Russia-Ukraine Flash Report for 27 JULY 2023 17:15 PDT - Ukraine Forces Cross the Konka

A lot is happening today, so the SITREP will be condensed, combat only, with the weather. We're constantly updating the map. We may have to go back to mini SITREPs a couple of times a day like we were publishing in June when the first phase of shaping and subordinate operations started.

Ukrainian troops have successfully established a bridgehead on the left (east) bank of the Konka River, west of Dachi and Oleshky. In this location, they still have to cross the Chalka River, but the loss of the Kakhovka Dam has significantly reduced the flow of the Chalka. Ukraine now has three bridgeheads on the left (east) bank of the Dnipro River, and Russian units are screaming they are low on ammunition and have no reserve forces. 

The interdiction missions in Crimea, the earlier and temporary loss of the Chongar Bridge, the destruction of railroad lines, and sending units like the Russian 810th Naval Infantry to Zaporizhzhia are exposing weaknesses. We also can't help but wonder if the tens of thousands of artillery rounds, mortars, and Grad rockets fired at civilians and civilian infrastructure since November 2022 at Free Kherson had been held in reserve. What would the situation on the east bank look like today? There probably wouldn't be three bridgeheads over the river now.

We still do not believe there will be a brigade-sized or larger amphibious crossing of the Dnipro, and we consider these actions as spoiling attacks meant to lock troops and equipment in place. However, we do recognize that a crossing here represents the shortest distance to the Crimean Isthmus and that Russian minefields and defenses were destroyed when the Kakhovka Dam was wrecked. We also recognize that there is a lot of intelligence indicating that more aggressive action in this area is possible.