June 23rd, 2020: Return to Play, Spring Training, Wells

In a world without pandemics, the Yankees would have opened a three-game home series with the Orioles last night. It would have been their 79th game of the season, meaning tomorrow's series finale would have been Game No. 81. Midpoint of the season. Instead, we're still waiting for Spring Training to resume. So much baseball lost. Anyway, let's get to today's thoughts. (Sorry for the shorter than usual post. The return to play stuff broke late last night and I was busy with CBS. I'll make up for it Friday.)

1. Latest on return to play. It seems pretty obvious now that commissioner Rob Manfred's meeting with MLBPA chief Tony Clark last weekend was nothing more than a stall tactic. It came soon after the union told Manfred to schedule the season -- "Tell us when and where" -- and, initially, I thought the meeting was a sincere last ditch effort to strike a deal. How stupid of me. In the 10 days since, MLB made one new proposal -- it was their first proposal with full pro-rated pay -- and refused to counter the MLBPA's counter-proposal. MLB never showed much urgency to get a deal done. The MLBPA proposed 70 games last week, and once MLB rejected that, the union had two options:

• Option 1: Agree to a 60-game season, waive the right to a grievance, play an expanded postseason, have advertisements on jerseys, and receive concessions (postseason pool money, salary advance forgiveness, etc.) that would push their earnings to 104% prorated pay (62.4 games worth of salary) per MLB's calculations.
• Option 2: Let Manfred unilaterally schedule a 60-game season and give MLB none of *gestures at all that*.

Retaining the right to hold a grievance is a pretty big deal! A grievance could equal millions (billions?) in damages and back pay down the line, plus a deeper look into MLB's books during the discovery phase. Also, it's an enormous piece of leverage heading into next year's Collective Bargaining Agreement talks. Dropping the grievance is something the union could trade for a major concession (higher minimum salary, etc.). MLB wanted the MLBPA to give up a grievance and help generate additional revenue through an expanded postseason and help generate even more revenue with ads on jerseys, and all they were willing to give them was an extra 2.4 games worth of salary? MLB and Manfred stalled as long as possible, and now that there's only enough time play 50-60 games, that's what they'll schedule. MLB's various proposals all worked out to roughly one-third of full season salary and 60 games is 37% of a full 162-game season. This was always the endgame. Pay the players less than 40% of their full season salary, either with a negotiated agreement or by unilaterally scheduling the season. The latter it is. I'm glad we can stop talking about this now because my goodness, I am over the labor battle. How off-putting. I love this stupid sport and even I'm starting to reach the point where, if they don't play this year, I'll survive. I don't need baseball as much as I thought, and if I feel that way, how do casual fans feel? I just don't want to hear about the business side of the game anymore. No mas. I need a break. Schedule the season, figure out the health and safety stuff, and let's play some baseball. I miss Aaron Judge outfield throws and Adam Ottavino sliders and glorious dingers. Bring it to me and maybe I'll be willing to overlook the last few weeks.

2. Spring Training moved. The return to play landscape changed over the weekend. MLB shut down all Spring Training complexes after several teams reported COVID-19 outbreaks at their facilities, including the Yankees. George King reports four members of the Yankees organization tested positive recently. They're all based in Tampa. Two work at George M. Steinbrenner Field and two "have ties" to the minor league complex across the street. "The two connected to George M. Steinbrenner Field are non-players and one of the two at the minor league complex is a staff member who hasn’t been around the Yankees’ facility for a while," King wrote. The Phillies train nearby and they had eight people test positive for COVID-19 (five players and three staffers) last week. The Blue Jays, another team that trains nearby, had a 40-man roster pitcher exhibit symptoms, and the NHL's Tampa Bay Lightning, another pro sports team in the area, had to shut down their workouts after multiple players tested positive. (Marc Topkin says the Rays are still working out at Tropicana Field, for what it's worth.) The Astros and Angels also reported positive tests and they're outside the Tampa Bay area, which tells us this is not an isolated outbreak (the Astros train on the other side of Florida and the Angels train in Arizona). With Arizona and Florida seeing big spikes in COVID-19 cases, teams have decided to shift Spring Training 2.0 to their Major League ballpark in their home city. The Yankees made the announcement Saturday:

As New York Governor Andrew Cuomo announced this afternoon, the New York Yankees will hold a potential spring training resumption at Yankee Stadium. We will continue to follow Major League Baseball’s guidelines and protocols, and we will vigilantly work with Governor Cuomo, Mayor de Blasio and their health authorities, as well as with federal officials and Major League Baseball’s own medical and infectious disease experts, to ensure our facility maintains the best possible safety standards.

