Russian- Ukraine War Flash Report - July 15, 2023 10:45 PDT - Another General Fired, New York Times 20% Equipment Loss - Doctor's Orders

Updated with the correct date.

You're Fired

There are widespread reports that Russian Airborne (VDV) 106th Division Commander Major General Vladimir Selivestrov has been relieved of command. The 106th is in the Bakhmut area of operation and reportedly plays a supporting role due to Ukrainian artillery fire making maneuvers difficult.  Selivestrov was dismissed allegedly because he raised similar concerns to that Major General Popov, former commander of the Russian 58th Combined Arms Army, made.

The reports are not going over well in the Russian information space, and a little more than three weeks after Prigozhin's failed insurrection, the predicted purge is ongoing at the Kremlin. So far, it has targeted what Russian circles consider competent leaders and, among their subordinates, trusted and well-liked.

Sun Tzu wrote you never change generals in the midst of the battle. Russia has changed two in less than a week in the areas of operation they are facing the most challenges.

While history teaches that changing generals has resulted in better outcomes, purges based on political loyalties have rarely improved the battlefield situation. Firing generals sounding the alarm on exhausted troops, heavy casualties, perceived ammunition shortages, low morale, and non-existent reserves is not a winning strategy.

New York Times - 20% Equipment Losses

You're likely seeing soundbites if you don't have a New York Times subscription that in the first two weeks of Ukraine's offensive, they lost 20% of their equipment. The TL;DR or I don't have a subscription, answer: Ukraine lost 20% of the equipment committed to the offensive. The shift in tactics resulted in the loss of another 10% over the next six weeks. Ukraine committed about 15% of its heavy equipment to the ongoing subordinate attacks and shaping operations.

Wait, doesn't that mean those units are combat ineffective?

Yes. That's why Ukraine rotated many units off of the FLOT over the last two weeks and brought in free reserves. Something Russia doesn't have.

Doctor's Orders

Doctor Mrs. Malcontent has written a prescription for me to touch the grass. Happy wife, happy life. I'm going to go touch the grass. Situation Reports continue, maybe some bullet reports. It's a good junction as Ukraine has shifted to the same summer strategy of July 2022. Small light infantry attacks to push the lines, attrition on Russian supply depots, and targeting ground lines of communication.

Podcast frequency will increase starting on July 16. Some other announcements are coming soon on new partnerships.

One last point of housekeeping. We were going to start TikTok again on Wednesday. However, the platform was not permitting videos longer than 15 seconds to publish on Wednesday and Thursday. There will be some flash report style TikTok's from the road for the next few days and back in the studio on July 17.