May 19th, 2020: Restart Plan, Next Captain, 2020 Draft

Twenty-two years ago today Armando Benitez drilled Tino Martinez in the back, sparking the craziest baseball brawl I have ever witnessed. Here's my RAB Retro Week post on the brawl. I think brawls are mostly dumb, but I gotta say, I do miss the days when rival teams legitimately hated each other. It added another level of intensity. Maybe the Astros sign-stealing scandal will get us back there to some degree. Anyway, let's get to today's thoughts. Hope you're all staying safe.

1. Latest on the restart plan. Might as well begin with the latest restart plan news. A few days ago MLB presented the MLBPA with the 67-page "2020 Operations Manual" that serves as a health and safety guide for playing a baseball season amid the COVID-19 pandemic. The manual is not final and will change once the MLBPA provides feedback. Ron Blum, Joel Sherman, Ken Davidoff, and Jeff Passan have the details of the manual (Passan has a great breakdown too). It is so necessarily robust that it's overwhelming. I don't even know where to begin, though the diagrams are a nice touch (link):

The basic safety measures (multiple temperature checks per day, multiple tests per week, masks everywhere but on the field, etc.) for players, personnel, and their families are simple enough. If anything, I would bet on the MLBPA pushing for more testing, not less. I do think some of the ballpark restrictions could be a sticking point though. It's one thing to ask the players to shower at home rather than at the ballpark after a game (MLB's plan does that), it's another to prohibit them from using saunas, pools, ice baths, and things like that. Those aren't amenities. They're tools to optimize health and performance, and while prohibiting them during the pandemic is smart, I could see it being an issue. Players won't want to be taken out of their usual treatment and recovery routines. The plan also discourages players from using indoor hitting cages, which seems like something that will get ignored before long. There's only so much on-field hitting that can be done when both teams are sharing the same field. Some of the road protocols seem destined to be broken too. The entire traveling party -- MLB's plan calls for each team to designate up to 101 people as traveling personnel (players, coaches, front office members, etc.) -- will be asked to isolate at the hotel on the road. Can't go out to eat (even at the hotel restaurant), can't take an Uber to the ballpark, can't do anything, really. Approved activities include going from the hotel to the ballpark via one of the team buses and back, and that's pretty much it. There is zero chance that holds up all season. Guys will sneak out on the road to visit their girlfriends. It's gonna happen, and what happens when it does? The plan doesn't say. "MLB will not formally restrict the activities of Covered Individuals when they are away from work but will expect the members of each team to ensure that they all act responsibly. The careless actions of a single member of the team places the entire team (and their families) at risk, and teams should agree on their own off-field code of conduct for themselves and their family members to minimize the risk to the team," is all the plan says. There will be over 3,000 traveling personnel among the 30 teams and expecting all of them to follow the rules is unrealistic, which leads me to my next point: what happens when someone tests positive for COVID-19 on the road? MLB's plan does not say and instead leaves it up to each team to develop their own plan. Not sure that's good enough. MLB's plan calls for a seven-day quarantine (not the usual 14 days) and contact-tracing should someone test positive, and that person must pass two tests and receive medical approval before returning to work. Good plan, but how it happens -- where does that seven-day quarantine take place if a Yankee tests positive in Toronto, for example? will that player be left on his own when the team leaves town? who feeds him and makes sure he actually isolates during the quarantine period? -- is unclear. MLB is leaving that up to the teams. More than anything, this highly detailed 67-page document shows how fine a needle MLB and the MLBPA are trying to thread. The game on the field will look mostly the same. The plan says infielders should retreat several steps after a play at a base and that players shouldn't fraternize, but the pitching and the hitting and the running will look like baseball. No one is going to care that each pitcher will have his own personal rosin bag, that balls will be thrown out more regularly, that spitting and high fives will be prohibited, or that bat boy and ball boy duties will be handled by team employees, right? That's all in the manual and they're cosmetic changes, not fundamental changes to the sport. Just think of all the high five and hug replacements players come up with. We'll get a good laugh out of it. The baseball will still look like baseball. The biggest changes will take place behind the scenes and asking so many people to buy in and make it all work without a hitch is unrealistic. Missteps will happen and problems will emerge, and how MLB reacts to those problems has to be sussed out ahead of time. MLB's plan is very thorough and detailed, yet it's still incomplete and I find it to be a bit optimistic because there are so many potential vulnerabilities. "We emphasize that this is a first draft, and will undergo several rounds of changes as we collect comments and suggestions from the clubs, the Players’ Association, players, and government officials. The document is designed to set minimum standards and identify best practices, but we have attempted to provide clubs with enough flexibility to achieve the desired health and safety objectives in a manner that is tailored to their particular circumstances, including ballpark configuration, location, and the nature of any local governmental regulations or restrictions," MLB deputy commissioner Dan Halem wrote in the email to club personnel that accompanied the Operations Manual, according to Blum.