The health and safety of our players, staff and employees, and of their respective families, will always be our top priority.

Yankees players in Tampa were split into groups of four and had their workouts staggered throughout the day. Miguel Andujar, Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Giancarlo Stanton, and Luis Severino were all there based on various reports the last two months. I'm sure there were others as well (J.A. Happ makes his offseason home nearby in Clearwater, so he was probably there too). Bob Nightengale reports there were 40 positive tests in baseball just last week, which is a scary number, but it'll only get bigger going forward. Just do the math:

• 30-man active roster plus 20-man taxi squad
• 10 coaches and trainers
• 20 support staff (grounds crew, clubhouse attendants, etc.)

I'm willing to bet there will be more than 10 coaches and trainers, and more than 20 support personnel, but let's roll with it. That right there is 80 people per team in Spring Training 2.0. Across the league it's 2,400 people. The positive test rate in the United States is roughly 5% right now. Let's say MLB can knock that down to 2% with staggered workouts and other measures (social distancing, masks, etc.). Test everyone in MLB's bubble during Spring Training and you're still looking at 48 positive tests. That's per round of testing, and MLB is expected to test players (but not necessarily everyone else) multiple times a week. What happens if there are dozens of positive tests when everyone reports to Spring Training rather than one or two? When baseball was put on hold in March, it was assumed it would return when COVID-19 was (mostly) contained and things were getting closer to normal. They're not. Things are certainly better in New York than they were weeks ago, and I'm thankful for that, but we are an outlier. Cases are up specifically in the south and southwest, and MLB continues to say they're worried about a second wave in the fall. Can you have a second wave if the first wave doesn't end? The shutdown started as a necessary response to the pandemic and morphed into a full blown labor war, but the pandemic never went away. I really hope the season can begin safely and be played to completion, not only because I'm a baseball fan and because I miss the sport, but also because it's a massive industry that employs thousands of regular folks who would otherwise lose their jobs. I'd be lying if I said I wasn't discouraged by the news the last few days though. The return to play plan is kinda sorta in place now but that's only part of the battle. The chances the pandemic doesn't let them finish the season are much higher than I would like.

3. Wells at other positions. Two weeks ago the Yankees used their first round pick, the 28th overall selection, on University of Arizona catcher Austin Wells. Like Jorge Posada and Gary Sanchez, Wells is a hitter first and a catcher second. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranked Wells as the 21st best prospect in the draft class but noted "there are more scouts who are skeptical of Wells’ receiving ability than think he can make it as a catcher," adding he has the most trouble "blocking and receiving pitches, especially knee to knee on his glove side." MLB.com's scouting report was a little more forgiving, saying Wells is "adequate behind the plate." Just about everyone believes Wells can -- and will -- hit. He performed well in college (.357/.476/.560) and in the Cape Cod League (.308/.389/.526), he's an exit velocity guy, and he's a lefty hitter with Yankee Stadium friendly pull power. The bat will play anywhere. The question is where will that anywhere be? Draft guru Jim Callis recently called Wells one of the "best all-around bats" in college baseball and said he would "move him elsewhere immediately (and) get the most out of his bat." It's a popular sentiment any time a young catcher can hit but not really defend. There was speculation the Orioles would move 2019 No. 1 overall pick Adley Rutschman to another position, though that was always kinda dumb because Rutschman is an excellent defender. He's staying at catcher. The Nationals moved Bryce Harper out from behind the plate back in the day. He was a catcher at his junior college -- Harper got his GED as a sophomore so he could attend a junior college and enter the draft a year early (he hit .442/.524/.986 with 29 home runs in 62 games as what amounted to a high school junior in his JuCo season) -- but the Nationals moved him to the outfield immediately to get his bat through the system as quickly as possible. Here's what Nationals GM Mike Rizzo said at the time (via Bill Ladson):

“I think we made the early decision that we’re going to take the rigors and the pressure of learning the difficult position of catcher away from him and really let him concentrate on the offensive part of the game and let his athleticism take over as an outfielder. He’s got above average speed and a plus plus throwing arm. We believe that he could pull off being a Major League catcher. We think his bat is well ahead of his defense as a catcher, and with the rigors of the game of catching, the squatting, the beating that they take behind the plate, we just think that it will accelerate his development in the minor leagues and also extend his career as a Major Leaguer.” 

