June 5th, 2020: German, 50-Man Roster, 2020 Draft, Mailbag

As the NBA and NHL finalize their restart plans, MLB and the MLBPA continue to publicly bicker over money and season length. It's getting tiresome. I think bickering is better than radio silence, but who knows. I guess we'll find out eventually. Let's get to today's thoughts.

1. German and the 50-man roster. As MLB and the MLBPA kinda sorta maybe possibly get closer to an agreement to play the 2020 season, I've been thinking a bunch about the 50-man roster and how teams will use it. I wrote about that recently. I've found that, whenever I think about the roster (both short and long-term), I keep forgetting about Domingo German. I did it in the recent payroll post. I'm pretty sure this happens because he's not listed on the 40-man roster page, and when I look at non-40-man roster pitchers, I immediately scroll to the bottom of the team's Roster Resource page. I keep scrolling right by German, basically. My bad. Anyway, German must serve the final 63 games of his 81-game suspension this season. MLB supposedly wants a 50-game season, in which case German will be a non-factor. The MLBPA wants a 114-game season and German would be available for 51 games in that scenario, or something like 9-10 starts. Should the two sides meet in the middle and play 82 games, the Yankees would have German for 19 games. It might be best to use him as a reliever at that point, though that's not something we have worry about now. The Yankees would presumably be able to exclude German from their 50-man roster during a 50-game season. He's not going to pitch, so there's no need to carry him. What about an 82-game or 114-game season though? Do the Yankees have to carry German on their 50-game roster all year? Or can they carry 50 players, then replace someone when German is eligible to return? This might apply to Aaron Judge too. The most recent update said Judge was still a "couple more weeks" away from his next check-up exam. That was May 8th and we've heard nothing since. Until we hear otherwise, I think we have to assume Judge will be at best questionable and at worst unavailable for an early July Opening Day. Point is, will teams have to carry players who are injured or suspended, but are expected back at some point during the season, on their 50-man roster all year? Or will there be a mechanism in place to exclude them from the 50-man roster while they're hurt or suspended, then add them later? It's not as simple as the usual injured list/restricted list scenario because you can't count on having a place to play rehab games, and there's nowhere to send the player who gets replaced on the roster. I think it has to be 50-man roster or bust. If a team wants to use a player at the MLB level this season, he has to be on the 50-man roster, otherwise forget it. That includes Judge, who may miss Opening Day, and it also includes German, who will know will miss exactly 63 games. Want him available for those final 19 games of an 82-game season? Then he has to be on the 50-man roster for the first 63. Allowing him to prepare for the season with the taxi squad while not actually counting against the 50-man roster is an unfair advantage, and making him stay at home until he's eligible to play seems unwise when you're trying to navigate a pandemic. Also, it's not fair to German, to expect him to get ready for the season at home, in a non-professional setting. Seems to me the only way to do this is to require teams to carry any player they want to use at the big league level on the 50-man roster, even if he's going to miss Opening Day with an injury or suspension. Being able to shuttle players on and off the 50-man roster defeats the purpose of the taxi squad. The Yankees would be able to exclude Luis Severino (and Adam Warren) from their 50-man roster because we know he won't pitch this year. That's easy. German (and Judge) is a different story. My guess is he will have to be on the 50-man roster all year to be eligible to play once his suspension is over, which means the Yankees will have a 49-man roster for the first 63 games (assuming they play that many).