2. The next captain. Late last week CC Sabathia made headlines when he said he believes either Aaron Judge or Gleyber Torres could be the next Yankees captain. "Those two dudes are just leaders. Either one of them I could see being the next captain," he said during a podcast. I didn't see it myself, but apparently Edwin Encarnacion replied "100%" to one of MLB's social media posts about Sabathia's comments, so he believes it too. There's some bias in play there, sure, but two highly respected veterans praising your top two core players for their leadership is pretty cool. Sabathia's comments got me thinking about the next Yankees captain and captains in general. First of all, no one really seems to know how many captains the Yankees have had in their history. Baseball Reference lists 16. Wikipedia lists 15. Baseball Almanac lists 13. According to Tyler Kepner, the Yankees announced Derek Jeter as the 11th captain in team history, so that's what I'm going with. If the team says they've had 11 captains, then they've had 11 captains. As best I can tell David Wright was the last active captain in baseball. He signed his eight-year extension in Nov. 2012, was named captain in March 2013, and was done as an everyday player in 2015 (he appeared in two token farewell games in 2018). I've seen a few articles calling Adrian Beltre the Rangers captain (like this one and this one), but I can't find anything official, and when the team announced their plans to retire his number last year, there was no mention of the captaincy in the press release. Seems like a thing they'd note, no? The Yankees named Jeter captain in June 2003. He was four World Series championships and eight seasons into his career at that point, and in Year 3 of his 10-year contract. It was not a decision George Steinbrenner made willy-nilly. Jeter was an established superstar who was going to be around a long time when he was named captain. Judge and Torres are star-caliber players, but they're not transcendent like Jeter, they haven't won a title yet, and neither is signed long-term. Judge will become a free agent after 2022. That's only two and a half years away. Torres is under control through 2024. To me, it seems like those two have to take care of some business before the Yankees start to think about naming another captain. There's also this: does it even matter? Does a baseball team need a captain? Most franchises have not had a captain since the 1970s or 80s -- the Yankees, Mets, Reds (Barry Larkin), Red Sox (Jason Varitek), and White Sox (Paul Konerko) are the notable exceptions -- so clearly, having a captain is not a priority in MLB. Certainly not the same way it is in the NBA, NFL, or especially the NHL. For what it's worth, Brian Cashman has said the Yankees would never name another captain if it were up to him. From Wally Matthews in 2015:

"I think Derek did it as well as anyone can,'' Cashman told ESPNNewYork.com. "He wore it well, and I'm not a big advocate of giving out the captaincy anyway. I'm not going to recommend anyone being named captain of the New York Yankees right away.''

...

"And that's not disrespectful of any of the guys I have here that have a lot of leadership,'' Cashman said. "As far as I'm concerned, and I'm not the decision-maker on this, that captaincy should be retired with No. 2. I wouldn't give up another captain title to anybody else.''

