UPDATE: Were Iranians on the Il-76 that was Shot Down and was a POW Swap Planned?

We have new Patreons, so a brief recap. On January 24, a Russian Il-76 was shot down approximately 60 kilometers east-northeast of Belgorod, near the settlement of Yablonovo. Immediately after the crash, Russian officials reported that 63 were onboard, and all were killed. Minutes later, they reported that 65 Ukrainian POWs, six crewmembers, and 3 Russian personnel were on board, and all were killed.

We prepared a bullet summary on January 24 that you can read here to get back up to speed.

Also, on January 24, we pieced together a timeline of the incident using Russian sources and linking to the official reports from the Russian Ministry of Defense and Belgorod governor Vyacheslav Gladkov. We also linked to local Belgorod channels and news sources. That analysis showed that the official timeline released by the Russian Ministry of Defense is impossible. You can reread the timeline in the January 24 SITREP, which starts on page 41.

About 90 minutes after the crash, we received a report from a reliable and trusted source in a third-party nation (not Ukraine/occupied Ukraine, Russia, or Iran) that the plane had Russian officials and Iranian drone instructors and technicians on it as part of a rotation. I explained on January 24 that we made the editorial decision to release that information only on Twitter as a response to the Russian disinformation campaign while we worked on verification and because of the quality of the source.

We received a list of names, ages, and ranks or roles and started our verification process. Here is my mistake. While Russia has cracked down on social media and has improved operational security (OPSEC), we are very skilled at verifying names, ranks, and positions within the Russian Federation Armed Forces. Members of the IRGC have much smaller social media footprints, and Iran is vastly better at OPSEC than Russia. I never believed this would be easy, but I understand now how much I underestimated the task ahead.

We have been able to verify 11 names of 58 provided (ten less than the 68 initially told). That does not mean the remaining names are fake, nor does it mean the remaining names are valid. Of the 11 names, all 11 are in the IRGC Aerospace Forces, and eight are involved in drone operations in some way. That's what we call a smoking gun, but there's another problem.

We had expected a more vigorous campaign from Russia, based on past events, putting pictures and videos of the deceased from the flight in the public domain. We believed when that happened, it would reveal uniforms, insignia, and records because historically, the Kremlin has been outstanding at proving it lied while trying to prove they aren't lying.

Instead, the pictures and videos revealed a different truth. While Russia has shared videos and pictures from the crash site, including showing a single unblurred intact corpse, two blurred possible corpses, and about 20 body fragments, that doesn't account for 63 people, 74 people, 80 people, or 86 people, as our source claimed. One of the videos we reviewed had elements that were clearly staged, as we outlined in the January 28 SITREP. 

We are stuck with two challenges now.

First, we cannot prove the identities of anyone on the plane at the time of the crash beyond the five crewmembers Russian sources claim were the fight crew. We have 11 confirmed IRGC members identified, but we can't prove they were on the aircraft. We have the intelligence report from Ukraine that the FSB prevented Russian senior officers and unidentified VIPs from boarding the plane, but we can't prove that's true. 

At least not as of January 31, 2024.

The second problem is the Russian videos and pictures of the crash site show a half-hearted investigation at best with a contaminated scene, and no evidence supports the reported number of casualties. If we accept the body fragment pictures shared by Russia from near the crash site as 100% authentic, we have no way of knowing that a burnt corpse, a twisted hand, or part of a skull with some flesh was a crewmember or a passenger. We further can't identify anything about that individual.

What about some of the documents like passports shared? Russia has repeatedly shared passport photos as official information that are later revealed as misattributions to people who were alive and well or died months earlier.

What about the flight tracking data in the public domain that shows the Il-76 flew to Iran, then potentially Syria, then Egypt, and then Belgorod, turning its transponders on and off during segments of its flight? This is a known route for arms supplied by Iran that are flown into Belgorod.

Yes, this is also a smoking gun, but it does not prove that IRGC technicians and instructors were on the plane. It raises questions about the Russian claim the plane had Ukrainian POWs on it. To believe that requires believing that Ukrainian POWs are being held in Iran, Syria, or Egypt or were on the plane for the entire flight. Then, the POWs never deplaned when the Il-76 departed Belgorod for the last time.

What would be acceptable proof? When we look at other incidents in recent history beyond the Russia-Ukraine War, independent investigators are brought to the scene. Videos and pictures would reveal a thorough crash investigation that took months. The pictures, names, IDs, date of birth, date of capture, military unit, rank, and where held would be released in an organized document. It wouldn't be a "leak" of names and birthdates with a 28% error rate.

I will say it again because it's important to repeat it. If the International Committee of the Red Cross were doing its job, if the United Nations weren't toothless and could apply enough pressure to allow the IRGC to do its job, there would be no questions or doubt about who was on the plane. The fact that the ICRC said that they aren't involved in any aspect of POW exchanges in the Russia-Ukraine War without adding, "and we should be as mandated by international humanitarian law," is inexcusable.

