Israel-Hamas War Flash Report 27JAN24 18:00 PST - Genocide, War Crimes, and UNRWA Firings

It's been 112 days since the October 7 massacres in Israel that started the Israel-Hamas War. If I were a lesser man, I'd share some of the hate mail received during our period of coverage. We gave up because the information space was and still is an impossible tangle of disinformation and misinformation. If it's unclear, that's directed at all parties.

I have been deeply concerned about words with heavy weight and meaning that have been tossed around, like ordering fast food at a restaurant. Once upon a time, the word Nazi meant something. Now, if the waiter brings you a flat Coke, they must be a Nazi. Ha! Ha! The word has been diluted to the point of being meaningless.

Words like genocide, apartheid, and antisemitism should not be used so lightly. Further, these words have very specific meanings that go far beyond an entry in the dictionary or the summary paragraph in International Humanitarian Law.

After listening to the case presented by South Africa that Israel is engaged in genocide, the International Court of Justice issued a complex ruling on Friday. Palestinians and their supporters declared victory. Israel and their supporters declared victory. The claimant and the defendant didn't win, and let's be clear: no one is winning the Israel-Hamas War. The biggest "losers" continue to be the Palestinian people. The reasons for that are far more complex than Israel is bad, or Hamas is bad.

I believe in one thing. The truth. The truth matters. Nothing else. Especially when it comes to war.

Has Hamas committed provable war crimes? Yes. Without question. There are nine grave breaches of the Geneva Conventions. Think of these as the worst felonies one could commit. Number nine is taking hostages. Hamas took and is still holding hostages. That's the truth. Has Hamas committed other war crimes? Almost certainly, but they aren't as easily proven as taking hostages.

Has Israel committed provable war crimes? Almost certainly, but they aren't as cut and dry as the singular grave breach Hamas has committed by its own admission. Some of you don't like that answer. I don't like that answer. But I didn't write the IHL and ratify it. The authors of more than 150 nations that want to have rules of war wrote it. Still, they are invested in not having the rules be so strict that they can't wage war. That creates a lot of loopholes and sets some very high bars.

A valid war crime investigation takes years. It takes even longer when one or both combatants don't cooperate. Neither Israel nor Hamas is cooperating with the ICRC, and the Red Cross and Red Crescent aren't very eager to do their jobs. Historically, we've seen how long it takes in the Balkan states, in Rwanda, and in Ukraine. The investigation and trials for the shooting down of Malaysian Air Flight 17 in 2014 took over eight years. Slobodan Milošević was accused of grave breaches of the Geneva Convention and genocide in 1999 and died during his trial in 2006.

No one on our team expected a finding of genocide on Friday. One analyst had an excellent and simple explanation of what the International Court of Justice decided.

"Hey, Israel, you need to make sure that things don't get to the level of genocide. We're pretty sure you're committing war crimes, but that's going to take further investigation."

Israel didn't get the full dismissal it sought, and South Africa didn't get the genocide declaration it sought. In my assessment, it's a fair decision. Why? Because based on what's available in the public domain and what can be spotted as maybe the truth.

I can give one example of where Israel had almost certainly done just enough to avoid one claimed war crime. When the ceasefire ended on December 1, the IDF introduced the map of Gaza divided into grids. A system was created where the IDF could provide warnings in advance that a grid would be bombed (or ground operations or artillery) within a certain window of time. They also provided information on what grid to go to where there won't be an attack.

This appears dystopian and callous. However, the legal foundation for indiscriminate attacks has been litigated in the ICJ and the ICC repeatedly and the case studies and case law are in the public domain. For right or wrong, because I didn't write the law or hand down prior legal decisions, Israel did this to insulate themselves from the war crime of indiscriminate attacks. When you read previous findings, this went above and beyond the bar already set. Yes, IHL is supposedly set up to protect civilians and combatants, but it was written by countries that want to wage war. The ICJ and ICC had determined that dropping leaflets or a public radio broadcast met the bar.