Leaders are important. Teams need them. Teams do not need a captain though. If a player needs the captain label to be considered a leader, he's not really a leader. I'm sure Judge, Torres, or anyone else would be honored to be named captain. I also think it's unnecessary. Baseball players are around each other pretty much every single day from mid-February to October. They don't have to be told who the leaders are on the field and in the clubhouse. If the Yankees want to make it official and name Judge or Torres (or Brett Gardner) captain, either now or after they win a title and sign a long-term contract, great. That would be cool. I would not have a problem with the Yankees opting against it though. I see no need to attach labels to anyone. Just let the players be themselves and do what comes naturally.

3. Are 50 players enough? MLB's restart proposal calls for a 50-man roster split into a 30-man active roster and a 20-man taxi squad. There is unlikely to be a minor league season this year and teams will need a way to keep injury replacements and call-up candidates ready to play. The taxi squad is the best way to do it, I think. Is 50 players enough though? The Yankees used 54 different players last season because they had all the injuries -- only eight of the 54 were not in the organization on Opening Day, which is fewer than I would've guessed -- and also because they aggressively use the Triple-A shuttle to keep fresh arms in the bullpen. Last year's 54 players were up from 49 players in 2018 and not too far below the franchise record 58 players used in 2014. Twenty-two teams used at least 50 players last year, led by the Mariners (67!). The Cardinals used the fewest players (43) and teams averaged 50.5 players. That was across a full 162-game season. They might only play 82 games this year, but the risks are different. The goal with expanded rosters is protecting pitchers who started Spring Training, had to slow down for three months, then have to start throwing with intent again. Also, there's the whole global pandemic thing. A player getting sick and having to be quarantined is a thing that could happen and require roster moves. In an 82-game season, I think 50 players will probably be enough. It might make sense for the MLBPA to push for 55 players and a 25-man taxi squad though, or maybe even 60 players and a 30-man taxi squad. The argument they can make to MLB and the 30 owners is simple: we want to protect our players (your investments) during his unprecedented time, and we'd rather have too many players than not enough. MLB will counter with 50 players is plenty and more players equals a greater risk of infection, which is a valid point. I think a 55-man or 60-man roster is a conversation worth having though. After the shutdown and clearing all the logistical hurdles necessary to play baseball, the last thing MLB and the MLBPA want is a rash of player injuries when baseball comes back, particularly major pitching injuries that carry over into next season and could alter careers. The more players teams have available, the less likely it is players get overworked, and the better it is for the game short and long-term. Fifty is probably enough. I still think there should be a conversation about a few extra players, just to be sure. It doesn't hurt to talk it out.

4. 2020 draft prospect: Louisville RHP Bobby Miller. The Yankees will have only three picks and a $3.7M maximum bonus pool during this year's five-round draft, and between now and the June 10th draft date, I'm going to break down potential Yankees targets. We've already covered RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Nick Bitsko, RHP Tanner Burns, OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, LHP Jake Eder, RHP J.T. Ginn, OF Isaiah Greene, RHP Bryce Jarvis, LHP Luke Little, RHP Max Meyer, RHP C.J. Van Eyk, and C Austin Wells. Miller declined to sign with the Orioles as a 38th round pick three years ago and he spent his first two years with Louisville as a swingman with okay results (4.05 ERA and 141/59 K/BB in 146.2 innings). He started to emerge as a possible first rounder late last year, when he moved into the rotation full-time and flirted with a no-hitter in the Super Regionals. Miller had a 2.31 ERA with 34 strikeouts and nine walks in four starts and 23.1 innings prior to the shutdown this spring. MLB.com ranks Miller as the 26th best prospect in the draft class and Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranks him 28th. The Yankees hold the 28th overall pick. Here's a snippet of MLB's scouting report (here's video):

Miller's fastball is notable for both its heat -- he sat at 95-96 mph throughout his dominance of East Carolina and worked at 97-99 in shorter stints in the fall -- and its heavy life. He also can miss bats with a slider/cutter that usually operates at 85-87 and reached 90 during the fall. He has faith in a splitter/changeup with similar velocity and employs a more traditional change in the low 80s.

