Flash Report 11 OCT 2023 - 15:15 PDT - Avdiivka Update

Russian forces have continued their attacks on Avdiivka from multiple directions putting tremendous pressure on the Ukrainian defenses. There are videos that are emerging from yesterday (working on date confirming, most are easily geolocated because we've seen fighting in these areas so many times). Russian losses are in a word, massive. 

Yesterday, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine claimed 91 armored vehicles and 34 tanks were destroyed theaterwide. We don't share those reports (and we don't share the Russian ones) but back of the envelope math we believe reality is closer to half and I could write a long explanation of why and support it with data from Oryx.

No, Kyiv isn't willfully lying. There is fog of war. An armored vehicle can be reported destroyed by local troops but it may only be damaged, or abandoned, or it was an abandoned vehicle that got destroyed and technically counted twice, etc. Russia has a different problem as soldiers and commanders are paid bonuses for the number of armored vehicles and artillery pieces they destroy, so there is a big incentive to inflate the numbers.

However, even dividing by half, 41 armored vehicles and 17 tanks in a day is what we would call a "good day at the office." That's more than a battalion completely destroyed.

Losses for Russia at Avdiivka yesterday are in the dozens - just Avdiivka. In our assessment, the three battalions involved are in a combat ineffective state - and that might be generous.

For newer subscribers (welcome) some background. We had assessed in April 2022 that for Russia to capture the Avdiivka salient from Krasnohorivka to the north to Marinka to the south, will require a commitment of 30,000 to 50,000 Russian troops supported by armor, artillery, and aviation in a weeks long battle. Ukraine maintains 5,000 to 10,000 troops throughout the area, their defenses are as good as the best built sections of the Surovikin Line, and some of the most experienced and battle hardened leaders are assigned to the region. The terrain is also favorable for Ukrainian defenders. 

This is why after the Kharkiv Counteroffensive in September 2022, we couldn't understand Russia's continued obsession with Bakhmut and Soledar, which lost their strategic value.

While yesterday's attack was better coordinated from a combined arms standpoint, something Russia has never really demonstrated above the company level, they used the exact same approaches they've used since February 2022, striking the exact same hard points. Igor Strelkov Girkin is sitting in a jail cell in part for condemning these tactics.