This is not a defense of IDF tactics. This is not a declaration that what is happening is moral, right, and justified. That will be decided years from now in the International Court of Justice and/or the International Criminal Court. That's why, for me, the decision of the ICJ was not surprising. As the EIC, I'm not a judge - it isn't my job.

Also, on Friday, the United Nations announced it had fired an undisclosed number of UNRWA contract employees to investigate if they were directly involved in the October 7 massacres. The allegations and evidence were presented by Israel to the U.N. and UNRWA, who made the decision to sever ties with "several" contract workers.

Wait, I thought the number was 12, and they were confirmed to be involved, and they used U.N. equipment and vehicles. This is exactly why we stopped covering the Israel-Hamas War. The allegations are coming from Israel, and the number "12" came from a U.S. State Department announcement about continued funding to UNRWA. The actual number has not been released, and the U.N. has not provided a full account beyond "several." There is nothing in the public domain showing the specific allegations.

A former U.N. employee told us that the bar to get fired from the U.N. is extraordinarily high, and in their assessment, the evidence presented had to be "overwhelming." 

On Friday, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said he was "horrified by this news" and vowed that a quick and thorough investigation would be started immediately. The head of UNRWA, Philippe Lazzarini, said a full investigation was being carried out "to establish the truth without delay," adding that the agency terminated contracts with staff members "To protect the agency's ability to deliver humanitarian assistance."

Nine countries, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Finland, the United States, Australia, and Canada, have announced they are temporarily suspending funding to UNRWA. The E.U. said they would wait for the completion of a full and thorough investigation before deciding next steps.

On Saturday, Lazzarini called the suspension of aid by the nine nations as an act of "collective punishment" against the Palestinian people.

This isn't the first time UNRWA has been accused of malfeasance, resulting in the suspension of aid. In 2019, a report first published by Al Jazeera found that UNRWA senior management had engaged in “misconduct, nepotism, retaliation, discrimination and other abuses of authority, for personal gain, to suppress legitimate dissent, and to otherwise achieve their personal objectives."

Switzerland, the United States, the Netherlands, and Norway temporarily suspended aid to the organization, and ultimately, UNRWA Commissioner-General Pierre Krahenbuhl was fired. Krahenbuhl will be the new head of the International Committee of the Red Cross in the spring of 2024.

If you don't follow our socials, yes, I personally shared another post calling for U.N. Secretary-General Guterres to step down. It isn't over this single incident. It also goes far beyond the Russia-Ukraine War. To the outside observer, the U.N. is a broken organization.

Full stop. Does the U.N. still do good work around the world in economic development, mitigating humanitarian and medical crises, and in hundreds of projects that aren't sexy enough to make world headlines? 

Yes.

Still, under Guterres's watch, the U.N.'s credibility is crumbling and at the worst possible time. Iran chairing the U.N. Human Rights Council would be comical if it weren't so abhorrent. The weakening of the International Atomic Energy Agency is another example of a critical failure happening before our eyes. The UNRWA allegations are more the metaphorical straw that broke the camel's back than a singular incident that screams the U.N. needs new leadership and a new direction.

Back to the allegations - were UNRWA employees directly involved in the October 7 massacres? Some news outlets will have you thinking yes. Other news outlets will have you thinking it is a false allegation from Israel. I'm not going to tell you what to think. Right now, we don't know. The actions of the U.N. and UNRWA suggest they were presented with significant evidence. 

In the end, the Israel-Hamas War goes on. Too many people are dying, and neither party is being honest in their declarations of wanting an equitable peace. That's a critical difference between Russia and Ukraine. Russia can go home and still exist and still be glorious Russia. Ukraine is facing an existential threat. In Israel-Hamas - both are facing an existential threat. How do you solve that peacefully and equitably and in a way that both combatants will accept the outcome?