Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 29DEC23 15:30 PST - A Lot of Updates

A lot is going on today. Here is what we know at this hour.

LLS Novocherkassk Update

A letter allegedly from Russian officials is circulating that claims 74 sailors and contractors were killed and another 27 wounded in the missile strike on the Project-775 Large Landing Ship (LLS) Novocherkassk on December 26. This aligns closely with our excellent source on all things Black Sea Fleet, who shared with us on December 26 that there were 94 causalities. We cannot verify the document that is circulating, and officially, the Russian Ministry of Defense is reporting no military personnel were lost in the blast. Long-time readers/listeners/TikTok watchers know we have extremely good intel in this region, so we believe the claim has significant weight.

Defiant Zelenskyy

While Russian President Vladimir Putin maintains a low profile, afraid of COVID, arrest warrants from the ICC, his own people, oppositional political figures, the rants of Igor "Girkin" Strelkov, and naked bodies slapping together, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy took a little trip to Avdiivka. He visited with commanders, presented state awards to members of the 110th Brigade, and stood outside 3 kilometers from the forwardmost line of friendly troops (FLOT) and about 2 kilometers from the Avdiivka Coke Plant.

Missile and Drone Attack Update

Search and rescue operations are still ongoing after the largest air raid against Ukraine since February 24, 2022. The Ministry of Internal Affairs is reporting 30 dead and 160 wounded. Our analysts have been able to verify,

• Dnipropetrovsk: 6 dead, 30 wounded
• Odesa: 3 dead, 20 wounded
• Kyiv: 9 dead, 30 wounded
• Lviv: 1 dead, 30 wounded
• Kharkiv: 3 dead, 13 wounded
• Zaporizhzhia: 8 dead, 13 wounded
• Sumy: 3 wounded
• Cherkasy: 9 wounded
• Kherson: 3 wounded

It is likely that the number of dead and wounded is being updated faster internally now and that regional reports are lagging behind. This is normal, and Ukraine does not have a history of grossly exaggerating civilian losses. We are not questioning the claim by Ukrainian officials that 160 people were wounded. 

It does not appear there was significant damage to Ukraine's energy infrastructure, and there were no announcements of rolling blackouts or major energy shortages.

During and after the attacks, Ukraine's weather was partly cloudy to cloudy. NASA Fire Information for Resource Management Systems (FIRMS) doesn't have complete coverage. We were able to detect several thermal anomalies in remote forested areas that indicate successful missile and drone intercept crash sites.

There is a thermal anomaly at the natural gas pumping and storage site at Novoselytsya in the Ivano-Frankivsk Oblast. It is unclear if this is part of the Brotherhood Pipeline network that provides Russian natural gas to Hungary and Slovakia. There was also a smaller/cooler anomaly at an industrial site in Drohobych, Lviv. During the overnight attack, there was a report of an explosion in the settlement. We know from OSINT that the weather in Kyiv was clear, and despite the conditions, the warehouse fire and apartment building fire did not appear on NASA FIRMS. This suggests that the fires in Novoselytsya and Drohobych burned long and hot enough to be detected.

We have high confidence that Russia did not strike any significant large supply or logistics nodes for ammunition. We are also confident that claims by the Russian Ministry of Defense that F-16s were destroyed on the ground are false.

Ukrainian air defense struck 79.7% of viable targets but did not intercept a single ballistic missile. Fourteen missiles that hit Kharkiv were S-300 air defense missiles used for a ground attack launched from Belgorod and we do not consider S-300/S-400 missiles as viable targets for intercept. Local residents in the Belgorod region shared pictures of a large crater and damaged homes from an early morning explosion. A failed Russian missile probably caused the blast. In our assessment, 157 of 158 missiles and drones launched reached Ukraine.

Attacks with the S-300/S-400 system are made using a ballistic trajectory and a flight time of under 3 minutes. No air defense system on the planet can identify the launch, calculate the trajectory to make a threat assessment, create a firing solution, and intercept with a high success rate in that amount of time. In our assessment, Ukraine intercepted 114 out of 143 viable targets.

As for the multiple strikes on Kyiv, it is possible that Ukraine relocated the Patriot Air Defense system. Russia hadn't attempted a major missile strike using ballistic weapons since June and only used a small number of Kh-101 missiles on December 8. It is also possible that due to restricted support from the United States, Ukraine was forced to ration its supply of PAC-3 interceptors. Another possibility is that as Russia launched a saturation attack intent on overwhelming Ukrainian air defense, the Kh-47 launches were purposely timed toward the end of the air raid. The M-104 batteries for the Patriot air defense system may have been empty and undergoing reload when the Kinzhals were launched.