Harper's bat was simply too special to putz around at catcher. He shifted to the outfield and was in the big leagues less than two years after being drafted. Harper was a special case though. Not really fair to compare Wells or anyone else to him. I think these guys are more appropriate comparisons for Wells:

• Daric Barton (28th overall in 2003): 90 games at catcher in the minors
• Paul Konerko (13th overall in 1994): 131 games
• Joey Votto (44th overall in 2002): 7 games
• Neil Walker (11th overall in 2004): 168 games
• Jayson Werth (22nd overall in 1997): 403 games

All drafted as bat first catchers. Votto moved to first base pretty much immediately. Barton and Konerko spent two seasons at catcher before moving to first base. Walker and Werth damn near made it to the big leagues as catchers. Walker was athletic enough to move to second base and Werth was able to play the outfield. Josh Donaldson is worth mentioning as well. He was the 48th pick in the 2007 draft and he caught all throughout the minors (398 minor league games at catcher) and even caught some in the big leagues. The Athletics moved him to third base out of necessity in 2012 -- former Yankee Scott Sizemore tore his ACL in Spring Training -- and Donaldson finally broke out offensively once he no longer had to focus on everything that comes with being a catcher. Luke Voit was drafted as a catcher too. He caught caught 45 games in 2013, his pro debut, before sliding over to first base the next season. By all accounts Wells is athletic enough to at least try the outfield. First base is not fait accompli. Here are a few scouting reports:

• Baseball America (subs. req'd): "Some observers believe Wells is athletic enough to handle the outfield and that his range and instincts can be developed"
• FanGraphs: "(Wells is) athletic enough to roam the outfield and avoid first base"
• MLB.com: "He is a decent enough athlete to play first or figure things out in left field"

That's ... good? Doesn't sound like Walker or Werth (or Donaldson) athleticism, but at least there's a chance Wells won't be relegated to first base long-term. There are other factors that go into the decision to change Wells' position too. For starters, the automated strike zone is coming at some point. Maybe not next year, maybe not the year after, but pretty soon. MLB clearly wants it and it was going to be tested in various minor leagues this year, before the pandemic changed everything, so the automated strike zone is not too far from becoming a reality. Once it does, pitch-framing will cease to exist, and catchers with subpar receiving will gain value. Secondly, the Yankees hired catching guru Tanner Swanson over the winter, and he is in charge of catcher development throughout the organization. He turned Mitch Garver, an extreme bat first guy prior to 2019, into a pretty good defensive catcher. Swanson is working with Gary Sanchez and I have to believe the Yankees are hoping he can work his magic with Wells as well. Do you really want to change the kid's position before Swanson works with him and you're absolutely sure he can't catch? Those are two arguments for keeping Wells at catcher. On the other side of the coin, the Yankees' window to win is as open as its going to get. Sanchez, Gerrit Cole, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, et al are in their primes and on the roster. That might not be the case in three years. The quicker Wells gets to the big leagues, the better his chances of helping this core win a World Series. Catchers are notoriously slow to develop -- catchers who zoom through the minors like Buster Posey are exceedingly rare -- and Wells may not be ready to help until Judge and Sanchez are nearing free agency, Cole and Giancarlo Stanton are into their 30s, Torres gets crazy expensive through arbitration as a Super Two, etc. I don't want to say keeping Wells at catcher means he may not arrive until it's too late to help that group win a title, but maybe? Six years ago the Cubs drafted Kyle Schwarber, another bat first catcher, and they kept him behind the plate in the minors. Theo Epstein & Co. insisted they believed he could catch. Then the Cubs returned to contention ahead of schedule in 2015 and needed another bat, and they moved Schwarber to left field to get his MLB ready bat in the lineup. That could be the path the Yankees take with Wells. Send him out as a catcher next year, see how he progresses with Swanson, then shift gears if a) it doesn't work, or b) the bat is just too good to keep buried in the minors much longer. Scouting director Damon Oppenheimer indicated the Yankees will keep Wells at catcher -- "We love his desire and makeup, along with his athleticism. We have known him for years and seen him progress quite a bit behind the plate to allow us to believe he can be an impact guy," he said in a post-draft statement -- and that's fine. In the two weeks since the draft, I've gradually shifted from "keep him at catcher until it's clear he can't do it because that's where he'd be most valuable" to "well, let's keep an open mind about this." If there's a chance Wells can help the Yankees win a World Series within a year or two as a left fielder or first baseman, the team would be foolish not to consider it. I hope Wells improves behind the plate and can catch long-term. Ultimately, he will always be a hitter first, and the sooner the Yankees get his bat to the Bronx, the better.