2. Draft to the big leagues? Earlier this week Brendan Kuty speculated the Yankees could use their first round pick, the 28th overall selection, on a pitcher who could be added to the 50-man roster when the regular season begins. Take a college reliever, fast track him to the big leagues, and there you go. I thought the Yankees would do that with Jacob Lindgren in 2014, though it never happened despite 48 strikeouts in 25 innings in his pro debut. "There was talk of it, I remember it. There was talk of him being (in the minors) for a couple weeks and then throwing him straight up (to MLB)," former Yankees minor league pitching coordinator Danny Borrell told Kuty. The Yankees gave up their second and fifth rounders to sign Gerrit Cole, so this is going to be a skimpy draft haul no matter what. Fast tracking a reliever ensures they'd get at least some MLB value out of this draft. My original 50-man roster projection included guys like Chad Bettis and Tony Zych, who are coming back from major injuries (Bettis had hip surgery last August, Zych hasn't pitched since 2017 due to arm problems). Using a 20-man taxi squad spot on a newly drafted college arm over a veteran reclamation project like Bettis or Zych would certainly be more exciting as a fan, and I'm not sure it would meaningfully swing the team's chances in either direction. There is value in having a new draftee get pro instruction as a taxi squad player this year rather than sit at home all summer. I should also note my 50-man roster projection does not include Albert Abreu or the Luises (Gil and Medina). They're on the 40-man roster, they could use the instruction this summer as much as the draftee, and they're probably better able to help the Yankees win this year seeing how they have pro ball experience (Abreu has a full Double-A season under his belt). It would make sense to give those three a 50-man roster spot over some college kid. Then again, there could be room for Abreu, the Luises, and a new draftee on the 50-man roster. I dunno. There's also a financial component to this strategy. The Yankees have three picks and a measly $3.7M max bonus pool this summer. Slot money for the 28th overall pick is just under $2.5M, and telling a player you're planning to put him on the MLB roster this summer could convince him to take a below-slot bonus ($1.5M?). Good idea! It's also illegal. Teams can't promise draftees additional compensation (higher minor league salaries, etc.) to dance around the bonus pool, and promising to put a player on the MLB roster would certainly qualify as additional compensation. Could MLB prove the promise was made? Probably not, and they might simply look the other way seeing how this is weird season. The Yankees could sign a reliever below-slot, fast track him to the 50-man roster, and have some extra pool money to play with for their other two picks. A plan worth considering, at the very least. It depends how the draft board shakes out, really, and what players are available. Here are three college relievers who could be first round targets under this plan:

• Dallas Baptist LHP Burl Carraway (video) (MLB.com scouting report)
• Chapman RHP Nick Garcia (video) (MLB.com scouting report)
• Coastal Carolina RHP Zach McCambley (video) (MLB.com scouting report)

All three reportedly grade out well on Trackman (spin rate, etc.), which puts them in the Yankees' wheelhouse. Carraway is the best pure reliever in the draft class and a mid-to-late second round pick on talent. He would be the obvious target for any "take a college reliever, pay him below-slot, and fast track him to the big leagues" plan. Other World Series contenders could have the same idea as the Yankees and grab Carraway earlier in the first round (the Nationals, Athletics, and Twins jump to mind as possibilities), in which case the Yankees would have to look elsewhere. Minnesota's Max Meyer, who I wasted time writing about, and Louisville's Reid Detmers are the two most MLB ready pitchers in the draft class, but they're both projected top 10 picks, and not realistic options for the Yankees. For the "fast track to MLB plan," it could be Carraway or bust for the Yankees. He might be the only guy they're willing to do it with, and if he's off the board when their pick comes around, the Yankees could pivot to a more traditional draft strategy. I should note the track record of college relievers rushed to MLB is poor. Chris Sale is the most notable recent exception -- he was in the big leagues a few weeks after the draft -- and he a) was a starter in college, and b) is an outlier. He's a freak and I mean that as a compliment. Chad Cordero was a college reliever who debuted a few weeks after being drafted, and he was good for a few years before getting hurt. Huston Street made the Opening Day roster the year after being drafted and had a very long career. Those guys are pretty much the only success stories for this strategy. That said, teams are better at player development now than maybe ever (the Yankees are certainly better at it than they have been in a long time) and we are in unusual times, and using the 50th spot on the 50-man roster to give a young pitcher pro instruction isn't a bad idea when the alternative is carrying a veteran reclamation project and letting the kid sit at home until next spring. He might not see much game action, but whatever work he does with the taxi squad could be beneficial long-term.

