May 26th, 2020: Paxton, Florial, 50-Man Roster, 2020 Draft

In a pandemic-free world, the Yankees would have wrapped up a four-game home series with the Mariners yesterday afternoon. It would've been their 54th game. The 2020 season should now be exactly one-third complete. Instead, it hasn't even started. I really miss baseball, you guys. I hope MLB and the MLBPA can work things out and the season can be played soon and safely. Hope you're all staying safe. Let's get to today's thoughts.

1. Paxton's new fastball grip. Hark, some actual on-field baseball news. James Paxton sat down for an interview with the YES Network last week (video link) to give an update on his progress. First things first, Paxton has completed his back surgery rehab and will be a full participant once Spring Training 2.0 begins. "I think I’ve thrown probably 12-14 bullpens. It’s feeling really good. Back is a non-issue, I feel totally healthy, so I’ll be ready to go as soon as the season comes about," he said, adding he's made a few adjustments to his workout and pre-throwing routines to put less stress on his back. Good news all around. And secondly, Paxton said he's working to improve his fastball spin rate during the shutdown. Specifically, he's made a slight tweak to his fastball grip. Here's what he said:

“There is a ball we have here that tracks spin rate to a degree and I have been working on a few things to increase my spin rate, and I’ve seen some good results there ... What I found was how I hold the ball -- how I hold my fastball -- I’m trying to hold it a little bit differently with less contact on my thumb because I guess that’s supposed to kind of like put some drag on the ball. So, I have been trying not to touch my thumb as much to the ball. And I’ve been noticing some more spin and back spin when I throw the ball ... It was a little bit weird. I’ve heard guys say that when you tuck your thumb underneath the fastball, that’s when you get the most spin, but I just have no feel for where the ball’s going when it’s there. So I still kind of have that guiding thing with my thumb, but because I still have my thumb on the ball -- I have that pad of my thumb off of the ball -- so I still experience some increase in spin, which has been fun to see.”

Paxton throws his fastball a ton -- only Chris Paddack (61.1%) threw a higher percentage of four-seam fastballs than Paxton (59.9%) among full-time starters last year -- and he has elite velocity. His heater averaged 95.7 mph last season, tenth highest among starters and the highest among lefties. He topped out at 100.3 mph. Paxton, Jose Alvarado, Aroldis Chapman, and Felipe Vazquez were the only southpaws to hit triple digits in 2019. Three relievers and one starter. Clearly, Paxton has elite fastball velocity. Fastball spin though? Not so much. Last year the league average four-seam fastball spin rate was 2,287 rpm. Paxton was at 2,263 rpm and the year before it was 2,283 rpm, so almost exactly average. Here's a graph:

With fastballs, you want either a high spin rate (correlates strongly to swings and misses) or a low spin rate (correlates strongly to downward action and ground balls), and Paxton has neither, which isn't a great place to be. Last year his fastball had a 24.0% whiffs-per-swing rate and a 29.1% ground ball rate. The league averages for a four-seamer were 21.8% and 34.3%, respectively. Paxton was average-ish at both -- close enough to the league rates once you consider random baseball fluctuation -- and certainly not exceptional at either. That Paxton threw so many fastballs and was still effective despite average spin is pretty remarkable. Then again, he didn't really take off until the second half, when he scaled back on his heater and began to throw more curveballs and cutters:

On one hand, this is pretty simple. Paxton has elite fastball velocity, and if he can figure out a way to up his spin rate as well, the pitch will be much more effective. He'll get more swings and misses, particularly up in the strike zone (where he likes to throw his fastball), and he'll have a greater margin for error overall. On the other hand, changing the characteristics of a pitch isn't easy. Paxton's quote was a little confusing and it sounds like he tucked his thumb all the way underneath the ball to get maximum spin but couldn't control it, so he has his thumb tucked only partially now. Adding spin is great, but if you can't control the pitch, then what good is it? Sounds like Paxton is working to find the middle ground between improved spin and control. Also, raw spin rate is only one piece of the pie. Spin efficiency matters too. That's the percentage of the spin along the axis of the ball, or how "true" the spin occurs. The higher the spin efficiency, the better, and it's something that often gets overlooked because it's not publicly available anywhere as far as I know. It exists though and it matters, and "adding spin" is not necessarily as easy as adding spin. You want efficient spin and that is what Paxton is working to develop. I hope it works. Gerrit Cole is arguably the best pitcher on the planet because he has velocity, he has high and efficient spin, and because he can command everything. I don't expect Paxton to get to that level -- it would be cool though! -- but getting a little extra spin on the fastball could be a real game changer. He throws his fastball a ton and more swing-and-miss-ability could help him make the jump from talented but kinda inconsistent to a bona fide ace, or close to it. "The velocity is getting better and better, breaking balls and stuff like that, getting a feel for my pitches, so everything is going really well. I've seen some good results there, so I'm continuing to try and improve over this time, even though we're not playing," Paxton said.

