Israel-Hamas/Russia-Ukraine Flash Report 29 OCT 2023 - 16:30 PDT - Dagestan Jewish Attacks Explained

Before we get to the situation, some history is required.

Imperial Russia and the Soviet Union were deeply anti-Semitic. Modern antisemitism, rooted in part to the Protocols of Zion, was produced in Russia, although it is murky if Tsar Nicholas II commissioned its writing. It is not murky that he used the writings to justify the pogroms of 1903 - 1905. In 1994, when the Soviet Union collapsed, the mechanisms that both supported antisemitism while balancing actual physical violence against Jews collapsed with it. The Soviet Union had already started a program of immigration in the late 1980s, which saw a wave of Russian Jews arriving in Europe and the United States, many from Odesa (Odessa at the time).

A second wave started in 1994, with Russia working with Israel to streamline "the Jewish right of return." Hundreds of thousands of Russian Jews (full disclosure - including my wife) fled the ashes of the Soviet Union. Some to escape persecution, others to escape the economic collapse. Israel has hundreds of thousands of Russian Jews, with many holding dual passports.

Dagestan is a majority-Muslim federal district in southwestern Russia. It is part of the Caucuses and, in 1999, was invaded by the Islamic International Peacekeeping Brigade (a terrorist organization) from Chechnya in an effort to create a Muslim nation that would include the Russian federal district and Chechnya. The Russian military pushed the IIPB out, but it has left the North Caucuses unstable ever since, aided by one of the highest unemployment rates in the Russian Federation and what some call an ongoing ethnic cleansing. Russia's minority populations are being disproportionately mobilized to fight in Ukraine and are largely used as poorly trained shock troops. The area has tremendously well-developed natural resources, but the money generated flows to Moscow and oligarchs.

How "spicy" is Dagestan?

They were one of the few federal districts to have widescale anti-mobilization protests in September 2022, including blocking buses Russian military convoys, and closing highways. In February 2023, when a wave of anti-Islamic protests erupted in Moscow over news that the largest mosque in the Russian Federation would be built, Dagestanis vandalized Russian Orthodox Churches. They launched widescale protests, culminating with at least one historical church being burned down. A second fire was deemed suspicious, and while we have little faith in Russian State Media, to tell the truth, it is true that building code for electrical writing in Russia is not well adhered to.

A combination of oppression, poverty, low mobility, an undercurrent of orthodoxy in religion, and several extremist Muslim antigovernmental groups (terrorists) makes Dagestan a powder keg.

Another factor is since Russia increased its war of aggression in Ukraine, another wave of Russian Jews fled - 18% of the entire population in 2022 alone - with three motivations: fears of growing anti-Semitism, the physical means due to education level and economic mobility, and men of conscription and mobilization age avoiding the draft. A subset of these recent immigrants to Israel hold racist views more aligned with white supremacy despite their Jewish heritage. These views intersect with the nationalist ultra-Orthodox views of some members of the current Israeli government. There is also deep resentment within Israel toward a wave of North Africans that arrived in the 2010s. Throw in a leader who is under criminal indictment for corruption and was trying to gut the judiciary, which would give him near-dictatorial powers, and you have a completely toxic soup. 

If you're a Russian or a dual Russian-Israeli citizen, and you want to leave Israel and return to Russia on an airplane, you currently have two choices: Israeli El Al Airlines or Russian Red Wing Airlines. And for thousands of stranded Russians, their only "sin" was visiting family or going on vacation. They have nothing to do with the Israeli government, Hamas, Palestine, the terror attacks, and the ongoing war. From Tel Aviv, Red Wings flies to three airports - Sochi, Vody, and Makhachkala and there are only 17 flights a week combined.

On Saturday, the President of President of Türkiye, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, held a government-sanctioned rally attended by 500,000, and we provided parts of his speech in the October 28 Israel-Hamas SITREP. However, you can't point at speeches in Türkiye and rhetoric from Iran, which is the same rhetoric since 1979, as the only cause of the ongoing violence in Dagestan.

The Israeli government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, has committed diplomatic malfeasance since October 7. Tel Aviv has ignored its allies that called for a more calculated and measured response and deep consideration of "what comes after," with U.S. military advisors leaving on Friday. Any flicker of political goodwill that existed on October 7 after the massacres on Black Sabbath is gone.

The world is increasingly against Israel's ongoing offensive as disproportionate and for taking no consideration for Palestinian civilians, aid workers, and foreign nationals still trapped in Gaza. And to be clear, we are deeply troubled by Israeli tactics, which skate to the ragged edge of war crimes serious enough to catch the real attention of the ICC. If you've followed the Russia-Ukraine War, you know that bar is extremely high. Off the record, we have been told that U.S. officials are completely exasperated, and Israeli-U.S. relations will be damaged for years.

Driven by all of this, openly antisemitic activity in Dagestan started on Saturday and has gotten increasingly worse. Protests in support of Palestine spilled over into demands for all Jews to be expelled from the Russian federal district. That turned into mobs searching at least one hotel door-to-door, looking for Jews - either Israeli passport holders or people with an Israeli stamp on their passports. Wait? But wouldn't someone who was on vacation or visiting family have a stamped passport at entry and nothing to do with any of this? Yes, but no one ever said that mobs think rationally.

In the city of Khasavyurt, videos showed an angry mob outside the Flamingo Hotel, and others showed the hotel being searched. Local police forces were accused of being supportive of the unrest. In a separate incident, a Jewish cultural center was set on fire.

Coupled with the loss of Internet communication into the Gaza Strip, protesters organized on Telegram channel Good Morning Dagestan to wait for the Red Wings Flight 4728 from Tel Aviv to arrive at Makhachkala.

Airport security was overrun with protesters taking over the terminal and then storming the ramp. Surrounding the Red Wings airplane chanting, "God is Great," and waving Palestinian flags. The flight crew and passengers secured the aircraft. People trying to leave the airport had their cars stopped and passports searched, with at least one person dragged out of a vehicle.

As local police arrived, they, too, were overwhelmed by protesters. Rosgyvardiya forces arrived a few hours ago, although it is unclear if they are OMON or SOBR - with SOBR being the equivalent of a federal SWAT team. There have been dozens of arrests, and while Dagestan Governor Sergei Melikov has declared the situation under control, it remains tenuous. Videos show that while the mob was cleared from the tarmac, they remained at the airport and were throwing rocks at the Rosgyvardia while the Russian National Guard fired warning shots into the air. While in some countries, this is another day that ends in "Y," this is almost unprecedented in Putin's tightly controlled Russia. 

The Supreme Mufti of Dagestan, Sheikh Akhmad Afandi, called on residents to stop the unrest at the airport. “You are mistaken. This issue cannot be resolved in this way. We understand and perceive your indignation very painfully...We will solve this issue differently. Not with rallies, but appropriately." 

Russian officials have closed Makhachkala airport through November 6. 

The situation in Dagestan, like so many other geopolitical flashes, didn't suddenly erupt on Friday night. The fuse for the ongoing riots was lit back in 1994 and slowly burned for 29 years.

None of this helps the Palestinian people, nor hurts Israeli citizens inside Israel.