3. 2020 draft prospect: Arizona HS SS Carson Tucker. Now for a more traditional draft profile. We've already covered RHP Clayton Beeter, RHP Nick Bitsko, RHP Tanner Burns, OF Pete Crow-Armstrong, RHP Cade Cavalli, RHP Slade Cecconi, C Dillon Dingler, LHP Jake Eder, 2B Justin Foscue, SS Nick Loftin, RHP J.T. Ginn, OF Isaiah Greene, RHP Bryce Jarvis, LHP Luke Little, RHP Max Meyer, RHP Bobby Miller, 1B Aaron Sabato, RHP C.J. Van Eyk, and C Austin Wells. Carson is the younger brother of Pirates prospect Cole Tucker, the 24th overall pick in the 2014 draft, and the two are said to be opposites on and off the field. Cole is a speedy defense first shortstop and very outgoing and gregarious, with obvious enthusiasm for the game. Carson is a bat over glove player and much more quiet and reserved, so much so that he can appear aloof and disinterested on the field. That doesn't mean he doesn't care or love the game, it just means he can give that impression at times. MLB.com ranks Tucker as the 52nd best prospect in the draft class. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranks him 61st. The Yankees hold the 28th overall pick. Here's a chunk of MLB's scouting report (here's video):

At the plate, the right-handed hitter displays excellent bat control and bat speed over power, though he showed added strength this season. He’s often content to push the ball the other way and to the right-center field gap, though the ball does jump off his bat ... Tucker has the feet and hands to play shortstop long-term, even though he’s an average runner. He has average arm strength, though his throws have good carry and he shows the ability to change arm action and slots as is needed for the premium position.

Tucker was good in showcase events last summer and he reportedly looked even better in the few games his high school played prior to the shutdown this year. Eric Longenhagen says the Yankees had some of their head scouting honchos at Tucker's games this spring, and, for what it's worth, I've heard they're hot on him. Maybe "hot on him" is overselling it a bit, but there is definite interest. Longenhagen adds Tucker, a Texas commit, is motivated to sign, even if it means taking a below-slot bonus in the first round. This draft is thin on middle infielders and Tucker has a chance to remain at shortstop while providing offense. He has good bloodlines too, and I reckon his apparently willingness to take a below-slot bonus will appeal to many teams. Jim Callis says Tucker is a "hot name right now" and adds he could come off the board before the Yankees pick. Also, despite my earlier ramblings about fast tracking a reliever, Callis also says the Yankees are hoping to get a quality bat in the first round and pitchers with their other two picks, and Tucker would fit. Getting him at a below-slot bonus would leave extra money for arms in a pitching rich draft class.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Zelous Wheeler. We continue clearing out the backlog of random Yankee requests with a player who saved his career with a Triple-A mechanical tweak. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Melky Mesa, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Mark Reynolds, DeWayne Wise, and Kerry Wood. Wheeler was drafted by the Brewers in the 19th round of the 2007 draft, and he played in their farm system until being claimed off waivers by the Orioles in March 2012. The Yankees signed him as a minor league free agent in Nov. 2013 and let him compete for a bench spot in Spring Training. Wheeler had a very good spring (.297/.381/.467), but the Yankees went with Dean Anna and Yangervis Solarte instead, so Wheeler started the season with Triple-A Scranton. With the RailRiders, he worked with hitting coach Butch Wynegar to close his stance and implement a leg kick. From John DeMarzo:

"He made some adjustments,” Wynegar said, when asked to what he could  attribute Wheeler’s improvement. “He was wide open with his stance in Norfolk and then he tried to get close up to ‘get square.’ This year, he’s more square and he’s implemented the leg kick. I thought they were good adjustments, and now I want to get back to [him] not kicking as high."

