, the Russian Ministry of Defense is claiming there were eight drones, all were shot down, and there were no injuries. This is a shift from the preliminary report of 13 drones, ten were shot down, three reached their targets, and no injuries. Before the Russian MOD made their official statement, various Russian state media agencies reported 25 to 32 drones, with three reaching their targets and one that was a dud.

Local Moscow officials are reporting two people sought treatment at hospitals but did not require hospitalization. 

How many drones were involved?

If you've followed raw social media during attacks on Ukraine involving drones, every attack in the social information space from non-official sources is always the biggest and loudest ever. It's always a matter of perspective. If air defense missiles are exploding over your head, your point of view will be this is the biggest attack ever. However, that person can't see the bigger picture. 

In the case of Moscow, drone strikes occurred in places where buildings are 20+ stories tall which will create echoes, and local residents haven't experienced an air raid of this scale. The sound of air defense missiles, potentially Russia's own drones for gathering intelligence, will add to the confusion.

The real answer is likely between 13 and 20ish. One thing is certain - the Russian MOD will not provide the real answer.

What kind of drones were used?

That is unclear. At the time of publication, there are theories that these were homegrown "Beaver" drones from Ukraine, repurposed Chinese commercial drones, a drone not seen before, or Israeli drones from a third-party source. It is unlikely we'll get a clear answer that is not a single source.

What about the statements that the videos are fake and show drones flying backward?

The drones involved were a pusher configuration, like the Shahed-136 and the Bayraktar TB-2 drones (but not either of those drones), with the propeller in the rear. Many ICE-powered drones are designed this way. The part that appears to be the "tail" is called a canard and is also part of aeronautical design. The videos are real, and the drones are not flying backward.

Did Moscow's air defense achieve a 100% shoot-down rate?

No. Videos show clear impacts in three locations. The reports of three strikes out of X are accurate. One explosion that is claimed to be an empty field shared by Readvoka seems extremely large for just the package contained in the drone, given the damage visible on buildings that were hit.

Why did Russian Air Defense Underperform?

It may have performed within accepted expectations of a well-executed air defense system - 90%+ if the number of drones involved were in the higher range (20+). With 13 drones, Moscow AD achieved a 77% success rate, which is a poor performance for what is believed to be one of the most AD-dense cities on the planet. 

Just as Ukraine initially struggled with shooting down Shahed-136 drones, modern air defense systems have a difficult time targeting low and mid-altitude propeller-driven drones flying at under 200 kph. Also, Russian AD isn't well integrated with older legacy radar systems unable to communicate with more modern S-400 and Pantsir AD systems.

Ukraine is finding much greater success against the Shahed-136 drones as they've adopted systems more capable of dealing with low and slow drones like the German Gepard antiaircraft system, heavy machine guns, and MANPADs. Air defense missiles and fighter planes flying combat air patrols have a very difficult time targeting these types of drones.

Who is responsible?

Russia has a serious problem.

Maybe it was the Free Russian Legion.

Maybe it was the Russian Volunteer Corps.

Maybe it was the Russian partisans.

Maybe it was Atesh.

Maybe it was angered Kursk-Bryansk-Belgorod groups trying to get the Kremlin's attention.

Maybe it was the Private Military Company Wagner Group.

Maybe it was Igor Strelkov Girkin's "Angry Patriots."

Maybe it was other "turbo patriots" aligned with the philosophies of Alexander Dugin.

Maybe it was a Russian FSB-led false flag operation.

Maybe it was a Russian GRU-led false flag operation.

Maybe it was the Ukrainian GUR.

Maybe it was the Ukrainian SBU.

Maybe it was Ukrainian SOF.

Maybe it was a CIA black ops.

Maybe it was Polish mercenaries.

The Kremlin has spouted misinformation, disinformation, and half-truths for 16 months while angering internal and external sources. While some of the possibilities on this list are flippant (CIA black ops and Polish mercenaries), others are quite possible. the Kremlin has made almost everyone an enemy. If history is a guide, the Kremlin will change its story two to three more times before landing on a cohesive message. We've already seen in the information space the inability of the RIA to control the message.

That message will undoubtedly be "Ukraine did it," which is quite possible. 

Where did the drones come from?

It is very unlikely the drones had the capability to reach Moscow from Ukraine, but that isn't verified. It is more likely the launches occurred within Russia. It is at least plausible that this was a Ukrainian operation, knowing how porous the Russian borders are. However, an internal effort from within Russia can't be ruled out.

Russian politicians are threatening a nuclear response. Should I build a backyard bunker?

It is a day that ends in "y," and Russia is always threatening a nuclear response. Strong nations don't flippantly threaten nuclear retaliation, it is an act of political weakness. No, you don't need to go to your bunker.

How will Russia respond?

Russia's response will be the same response they've always fallen back to. Target civilians and civilian infrastructure.