2. Florial and the 50-man roster. Over the weekend Estevan Florial told George King he is part of a small group of players working out at the complex in Tampa during the shutdown. Miguel Andujar, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, and Giancarlo Stanton are also there. Not a bad group for a young prospect to be around, huh? "I come here and lift, take some swings and throw a little bit. I try to get ready so when we get back to playing ball I will be prepared. We have a small group, so being around these guys has been a great experience. I think it’s been great to be next to them and try to pick things up from them in this atmosphere. The group here is special. I pay close attention to how they go about their business and try to pick their brains," he said. The story got me thinking about Florial and prospects in general, and how they fit into the 50-man roster when baseball returns, if they fit at all. When I put together my 50-man roster projection a few weeks ago -- that is definitely something we'll revisit before Opening Day, probably sooner -- I didn't include many prospects. Florial wasn't on it and neither were 40-man roster players like Albert Abreu, Luis Gil, and Luis Medina. Instead, I gave roster spots to veteran non-roster players like Zack Granite and Tony Zych. My thinking was the prospects did not become more MLB ready during the shutdown, and throwing them into a big league setting could stunt their development. Also, there are service time considerations (do teams want to start the clock of their top prospects during this weird season when they might not play much?) and the priority is still winning games, and I don't think it's crazy to say a non-roster guy like Granite could help more than Florial in the year 2020. (For what it's worth, ZiPS projected Granite at -0.2 WAR before the season and Florial at -1.0 WAR. Projections are an estimate of the player's current talent at the MLB level, not a prediction.) Even with no real minor league season, there are reasons to leave tippy top prospects off the 50-man roster, especially for a World Series contender like the Yankees. There are also reasons to carry those prospects on the 50-man roster. They need to play to develop, and limited game action is better than no game action. And it's not like the taxi squad guys are going to be sitting around. They'll throw bullpens, taking batting practice, receive instruction, etc., and that's better than not being on the roster and working out at home. That little bit of baseball is better than nothing. At this point, even MLB executives seems split on how to use the 50-man roster. "We have to operate as if there are not going to be any other developmental opportunities this year. And for that reason, I think we have to look at our prospects -- even if we’re not sure they’re going to make an impact on our major league roster in 2020, if we think they might in ’21 or ’22, and we think that their development is critically important to the health of our minor league system and our organization -- we have to find a way to at least consider them getting reps in a stay-hot style of camp," Giants manager Gabe Kapler, who ran the incredibly fruitful Dodgers farm system from 2014-16, told KNBR recently. Rangers GM Jon Daniels, meanwhile, told Levi Weaver (subs. req'd) it is "unlikely that we will have guys on the taxi squad that we would not be comfortable with at least considering for big league time this year." "I don’t think we’re comfortable taking up many spots, if any, with players that can’t help the big league team this year. I think it’s likely that we’ll have a more condensed schedule, maybe fewer off-days, potentially some doubleheaders in there, so to limit yourself and have fewer players to choose from, that could be a major limitation," Daniels added. I dunno. Different teams will use their taxi squad in different ways -- the Giants are in a rebuild and can skew younger without worrying about the standings but the Rangers are opening a new ballpark and have invested a lot in their rotation, so they want to win -- and the Yankees are very much in the "we're trying to win" group. How do you balance using that 49th or 50th roster spot on a kid like Florial, who needs reps but might not help you win in 2020, versus a non-roster guy like Granite, who is better able to help you win now but is not part of the long-term future? We're a few weeks away from this question being answered -- MLB's proposal calls for 50 players max in Spring Training 2.0, which I guess means each team will have to set their 50-man roster prior to camp -- and not long ago I would've said the Yankees will focus exclusively on guys who can help them win. Now I'm not so sure. They just might make room on the 50-man roster for not truly big league ready prospects like Abreu, Florial, Medina, and others because working out with the team and sporadic game action is better for their development than staying home all season. "I would be very excited about it. Obviously if I get the opportunity to be placed on a roster it’s going to be great. I just want to be playing the game again. I just want to play. Somewhere, somehow," Florial told King.

