Russia-Ukraine SITREP for 19 AUG 2023 23:55 - The Thrill of Victory and the Agony of Defeat

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This is Report 471, which is 71 pages and - gulp - 8,850 words. Kudos to the team for getting this done in nine hours.

Did we mention we are hopeful we'll be announcing who our new podcast host is in 6 to 9 days?

What's the big story? Ukrainian forces continue to make progress at Robotyne, with strong evidence that Ukrainian forces have already advanced almost to Novoprokopivka.

What's the second story? A Russian Iskander-M SRBM struck the Drama Theater in Chernihiv, killing 7 and wounding 144. There are huge questions about why there was a gathering of drone experts in the building and why information about it was publicly leaked.

Assessments

• What is the battlefield situation in Marinka
• Analyzing Ukraine's offensive at Orikhiv and how we know the minefields are breached
• There was a massive explosion in the Khmelnytskyi region; what do we think happened
• How did a meeting for drone experts bring death and destruction to Chernihiv
• We assessed in June 2022 that the Kremlin would dismantle PMC Wagner and eventually take over their Africa operations; how well has that aged

Summary

•  Podcast restarts by the second week of September
•  Positional fighting continued in Kharkiv
•  Ukrainian forces made marginal gains in the direction of Kuzmyne
•  Fighting in the Soledar area of operation (AO) restarted
•  Fighting south of Bakhmut continues with no changes
•  Battles for Marinka have become mostly artillery duels
•  Russian forces partially withdrew from the Vremievsky Ledge between Pryyutne and Staromaiorske
•  Reports of significant fighting in the area of Dorozhnyanka are likely overstated
•  Russian forces have likely been pushed to the southern outskirts of Robotyne
•  Our in-house analysis concludes that Ukrainian forces are flanking Robotyne and are on the outskirts of Novoprokopivka
•  Minister of Internal Affairs for Ukraine, Ihor Klymenko, said that the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Power Plant and dam will not be restored
•  It is likely a Shahed-136 kamikaze drone struck a legacy ammunition depot in the Khmelnytskyi Oblast on August 18 – 19, damaging hundreds of homes
•  In the Zhytomyr oblast, an “infrastructure” facility has hit by a Shahed-136 kamikaze drone on the night of August 18 – 19
•  An Iskander-M short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) hit the Drama Theater in Chernihiv, killing seven and wounding 144
•  An explosion at a warehouse for the State Research Expert Forensic Center of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the Svyatoshyn District of Kyiv was badly damaged by an explosive device
•  A Ukrainian kamikaze drone struck the Soltsy Military Airfield in the Novgorod region of Russia, damaging between one and four Tu-22M3 strategic bombers
•  A kamikaze drone struck the train station in the city of Kursk, wounding five
•  The head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), Vasyl Malyuk, explained how Ukraine badly damaged the Kerch (Crimean) Bridge on October 8, 2022
•  Four more Ukrainian commissariat employees were arrested for selling fake medical exemptions
•  The Ministry of Defense of Ukraine has approved the internally developed Skynight first-person view (FPV) kamikaze drone for serial production
•  Ukraine and Sweden signed an agreement for Ukraine to manufacture CV-90 infantry fighting vehicles (IFV)
•  Two-hundred Ukrainians completed their training in the operation of the United States M1A1 Abrams main battle tank (MBT) and are awaiting deployment
•  Minister of Defense of Ukraine, Oleksii Reznikov, said that Ukrainian pilots have already started training to fly the F-16
•  Prime Minister of Sweden, Ulf Kristersson, and President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, during a joint press conference, confirmed Ukrainian pilots had started familiarization training with the Swedish JAS-39 Gripen fighter plane
•  German arms maker Rheinmetall confirmed that its armored vehicle service facility in Ukraine will start operations by August 31
•  Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner Group-aligned Telegram channel Gray Zone confirmed reports that the Kremlin is working to dismantle the company and form new PMCs to fight in Africa
•  The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency reported that the number of Wagnerite mercenaries in Belarus has dropped to 4,400 due to pay issues
•  In Mariupol, Chechen Special Purpose Mobility Unit (OMON) forces and Russian troops had another fratricide incident
•  Reliable Russian milblogger Andrei Morozov (Murz) reported there is a critical shortage of tires for Russian military equipment
•  A video showed the extent of damage to the Russian-flagged and owned oil tanker SIG after it was struck by an Mk.5 uncrewed surface vessel (USV), better known as a Sea Baby
•  The Russian State Duma denied rumors that there would be another wave of mobilization in September 
•  The spokesperson for the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of the Russian Federation, Andriy Yusov, said that a new wave of mobilization in Russia is possible and reported that 20,000 men are added to the Russian Federation Armed Forces each month
•  The lawyer for imprisoned former Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) Colonel Igor Strelkov Girkin reported he is in failing health
•  The head of the Center for Information Relations and Information Protection of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia for Yakutia, Lieutenant Colonel Ruslan Tyumentsev, is under criminal investigation for earning his commission with a fake college diploma
•  The Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs has requested the State Duma to modify the Russian constitution to permit warrantless searches
•  The former commander of the Russian Southern Military District, Colonel General Gennady Zhidko, died due to an undisclosed illness
•  Former Russian Lieutenant General Genadiy Lopyrev died just days before his release from a Russian penal colony of sudden-onset leukemia
•  Russian Lieutenant Colonel Dmitry Shkurin, the illegitimate head of the migration department of the Ministry of Internal Affairs in the Kherson region, was arrested for human trafficking
•  Russian volunteer soldiers from the Perm Krai region complained to President Vladimir Putin that their regional governor does not pay signing bonuses like in other regions of Russia
•  Near Klishchiivka, Ukrainian soldiers found an abandoned panel truck with up to 50 dead Russian soldiers from the winter and early spring inside
•  In occupied Henichesk, Russian collaborators are refusing to provide medicine or medical care to anyone without a Russian passport
•  The U.S. has extended the temporary protected status of Ukrainian refugees through April 19, 2025
•  The High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, called Russia equal to  a gas station owner with an atomic bomb
•  The Latvian security service detained a taxi driver suspected of being a Russian spy
•  In February 2023, three Bulgarians were detained in the United Kingdom after they were accused of being Russian spies
•  The 350 basis point increase to the prime lending rate by the Central Bank of Russia improved the value of the rouble
•  Russian consumers are being warned that non-durable goods prices will increase 10% to 20% within the next four to six weeks

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