With his strong 6-foot-5 frame, Miller has no difficulty maintaining his stuff into the late innings. However, there's effort in his delivery that limits his control and has some scouts wondering if he's destined to be a reliever in the long run.

For what it's worth, Kiley McDaniel says Miller has been "tied to the Yankees" this spring. I've seen speculation that teams in the back half of the first round, when the gap in available talent begins to shrink, will select whichever player agrees to the most most below-slot bonus, or even select the player they like, offer something like 70% of the slot value, and take the compensation pick next year if he says no. I don't think the Yankees would do that (I hope they don't) but I can totally buy Miller as a target for a below-slot deal somewhere in the 15-30 range. He was not seen as a potential first rounder at this point last year and he didn't get much of an opportunity to showcase himself this spring. Miller's options could very well be sign a below-slot deal this year -- below-slot in the back half of the first round could still be better than slot in the second round -- or go back to school and come out with much less leverage as a senior next year (and risk getting hurt between now and then). Miller is a good prospect, sort of a classic late first round/early second round college pitcher, and the draft climate could push him into the higher end of that range. Maybe even higher than the Yankees pick. (If you're interested, I guessed my way through another mock draft at CBS.)

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Rick Honeycutt. Our next random Yankee comes by request and is a baseball lifer who spent 34 years in the big leagues as a player and coach. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Kevin Elster, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Brandon Knight, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Mark Reynolds, DeWayne Wise, and Kerry Wood.  Honeycutt broke into the big leagues with Seattle in 1977 and he played for the Mariners (1977-80), Rangers (1981-83), Dodgers (1983-87), Athletics (1987-93), the Rangers again (1994), and the Athletics again (1995) before joining the Yankees on Sept. 25th, 1995. He was 41 years old and in his 19th big league season at the time, and the Yankees had five games remaining in the regular season. They were only a half-game up in the wild card race though and GM Gene Michael didn't want to play those final five games with Steve Howe and Bob MacDonald as the only lefties in the bullpen. The A's were in last place and Honeycutt was an impending free agent, so they traded him to the Yankees for $50,000. Easy money. Because he was not in the organization on August 31st, Honeycutt was not eligible for the postseason roster, but that didn't matter. The Yankees just wanted to get to the postseason for the first time since 1981. Honeycutt appeared in three games with the Yankees. The recap:

Sept. 26th at Milwaukee (5-4 win)

• Entered with a runner on first and no outs in the eighth, Yankees up 5-2.
• Walked lefty B.J. Surhoff, the only batter he faced, on four pitches.
• Bob Wickman allowed both inherited runners to score.

Sept. 27th at Milwaukee (6-3 win)

• Started the ninth inning, Yankees up 6-1.
• Got lefty Dave Nilsson to ground out to second.
• Righty Mark Loretta pinch-hit for lefty David Hulse and doubled to left.
• Righty Matt Mieske pinch-hit for lefty Fernando Vina and hit a two-run homer.
• Wickman came in to get the final two outs.

Oct. 1st vs. Blue Jays (6-1 win)

• Entered with runners on first and second and one out in the eighth, Yankees up 6-1.
• Got lefty Shawn Green to line out to second on the first pitch.
• Got lefty John Olerud to fly out to left in a 3-1 count to end the inning.

