Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 09 MAY 2023 02:00 PDT - Prigozhin Goes Scorched Earth Against Kremlin

We won't have a full translation until later in the day but in a 27-minute video released just seconds after the end of the Victory Day Parade in Moscow, making a number of scorching claims.

Before the Victory Day Parade in Moscow, PMC Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin released a shorter video saying, "Congratulations to everyone on Victory Day! So as not to spoil the holiday for anyone, the full video where I talk about the ammunition situation, we'll show it at 10:40 MDT exactly, after the end of the Victory Day Parade. Since it's 3:30 in the morning, there's still time. In case we get the ammunition, we won't show the video.

He showed the video.

• Prigozhin claims regular Russian forces not only are not fulfilling their promises to protect Wagner's flanks but accused one unit, and a competing PMC, of abandoning their positions.
• ASSESSMENT: There may be some truth to this on the northern flanks, with reports that Ukrainian forces made gains near the Soledar Operational Area near Sakko i Vantsetti, Vasyukivka, and Sil. This is unconfirmed.
• He claims that Kremlin leaders are "deceiving" Putin about the real situation in Ukraine and Bakhmut.
• He claims he is still on a 10% allocation for his ammunition, that it was personally ordered by the Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and that no extra arms or munitions have been delivered as promised.
• ASSESSMENT: This is unreasonable to expect a change in supply in under 48 hours, not only for Russian logistical capabilities, almost any military on the planet
• He claims that his earlier request to be released from Bakhmut was denied, and if his forces did withdraw, it would be considered treason.
• In his video statement, Prigozhin accused the Ministry of Defense of treason.
• He added that Russia is incapable of defending itself and unprepared for the upcoming Ukrainian offensive.
• He claims he will stay in Bakhmut "for a few more days."

We stand by our assessment that PMC Wagner has not been singled out for ammunition allocation and that Russian forces are suffering from ammunition shortages theaterwide. The rate of consumption was unsustainable. Large quantities of ammunition were interdicted from June to October, other ammunition storage sites were improperly maintained, rendering Russian stockpiles useless, and production can't keep up with demand. Additionally, Russian forces have an even more acute shortage of powder charges and ATGMs.

Any change in ammunition shipments will come at the expense of other military units. Further, if PMC Wagner withdraws, reserves being held for the Ukrainian offensive will have to be deployed.

It is noteworthy that Gerasimov was not at the Victory Day Parade, but he may have been the "designated survivor," and there may be nothing more to the story. Prigozhin is not going to let this go, and if the "fix" is more ammunition, in our assessment, this will spiral out of control because there is no additional ammunition with supporting powder charges.