SIDEBAR: If you donate blood, please do not stop donating to the Red Cross. If there are alternatives in your area that don't operate as a "for profit," then yes, consider your alternatives. In many areas, the Red Cross is the only option for people who want to donate blood, and it is a critical resource for the medical community.

What about the fact that Kharkiv has been repeatedly attacked by Shahed-136 drones this week instead of S-300 antiaircraft missiles or SRBMs? We looked into that. If Shahed-136 drones started launching from the Belgorod region this week, that would be another smoking gun that a batch of technicians/advisors were flown in, and others were being flown out. But it still wouldn't be - proof. It would have been enough proof to keep me from this analysis today. 

We can confirm the drones that attacked Kharkiv were launched from the Bryansk region of Russia, where drone operations have continued since late 2022.

The shift to Shahed-136 drones from S-300 antiaircraft missiles suggests that something has happened with the availability of S-300 launchers in the Belgorod region. But again, that doesn't prove S-300 missiles were on the Il-76 (a common theory) and were being transferred to the rear areas of the Russian front due to increasing Ukrainian drone strikes. It also doesn't prove that S-300 launch complexes were on the plane.

What about Russia's claim that POWs were on the airplane and that a POW swap of 192 for 192 was to happen on January 24?

Ukraine verified that one of the largest POW exchanges between Russia and Ukraine was supposed to happen on January 24. They also verified that for prior exchanges, which are done on the Sumy-Belgorod border, Ukrainian POWs have been flown into Belgorod. However, Russia has coordinated with Ukraine during these events in the past, and limited ceasefires were declared.

The GUR reported two days ago that an exchange was coming, and yesterday, it was reported that Russia refused to release the remains of the allegedly killed POWs. It's also important to note that the list of 65 names of the Ukrainian POWs "leaked" by Russian state media contained the names of 18 individuals previously swapped. The rest were either Azovstal defenders who surrendered on May 12, 2022 or were captured prior to March 2, 2022.

We've seen another refusal to release remains after Russian alleged in July 2022, Ukraine killed POWs held at Olenivka. In that incident, approximately 60 Ukrainian soldiers from Mariupol were killed. The United Nations declared that Ukraine was not involved in the explosion in any way and considered the incident a Russian war crime after a lengthy investigation using the information in the public domain. Russia also refused to cooperate with that investigation and barred the ICRC from entering Olenivka.

But there is the final issue with the dead POW claim. Russia and Ukraine conducted a POW swap today of 207 for 195 - 15 more than originally claimed by Russia that was supposed to happen on January 24.

Based on everything we can and can't prove at this point, I am walking back the claim that members of the IRGC were on the Il-76 when it was shot down. We cannot prove or disprove the information because of the fog of war. Additionally, through January 31, the evidence presented by Russia does not support its claim that there were dozens of people on the aircraft. I thank you for your understanding as we cut through the fog of war and continue to honor the truth.

It is likely that in the future, we can make a final determination of "right or wrong" as more information trickles out. The Russian information space (and the number of bots and oppositional marketing firm operations) was quiet yesterday due to an Internet blackout. However, it appears that Russian state media has mostly moved on from this story. It is worth noting that President Vlad - the impaler - Putin, renewed the claim that a Patriot air defense missile shot the plane down.

We remain highly skeptical that any Ukrainian was on the Il-76, based on the available evidence, the Russian timeline as they presented it, and the local reports supporting the Il-76 departed from Belgorod. That evidence is further supported by the aircraft traveling in an east-northeast direction in the video showing its final moment.

Why did the plane crash? The video of the last 27 seconds of the flight clearly shows the nose of the Il-76 missing and major damage to the fuselage forward of the wings. As the plane rolls to the north, engine number three tears off from the stress. Despite Russian claims that the pilot was steering the plane away from Yablonovo, the visual evidence indicates the flight crew was already deceased or had fallen further west of the main crash site. 

For who shot down the airplane, based on the Russian timeline, as outlined in the January 24 SITREP, we believe it is highly likely this was a friendly fire incident. Moscow changed the timeline twice, with the 27-minute shift in the final "official version" putting the takeoff time of the Il-76 after the air raid alert had ended in Belgorod. We maintain that if Patriot batteries were in the Kharkiv area, they would have been used to stop the January 23 SRBM attack on the city. 

We maintain that something valuable to the Kremlin was on the Il-76, given the ferocious reaction and disinformation campaign compared to the downing of the U-50A AWACS near occupied Berdyansk earlier in the month. In that incident, Russia preferred to declare the U-50A was shot down by friendly fire than admit it was caught in a radar ambush. The manipulation of the timeline and the removal of the Ministry of Internal Affairs from the crash site also indicate a lack of transparency. In the case of Olenivka Prison, Russian officials allowed entire groups of journalists and propagandists to examine the site, with pictures and videos showing multiple corpses.

I thank you for your understanding and continued support. We will continue our investigation but are lowering the priority. If new evidence is shared or found, we will let our audience know.