Three appearances, six batters faced, three outs, two extra-base hits, one four-pitch walk. Not great! But the Yankees won all three games Honeycutt appeared in (and all five games he was on the roster) and clinched the first AL Wild Card spot in history, and that was pretty cool. That team was 54-59 and 4.5 games out of the Wild Card spot on August 29th, then they went 25-6 the rest of the way to clinch a postseason berth. It was a fun month. Anyway, Honeycutt was charged with three runs in one inning as a Yankee, so it goes into the record books as a 27.00 ERA. Eight-hundred-and-three pitchers have thrown at least one inning as a Yankee and that 27.00 ERA is tied for the eighth highest in franchise history (with Austin Romine, among others). Honeycutt was traded -- "traded" -- to the Cardinals after the season because there was some front office miscommunication. I'll let Murray Chass explain:

When GENE MICHAEL, then the general manager, acquired reliever RICK HONEYCUTT from Oakland in September, he agreed that when Honeycutt filed for free agency the Yankees would not offer him salary arbitration -- so that when he signed with another club, it wouldn't cost the club a draft choice. But the agreement apparently wasn't relayed to Michael's successor, BOB WATSON, and Watson offered arbitration. Consternation ensued until the players association and the league agreed to a solution. Honeycutt, according to a person close to the Yankees, will accept arbitration and the Yankees will "trade" him to the St. Louis Cardinals. The Yankees, the person said, will not receive a player but a token amount of money.

For a guy who spent only six days on the roster, Honeycutt sure had an eventful stint with the Yankees. He wrapped up his playing career with the Cardinals in 1997 and retired with a career 3.72 ERA in 2,160 innings. Made the All-Star Game in 1980 and 1983 too. Honeycutt joined the Dodgers as a minor league coach soon after retiring and eventually made his way up their big league staff. He was their pitching coach under four managers (Grady Little, Joe Torre, Don Mattingly, Dave Roberts) from 2006-19. Honeycutt, now 65, retired as a coach this past offseason -- he had spinal fusion surgery last February and wanted a less demanding schedule -- and is still with the Dodgers as a special advisor. The man spent nearly four decades in the game, and the six days he spent with the Yankees were six of the most exciting days a young Mike Axisa had experienced as a fan up to that point.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. MLB has told the MLBPA teams would lose $640,000 per game, on average, by paying prorated salaries with no fans in the stands this season, according to Ron Blum. The Yankees stand to lose $312M locally and the 12-page document says the players would receive 89% of revenue this year with prorated salaries. The document was cooked up and conveniently leaked to the media right as MLB pushes the MLBPA to accept further salary reductions. There are two reasons not to take the document at face value. First, it acknowledges not all revenue is included in the calculations -- Maury Brown has a good overview of the revenue that isn't included -- so we're looking at an incomplete picture at best. And second, MLB claims the league was projected to lose $95M in 2020 before the shutdown. Great moments in fancy accounting, huh? Royals Review notes the document claims the Royals would lose $113M with prorated salaries, which is funny because Kansas City's entire full season payroll was just north of $80M ... According to Bob Klapisch, the YES Network and WFAN may broadcast Yankees games remotely this year. Michael Kay & Co. would announce games from the YES Network studios in Stamford while John & Suzyn would call games from WFAN's studios in Lower Manhattan. The only exception could be Meredith Marakovitz, who would possibly give reports from the stands rather than the clubhouse, dugout, or on the field. Several networks have experimented with remote broadcasts in recent years (mostly for college sports and international events) and it only makes sense as MLB tries to limit the number of people at the ballpark this year. Also, broadcasters tend to be older folks, who are more at risk of serious complications of COVID-19. Remote broadcasts might be a little weird at first but it's the obvious move this season ... And finally, MLB's proposal calls for a regional 82-game schedule, so the Yankees would play all their games against AL East and NL East opponents. Dan Szymborski ran the numbers, so here are the standings projections and postseason odds for the proposed 82-game regional schedule:

The gap between the Yankees and Rays really shrinks during a shortened season with a regional schedule. Only the Dodgers have a better projected record (52-30), division odds (77.3%), and postseason odds (97.9%) than the Yankees, but the Yankees aren't competing with the Dodgers. They're competing with the Rays (and to a lesser extent the other three AL East teams) and the two clubs are on close to level ground with this format. The AL East race could come down to which team stays healthiest (not off to a good start, Yankees!), and which team gets the best small sample size outlier performances (someone hitting .380 in 82 games or whatever).

(Send questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)