Flash Report 14 AUG 2023 - 13:30 PDT - About Andriivka by Klishchiivka

On August 12, we shared a geolocated video of a Russian T-90M tank in western Andriivka firing at Ukrainian positions. Based on that information, we moved the line of conflict to the west but maintained Andriivka was a gray zone.

On August 13, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reported a Russian offensive near Andriivka failed. We noted we didn't adjust the map because - pictures or it didn't happen.

Oh, there are pictures now, and they'll be in tonight's SITREP.

Russia lost three T-90M tanks, two infantry fighting vehicles, and one armored personnel carrier in a failed attack. We moved the line of conflict back to railroad tracks.

The failed offensive involved reserve troops, and we are seeing more second and third-echelon units being moved to the front. 

You may have noticed a shift in tone in the Western media in the last 48 to 72 hours of, "Wait, Ukraine actually might pull this off," from the doom of two weeks ago. I know some of you have expressed that you've been feeling pretty down, and as a team, we were too.

So what's happening?

• Ukraine has shifted its tactics and adapted from the very hard lessons learned through June and the second half of July. That change is resulting in new advances.
• The introduction of DPICM (cluster munitions) is thwarting Russia's use of human wave formations to overwhelm Ukrainian positions. This protects newly liberated territory while increasing Russian attrition.
• Many Russian units have been in the country for ten or more months with no rotation. They are facing physical, emotional, and psychological exhaustion, which is impacting morale.
• Russian forces are operating with a "not one step back" defense. While this has been highly effective for over two months, attrition is forcing Russian commanders to deploy reserve forces meant for the second echelon of the Surovikin Line. 
• Ukraine has penetrated Russian minefields or reached the outer edges in three to four locations, allowing armor to come back into the battle just as Russian forces are suffering from logistical issues.

Does that mean a big breakthrough is imminent?

No.

It does mean that Ukrainian forces have brought the situation back under control, and we're starting to see steady daily advances again. 

There are 17 settlements that are gray zone, which includes Robotyne and Urozhaine. Some of these have been in the gray zone for weeks.

Russia is doing everything it can to prevent further advances at Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Kurdyumiva because if Ukraine brings them under full military control, the GLOC to Opytne into Bakhmut falls under Ukrainian fire control and supporting Russian forces west of the Bakhmukova River within Bakhmut gets a lot more complicated.