Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 03 MAY 2023 11:00 PDT - Kremlin Drone Attack?

At roughly 02:30 hours Moscow time, a small drone struck the Kremlin, appearing to target the Russian flag flying from a flagpole sparking a small fire. At the time of the strike, at least two people were on the roof of the Kremlin, climbing toward the targeted area.

Link to Drone Strike 

At 02:43 hours, a second drone was allegedly shot down or brought down using electronic warfare. 

The first drone started a small fire on the top of the Kremlin, which was quickly extinguished.

Within two hours, multiple high-resolution videos had been released, and the official Russian State Media position is this was an assassination attempt against Vladimir Putin and was conducted by Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy denied Ukrainian involvement in a press conference this morning.

Hot Take

• This does not align with Kremlin talking points for other major events, such as the sinking of the Moskva or the drone attack on Engels 2 Airbase, where there were denials and shifting stories before an "official version" was reached.
• The CCTV network around the Kremlin is not open to the public as live webcams and tightly controlled by the Kremlin, incredibly the cameras were all pointing in at the right direction at the right moment to capture the attack from multiple angles.
• A drone of that size made by any nation, at least that is known, is incapable of flying that distance from the Ukrainian border regions to Moscow. The drone was significantly smaller than the flag on top of the pole and about 2X the size of a person. The video provides enough information to determine the scale.
• This event happened during the tightest security leading up to Victory Day celebrations in Moscow's history - including the height of the Soviet era during the Cold War.
• The Kremlin area has been subject to GLONASS/GPS jamming for years, and it is well documented that satellite-based navigation systems frequently don't work around the Kremlin, creating problems for drivers and tourists. Despite the tight security, it appears the GLONASS/GPS jamming system was inactive.

The initial view of the team is this was either an internal strike by a growing partisan movement within Russia or a sloppy attempt to rally internal support for the message that Ukraine presents an "existential threat" to Russia backed by "the collective West."

To the claim that this was an assassination attempt against Vladimir Putin, we find it highly unlikely his sleeping quarters are in an upper dome of the Kremlin. In the 21st century, it is nearly impossible to assassinate any world leader, let alone one as paranoid as Putin. 

While many are looking at this incident as a ridiculous attempt to claim the Kremlin was attacked, most internal consumers of state media within Russia and consumers of their disinformation on the African and South American continents, as well as India - which the Kremlin heavily targets - will accept this as fact.

On the surface, it is unlikely this is meant to serve as a justification for a larger attack on the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and the targeting of "decision-making centers." Nothing is preventing Moscow from targeting decision-making centers beyond 15 months of warfare, which shows that Russia prefers soft targets, civilians, and civilian infrastructure. Given the state of Ukrainian air defense today, the only way Russia has a high probability of hitting key governmental locations is with multiple ballistic missiles. Something in very short supply.

Is there any argument to support that Ukraine did do this? None that we can find, as this doesn't even feel like "poking the bear," given the extent of the damage and the timing of the attack. Is it possible? Definitely, and we have no evidence that absolves Ukraine of responsibility. If we were to give it a percentage, we put it under 2%. As we like to say, the chances are never zero.

If this wasn't a staged or internal partisan attack, it is not surprising that air defense was not activated. The Patsir systems deployed across Moscow would be overkill, a drone of this size is very difficult to shoot down, and firing even small arms into the air within the heart of Moscow had a high risk of collateral damage.

However, a drone of this size would require a SOF or GUR team to enter Russia with multiple drones, launch it undetected, navigate it to the Kremlin undetected, and defeat all existing security measures while scoring a perfect hit on the target the diameter of a flag pole. We have countless videos from Russia and Ukraine showing how hard it is to hit larger static targets. If the drone had missed the flagpole, based on where it impacted, it would have missed the Kremlin altogether. Then they would need to slip out of Russia - undetected.

Another theory being floated is that this will serve as an excuse to cancel the Victory Day Parade for "security reasons." If the United States President can walk around Kyiv during an air raid with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, we're quite sure Moscow can be secured for Victory Day celebrations. If the events are canceled or announced as dramatically scaled back, was this a cover for the lack of available military hardware and troops for the parade? This also feels like a far-fetched scenario, but we'll see what Russia declares in the coming hours and days.