Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 23 JULY 2023 23:59* - Another Russian Ammo Depot Explodes

Lukashenko has been conducting a crackdown in Belarus and so he and Putin probably meet to share conspiracy theories. From the NYT Jul 22 2023 In Belarus, the Protests Were Three Years Ago. The Crackdown Is Never-Ending. Aleksandr G. Lukashenko brutally repressed those who opposed his claim of re-election as president. The crackdown on dissent has only deepened since.

Thank you for this. I was having trouble making sense of the Lukashenko charade, the "Wagner visit to Poland" etc. and this makes me think the potato king may be throwing his weight around. A while ago some Russian propagandists were saying that Ukraine as a proxy for the West was turning into a "pet werewolf". Well, what about Belarus? Putin just gave his most servile ally a band of battle-hardened mercenaries as opposed to nukes he cannot use unless Putin allows it. If he is having second thoughts it may be late. I hope. We'll see, from what I have seen since the war started, when Lukashenko and Putin meet in person there a substantive reasons to do so.

AnaR737

ISW report for JULY 23, 2023 has some other interesting reading of the tea leaves (unfortunately not a reference to polonium) between Putin and Lukashenko's meeting. https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-23-2023 'Russian President Vladimir Putin revealed his continuing concern over the potential threats that the Wagner Group and Yevgeny Prigozhin may pose to him through symbolism and posturing during a meeting with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in St. Petersburg, Russia.' 'Lukashenko told Putin that the Wagner Group in Belarus will remain in central Belarus likely subtly reminding Putin of the threat the Wagner military organization still poses to him and underlining Lukashenko’s control over that power. Lukashenko’s statements were likely meant to make Putin reflect on the uncomfortable (for Putin) fact that Wagner’s new garrison in Belarus puts its forces half as far from Moscow as Wagner’s previous base in southern Russia. The Wagner Group’s previous base in Krasnodar Krai was about 1,370 km from Moscow, whereas its new base in Belarus is about 720 km along an excellent military highway.'' They also highlighted continue Ukrainian activity on the Dnipro East Bank. Still causing the Russians problems and concerns. (Other reports have the Ukrainians expanding there bridgehead and establishing new ones on the East Bank after weeks of failed Russian attempts to destroy them.) 'Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to skirmish in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast and on the Dnipro River delta islands. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces still maintain a presence in east bank Kherson Oblast near Oleshky and that Ukrainian special forces are probing Russian defenses near Hola Prystan (10km south of Kherson City) and Krynky (31km northeast of Kherson City)'

Re: Reznikov's comment about July 2024 Ukraine in NATO by July 2024 was the guess I made during the summit. Does this mean he believes that the coldness of winter will kill off the rest of the ticks? And maybe an end of the war by March or April? Or am I getting ahead of myself?

WthinWthout