Wheeler hit .268/.340/.421 with 17 doubles and 10 home runs in 90 Triple-A games with the Orioles in 2013. In 2014, he hit .299/.367/.467 with 20 doubles and seven home runs in his first 65 games with Scranton. The adjustments seemed to help him unlock some power, so, with Solarte mired in a long slump (7-for-54) in early July, the Yankees made the switch. Up came Wheeler and down went Solarte on July 3rd. Wheeler made his MLB debut that day and had an immediate impact, launching a solo home run in his second at-bat. Here's the video. He ripped a single later in the game as well. Joe Girardi platooned the righty hitting Wheeler with the lefty hitting Kelly Johnson at third base for a few weeks and Wheeler did well enough, going 7-for-26 (.269) with two home runs (here's the other homer). He didn't draw a walk but he only struck out four times, so there was a lot of contact. Lot of contact and at least one nifty defensive play. The Yankees acquired Chase Headley on July 22nd and, if you remember, he hit a walk-off single that night. Here's the video. Wheeler started that game at third base and Headley replaced him as a pinch-hitter in the eighth inning, after arriving at the ballpark in the middle innings (the Padres were in Chicago). The Yankees sent Wheeler back to Triple-A a few days later, and he rejoined the team in late August, after Carlos Beltran landed on the injured list. He played sparingly the rest of the season (only 31 plate appearances in the final 38 games) and finished his Yankees career with a .193/.230/.298 batting line and two homers in 62 plate appearances. The Yankees removed Wheeler from the 40-man roster after the season, but rather than release him or outright him to Triple-A, they sold his rights to the Rakuten Golden Eagles in Japan. With Wheeler's permission, of course. Wheeler's agent worked out a deal with Rakuten and the Golden Eagles paid the Yankees $350,000 to let him out of his contract. Standard arrangement when a non-free agent heads overseas. Wheeler hit .296/.367/.467 with nine homers in 82 Triple-A games in 2014 and Rakuten bet that production would translate, and it did:

• 2015: .270/.358/.492 with 21 homers
• 2016: .265/.351/.478 with 27 homers
• 2017: .271/.342/.493 with 31 homers 

Rakuten rewarded Wheeler with a two-year contract worth $3.5M after that 2017 season, and he signed a new one-year deal worth $1.86M this past offseason. Wheeler, now 33, is a career .262/.339/.459 hitter with 106 homers in five seasons with Rakuten, and he's banked more than $5M in the process. Good for him. Wheeler parlayed those adjustments with Wynegar in Triple-A in 2014 into a very nice career overseas.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. Most teams, including the Yankees, have released minor leaguers set to become free agents after the season these last few days. There's not going to be a proper minor league season this year, so teams are making the cold-blooded business decision to cut those players loose and save money (via the $400 weekly stipend and benefits) these next few months. It is what it is. Anyway, the fact teams are releasing their impending free agents indicates those players were not going to have their free agency pushed back a year by the canceled season. They're gaining a year of service even without playing the season. That leads me to believe players due to become Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter will still become Rule 5 Draft eligible. Their eligibility will not be pushed back a year. That makes sense and is fair to the players, and now we have some confirmation that is the case. Here's what I wrote about the Yankees' Rule 5 Draft eligible prospects a few weeks ago. The recent wave of releases gives us clarity on their situation ... According to Andy Martino, MLB will offer eliminating the qualifying offer this offseason and the luxury tax next year in an effort to get the MLBPA to agree to another pay reduction. Doesn't that seem kinda meaningless? Teams will cut back on future spending with or without another salary reduction this year, so any player who would've been on the qualifying offer bubble probably won't get it. Getting rid of the qualifying offer helps Mookie Betts, J.T. Realmuto, maaaybe guys like Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman, and that's about it. As for the luxury tax, so few teams are up against it that it doesn't matter much. It would save the Yankees a few bucks, sure, but MLB is going to try to sell this as "no luxury tax means teams will spend more!" and that's pretty dubious. Good ideas, in theory, and if MLB is going to offer to shelve the qualifying offer and luxury tax, the MLBPA should take it. I just don't see it as a big concession. Certainly not enough to agree to another salary reduction. For MLB, these seem like easy concessions to make because teams are going to cut back on spending anyway, so scrapping the luxury tax and qualifying offer for a year will have minimum impact on the way they're planning to operate ... And finally, J.J. Cooper and Josh Norris (subs. req'd) report MLB is considered two fall leagues this season. The Arizona Fall League would expand to 15 teams (rather than six) and play a longer season (rather than 29 games), and there would be a second 15-team league in Florida. The Florida Fall League, basically. Each MLB organization would have their own team with a 30-ish man roster, and apparently there's talk of giving each organization a second lower level team in each league, so essentially a minor league fall league. Good idea and I hope MLB goes through with it and conditions allow. Also, televise the games! Broadcasting every game is not realistic, but, at an absolute minimum, there should be a game on MLB Network every night once the World Series ends. Maybe even two games a day, one at 1pm ET and one at 7pm ET. Do it, MLB.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Tyler asks: With the recent decisions teams have made to release hundreds of minor leaguers to avoid paying them $400/week, could there be an opportunity for the Yankees to pick up some players for peanuts? The decision to release the players is obviously absolutely unconscionable by the owners, but could possibly represent an opportunity for teams that are willing to spend an extra few bucks.