3. 2020 draft prospect: North Carolina 1B Aaron Sabato. The Yankees will have only three picks and a $3.7M maximum bonus pool during this year's five-round draft, and between now and the June 10th draft date, I'm going to break down potential Yankees targets. We've already covered RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Nick Bitsko, RHP Tanner Burns, OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, C Dillon Dingler, LHP Jake Eder, RHP J.T. Ginn, OF Isaiah Greene, RHP Bryce Jarvis, LHP Luke Little, RHP Max Meyer, RHP Bobby Miller, RHP C.J. Van Eyk, and C Austin Wells. Sabato is a local kid who was born in Rye Brook, New York, and went to Brunswick High School in Greenwich, Connecticut. After going undrafted out of high school, he set UNC's freshman record with 18 home runs last season. He hit .343/.453/.696 in 64 games overall, but missed summer ball while rehabbing from right shoulder surgery. This spring Sabato came back and authored a .292/.478/.708 batting line with seven homers in 19 games prior to the shutdown, so yeah, the shoulder's healthy. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranks him as the 35th best prospect in the draft class while MLB.com ranks him 41st. The Yankees hold the 28th pick. Here's a chunk of MLB's free scouting report (here's video):

A right-handed hitter, Sabato possesses exceptional strength that combines with his bat speed and the loft in his swing to give him well-above-average raw power. While he has a power-over-hit approach, he's patient enough to accept walks when pitchers won't challenge him and doesn't strike out excessively ... He worked hard to improve his defense and has reliable hands at first base, but he lacks range and had below-average arm strength before he hurt his shoulder. He's a well-below-average runner with limited athleticism.

For what it's worth, Jim Callis hears the Yankees have interest in Sabato. I buy it. Sabato is an exit velocity king and we know the Yankees lean on exit velocity as an evaluation tool. He hit a ball 103 mph as a high school junior at the Perfect Game Showcase in 2017, which is still the event record (their data goes back to 2014), and he's been up to at least 114 mph with the Tar Heels, though that was with a metal bat. Still, by all accounts Sabato hits the ball extremely hard, and the Yankees love that. There is more to life than exit velocity though. Sabato is a right-handed hitting, right-handed throwing first baseman and that's a rough profile, historically. Only 18 right-right first basemen have reached even +10 WAR in the expansion era. You have to hit and hit huge to make that profile work long-term. Also, even though MLB's report says Sabato "doesn't strike out excessively," he kinda does. He owns a career 19.6% strikeout rate at UNC. That's high for a first round draft prospect, especially a bat-first guy. The Tar Heels struck out 17.2% of the time as a team this year, for reference. For all intents and purposes, Sabato's upside is Luke Voit 2.0 as a right-right first baseman with big power, a tendency to strike out, and no real defensive or baserunning value. Voit is really good! If the Yankees drafted Sabato and he developed into Voit, I'd happily take it. It's not quite that simple though. There is a long way between Sabato now and Voit 2.0, and his one-dimensional skill set means he comes with a lot of risk. If he doesn't hit, he's no longer a prospect, period. He has to be a well-above-average hitter to be worth a big league roster spot. I should also note Sabato is a draft-eligible sophomore, giving him more leverage than the typical college draftee. I don't think that will be an issue though. In the shortened draft, I suspect teams will gravitate toward players who agree to a number beforehand. The Yankees (or any other team) probably won't select Sabato unless they have a deal in place. The two sides figure to work out the money ahead of time.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Robert Eenhoorn. Our next random Yankee comes by request and is one of only 11 big leaguers born in The Netherlands (as opposed to Aruba or Curacao). We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Kevin Elster, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Melky Mesa, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Mark Reynolds, DeWayne Wise, and Kerry Wood. Eenhoorn played in Honkbal Hoofdklasse, the highest level of professional baseball in The Netherlands, from 1984-90 (his age 16-22 seasons), and he represented his country in the 1988 Olympics. He attended Davidson in 1990 and the Yankees drafted him in the second round that year. It was the compensation pick they received for losing Walt Terrell to the Pirates as a free agent. Prior to the draft Baseball America (subs. req'd) wrote "(scouts) really like the way he glides and how he handles pressure, but question his age (22) and bat." The Yankees didn't move Eenhoorn up the ladder that aggressively despite his age. He spent 1991 in High-A (.241/.320/.343), 1992 at High-A and Double-A (.271/.323/.368), and 1993 at Double-A (.280/.324/.433). The Yankees called Eenhoorn up for the first time in April 1994, when Dave Silvestri went down with an injury. Eenhoorn went 1-or-2 with a double in his first MLB game and became only the fourth player born in The Netherlands to play in the big leagues. He spent most of that season in Triple-A (.239/.270/.324) after the early call-up. Eenhoorn started 1995 back in Triple-A and was called up in late May, when Tony Fernandez hit the disabled list with a rib injury. He went 2-for-14 (.143) in five games before being sent back down. Derek Jeter made his MLB debut on May 29th that season and Eenhoorn was the last player to start a game at shortstop for the Yankees before Jeter's debut. "I didn’t see him making mistakes, so I’d have to say he was a pretty good thinker. I think infielders have to be able to think more in the game, especially one that didn’t hit much, like me and him," the late Gene Michael told Jack Curry in 2009. Eenhoorn spent 1996 as an up-and-down player and went 1-for-14 (.071) in 12 games with the Yankees, only eight of which he started. Most notably, Eenhoorn started Doc Gooden's no-hitter at second base, though he was lifted for pinch-hitter Andy Fox in the eighth inning. He made three defensive plays in the game: he tagged Paul Sorrento on Joey Cora's weak grounder to end the second inning, caught Cora's pop-up in the fifth, and turned the 4-3 putout on Alex Rodriguez's grounder in the sixth. Here's the Sorrento play. The other two defensive plays were routine. The Yankees lost Eenhoorn on waivers to the Angels in Sept. 1996. He finished his Yankees career 5-for-32 (.156) with two doubles and -0.2 WAR in 20 games. Eenhoorn spent some time with the Angels in 1996 and 1997 and hit his only MLB home run on Sept. 27th, 1997, making him the first player born in The Netherlands to go deep in a big league game since Jack Lelivelt in 1912. Only two have done it since: the late Greg Halman and Sir Didi Gregorius (other Dutch players like Andruw Jones and Jonathan Schoop were born in Curacao). Eenhoorn spent 1998 in Triple-A with the Mets before returning to The Netherlands and serving as player-manager for the Honkbal club Neptunus. He was named league MVP and Coach of the Year in 2000, then more or less ran The Netherlands national team from 2001-08, leading them to the Olympics in 2004 and 2008. Few have done more to grow the game in Europe than Eenhoorn. He opened an academy in The Netherlands and has helped launch academies in other European countries as well, and they've started to send players to pro ball, which is pretty cool. "We’ve had to change the culture that this isn’t about being comfortable. It’s about winning," Eenhoorn told Curry when asked about trying to develop baseball players in a region where the sport is unfamiliar.