Polish Air Space Violation

Polish and NATO officials stated that they have verified that a Russian cruise missile entered Polish air space, flew for approximately three minutes, and then returned to Ukrainian air space. The violation has been met with condemnation, with Poland putting their air defenses on "high alert" after the incident. The Russian chargé d'affaires to Poland was summoned for an explanation, and Russia is denying the incident. Polish officials said that during the attack, two Polish F-16 fighter planes were scrambled and an aerial refueling tanker.

The deputy foreign minister of Poland, Wladyslaw Teofil Bartoszewski, told the Polish news agency PAP,  "I told the chargé d'affaires clearly that the repeating of such attempts will be met with a stronger reaction from the Republic of Poland because it is testing our effectiveness and our approach to defense."

Bartoszewski added that if the missile had flown "a little deeper" into Polish air space, it would have been shot down.

ASSESSMENT: Yes, and in our assessment, Poland should have shot the missile down. If the current official version of events passes scrutiny, we firmly believe that this incident was intentional as a test of Polish and NATO response and with the secondary goal of deceiving Ukrainian air defense operators. Based on last year's incident when an errant Ukrainian air defense missile killed two Polish farmers, Ukraine has almost certainly tightened its rules of engagement along its border with NATO nations and Moldova. Intentionally flying a missile into Poland to have it exit and strike a Ukrainian target would take advantage of these tightened rules. However, that would also mean Russia had the specific intent to violate Poland's air space because the Kremlin firmly believes that the only response from NATO and its allies will be angry tweets (xeets???), meaningless public statements on government websites, and polite requests to respect national sovereignty. President Putin only understands two things. Force and the believable threat of force. There are over 22 months of history that show when the countries that border Ukraine and Russia coil up, shake the rattle, show their fangs, and hiss, Russia backs down.

United Nations Response

Seven hours after the Russian attack started to wind down, Secretary General of the United Nations Antonio Guterres tweeted (xeeted?), "As hostilities in Gaza intensify, I remain gravely concerned about further spillover of this conflict, which could have devastating consequences for the entire region. I reiterate my call for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire & release of all hostages."

Ukraine and 30 other U.N. member states have called for an emergency meeting of the Security Council due to Russia's attack on Ukraine. With Russia holding a permanent seat on the council and holding veto power, any vote or declaration will be pointless.

ASSESSMENT: Nope. Not going there. Feel free to talk amongst yourselves. 

Kherson

Ukrainian forces continue to devastate Russian troops trying to break the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro and Konka Rivers without success. In response, while Russian troops complain about a lack of artillery, drones, and close air support, Russia is massively attacking the city of Kherson. Zarina Zabrisky is on break and returned to Odesa so we don't have boots on the ground at this time. Videos show that continuous Russian strikes on the city have razed entire districts of civilian housing. The primary reason why casualty numbers are relatively low is almost 80% of the population has evacuated. Within private Telegram channels, Russian troops continue to question the Russian strategy and complain that requests for artillery support go unanswered while they hear Russian artillery shells flying overhead to strike the right bank.

ASSESSMENT: With ongoing wet crossings and military operations on the left bank, not every Russian artillery shell, drone strike, missile, Grad rocket, and bomb is striking civilian targets. However, a majority of these strikes are and include near-daily potential violations of international humanitarian law (IHL). Some, like the targeting of hospitals and two marked Red Cross humanitarian aid warehouses, are blatant, while others will require deeper investigation. 

The events of the last week should serve as a reminder and a warning. Russia has no intent of negotiating in good faith for a ceasefire or armistice. Russia is destroying the city of Kherson brick by brick, not due to military necessity but because it is unlikely that Russian troops will ever be on the right bank of the Dnipro again, even if Ukraine stands alone. While some of the 43 missiles and drones that penetrated Ukrainian air defenses hit military and military-industrial targets, we have accounted for 16 (not including the 14 S-300s that struck Kharkiv) that hit purely civilian housing and civilian infrastructure. At least two strikes - one in Dnipro and one in Odesa - are probable gross violations of IHL.

It needs to be repeated loudly. The world can face this now in Kyiv and break the Russian war machine, or the world can do it in 3 to 5 years in Warsaw, Berlin, Helsinki, or Bucharest.