Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 07 APR 2023 22:30 PDT - Russian Forces Likely Shelled Donetsk

Donetsk has been shelled two days in a row. Yesterday's strike was on a military target, as outlined in the Situation Report, and regrettably, because of the proximity of the logistics node to civilian businesses, Russian officials claim seven people were killed.

Donetsk was shelled again today, with 1 person killed and 16 reportedly injured. In preparing tonight's Situation Report, we found compelling evidence that Russian forces shelled Donetsk and not the Ukrainians.

The short video clip from Russian state media is from Donetsk on Chelyuskintsvi Street, west of the Central and Covered Market. The shell struck the western trolley track north of the Trolley stop at 161 Chelyuskintsiv Street. This was a very easy location to geolocate. The shell disabled Tram Route Number 1 between Vatutina Avenue and Hurova (Gorova in Russian) Ave, per local reports.

In the video above, we can clearly see the shell was traveling from the north to the south, parallel to the street and the tracks. The impact crater shows more debris on the northern side, confirming the direction of travel of the shell. This gives us insight on where it originated.

Heading north, you have to get to Oleksandropil before you reach Ukrainian territory. Is it possible? Yes, but this crater is not consistent with a NATO 155 mm artillery shell or a Russian D-20 152 mm. That leaves the D-30 122 mm or mortars. However, ammunition for the D-30 is in very short supply for both combatants. Mortars don't have the range to reach this area, nor does the M777 or the D-20. 

While final arbitration would require a visual inspection and trained Explosive Ordnance Explosive experts, the body of evidence strongly suggests the shelling came from the direction of Mineralne, Kashtanove, or Kruta Balka - all under Russian control.

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