UPDATE: A reader reached out to mention Eenhoorn is also involved in soccer. Here's the info:

Since 2014 he's been the general director of AZ Alkmaar, one of the soccer teams in the top Dutch league. He briefly overlapped there with Earnie Stewart, who played for the USMNT in 90s and is now the Sporting Director for the US Soccer Federation. A few other Americans have played there under Eenhoorn as well, including Aron Johannsson (who was  on the 2014 US World Cup team). Eenhoorn has also hired Billy Beane as a consultant for the club. 

5. Rapid fire thoughts. I have revenue dispute fatigue so I don't want to spend too much time on the latest player compensation developments. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd) reports MLB will not propose a 50-50 revenue split and will instead present an alternative, perhaps prorated salaries with a portion deferred. More interestingly, Rosenthal says the MLBPA is looking for ways to leverage their position, including ensuring teams will not drastically cut payroll next year. They could do that with a one-year salary floor or a provision requiring next year's payroll to be some percentage of this year's full season payroll. I'm not sure it'll work -- one way or another, the owners will absolutely hammer the players at some point, the shutdown gives them an excuse to collude without having to actually collude -- but it's worth a shot ... No need to worry about players in other countries making it back in time for Spring Training 2.0. The Department of Homeland Security issued an order last week exempting foreign-born professional athletes from being denied entry into the country during the pandemic. "Professional sporting events provide much needed economic benefits, but equally important, they provide community pride and national unity. In today’s environment, Americans need their sports. It’s time to reopen the economy and it’s time we get our professional athletes back to work," the order says. Also, Tim Brown reports MLB players returning from overseas will not have to quarantine for two weeks as recommended by the CDC. Not sure that's a good idea, but whatever. Masahiro Tanaka is home in Japan, Jonathan Loaisiga is in Nicaragua, I think Luis Cessa is in Mexico, and I'm sure there are a few other Yankees scattered around the globe (Dominican Republic, etc.). Whenever baseball starts back up, they're cleared to return without having to jump through immigration hoops or even quarantine ... And finally, the Short Season Staten Island Yankees and Low-A Charleston RiverDogs are sparring over the minor league contraction plan. Derrek Asberry reports two New York lawmakers, including Staten Island borough president James Oddo, sent a letter to Yankees ownership asking them to eliminate the RiverDogs and retain the SI Yankees so they could maintain their "mutually beneficial" relationship. RiverDogs ownership shot back, saying it's not up to the Yankees. Who doesn't want their minor league affiliates fighting over who gets to stay and who gets cut? This is going to happen more and more in the coming months, I suspect. (To be fair, the SI Yankees are not involved themselves. Local politicians started it.)

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)