Tyler submitted this question before the Yankees got in on the act and released 45 minor leaguers of their own. That doesn't necessarily mean free agents will be driven away -- at this point, I imagine many released players will take any job they can get -- but it probably means the Yankees are not about to jump into the market to sign players.

Most players who were released these last few days are organizational depth players, not prospects. There's a chance the next Max Muncy is out there -- the A's released Muncy at the end of Spring Training 2017 -- but the odds are against it. J.J. Cooper and Chris Hilburn-Trenkle have the list of 700+ released minor leaguers. Only four caught my eye:

• LHP Luiz Gohara (former Mariners and Braves prospect)
• OF Anfernee Grier (39th overall pick in 2016)
• LHP Tyler Jay (sixth overall pick in 2015)
• 1B/3B Drew Ward (former Nationals prospect)

Jay, a former high draft pick, and Gohara, a former top 100 prospect, stand out given their prospect pedigree, though both are pretty far gone at this point. Jay's stuff has been down for years, so much so that he was traded for cash last summer. Gohara's been hurt and he didn't pitch at all last season. 

Grier hasn't hit (career .240/.320/.352) but he's only 24 and a great athlete with tools. Here's what Jeffrey Paternostro (subs. req'd) says about him:

Several high-ranking someones in the Diamondbacks org thought he was worth the seven-figure bonus. That usually matters to other teams, many of whom probably had similar grades on him as an amateur. So first rounders usually catch on with another org or two if they get cut down the line. These are not usual times.

And if they were usual times, I don’t know if Grier would have been cut so quickly. He’s struggled in High-A, and despite his raw athletic tools, played more right field than center, but an informal poll of our Cal League contingent put the chance that it clicks for him, and he develops into a real major-league bench piece, at somewhere from 5-15 percent. Not the biggest bucket here or close to it, but you might take a longer look at the 10 percent guy if the entire minor league apparatus wasn’t about to shrink by 25 percent or so. The Diamondbacks were doing the math the whole time as well.

But some percentage of the Anfernee Griers out there do figure it out. Maybe it’s only 10 percent, but the return is worth more than 400 bucks a week.

Squint your eyes and there's still some upside wither Grier. Could certainly do worse as a lower level depth outfielder. Ward, meanwhile, was knocking on the MLB door 14 months ago. The Yankees are thin at third base in the system and he'd address that need.

If the Yankees want to sign those four guys or anyone else, cool. There's no such thing as a bad minor league deal. This week's releases are not the most exciting group of players though, and since there's unlikely to be a minor league season this year, I wouldn't count on the Yankees signing anyone anytime soon.

Kevin asks (short version): I was reading a piece on the 1995 strike and the possibility of replacement players. How do you think you would cover replacement Yankees if this ever occurred? Would you dive in with analysis, previews, discussion or do you think you would be turned off by it and have a hard time writing about the team?

Yeah, replacement players would be a put-off. I'm pro-labor and writing about scabs is in no way appealing to me. I'd still do it because it's my job at CBS and y'all are paying me to do it here, but I wouldn't like it. Also, the quality of play would really suffer and it would make the entire baseball experience (watching, writing, etc.) less enjoyable, at least to me. 

I suppose the good news is I write about things I don't necessarily enjoy all the time, so I'm experienced at holding my nose and producing #content. Fortunately, I don't anticipate MLB ever using replacement players in actual games. They may threaten to do it during a work stoppage, and heck, maybe we'll see them in Spring Training like in 1995, but I don't think it'd ever get to the point where replacement players play in meaningful regular season games. It'd be such a black eye for the sport.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com. Been running a little short on questions the last few weeks as the shutdown drags on, but all submissions are appreciated.)