4. Remembering a random Yankee: Juan Miranda. Up next in our series looking back at random Yankees of yesteryear is a player who successfully defected Cuba after six failed attempts in a six-month span. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, DeWayne Wise, and Kerry Wood. Miranda had quite a bit of success as a teenager in Cuba, hitting .299/.420/.544 in over 1,100 plate appearances from 2001-04, his age 17-20 seasons. His first defection attempt came early in 2004, and when it failed, he spent seven days in prison and was barred from ever playing baseball again in his home country. Miranda kept trying to defect and was finally successful later that year. The then-21-year-old spent five days on the water in a 40-50 foot fishing boat before arriving in the Dominican Republic. "I can never go back. It's crazy," he told Chad Jennings in May 2010. It took Miranda two years to gain citizenship in the Dominican Republic and he could not play for a team in the interim, so he had to work out on his own. The Yankees eventually signed him to a four-year contract worth $4M out of a tryout camp in Dec. 2006. "I only found out about him when our guy saw him working out in the Dominican Republic. We signed him after a tryout," Brian Cashman told Jennings. Miranda split 2007 between High-A Tampa and Double-A Trenton, hitting .265/.350/.471 with 16 home runs in 122 games. He did well in the Arizona Fall League that year (.295/.423/.551) and the Yankees sent him to Triple-A Scranton to begin 2008. Miranda hit .287/.384/.449 with 12 homers in 99 Triple-A games that year while the Yankees cycled through a small army of first basemen in the Bronx. Eight different players started a game at first base that year, including Morgan Ensberg and Richie Sexson. Miranda did receive a Sept. call-up and went 4-for-10 with a double in limited action. Baseball America ranked him as the No. 20 prospect in the farm system that winter, though Miranda's path to the Bronx was blocked as soon as the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira. He spent 2009 in Triple-A again (.290/.369/.498) and went 3-for-9 with a homer during his Sept. call-up. The home run was a bomb to the back wall at Tropicana Field (video) and one of the other hits was a walk-off single off Kyle Farnsworth. Quite literally too, as the ground ball back up the middle hit Farnsworth and deflected away from the defenders. Here's the video. Miranda again opened 2010 in Triple-A but did manage to get into 33 big league games following Nick Johnson's wrist injury. He hit .219/.296/.422 with three homers in 71 plate appearances spread across those 33 games as part-time first baseman and part-time DH that year, and he drew a walk-off walk during his Sept. call-up. Here's the video. Miranda went back to Triple-A after the Yankees acquired Lance Berkman at the deadline and finished the season with a .285/.371/.495 batting line and 15 home runs in 80 Triple-A games. Classic Quad-A story. Miranda had mashed three straight years in Triple-A but received few MLB opportunities, and didn't stand out when he did play. Miranda was out of minor league options and the Yankees were set at first base (Teixeira) and DH (Jorge Posada after the Russell Martin signing), so, in Nov. 2010, the Yankees traded Miranda to the Diamondbacks for minor league righty Scottie Allen, who barely made it out of Single-A and has been out of baseball since 2013. Miranda hit .253/.330/.458 (109 wRC+) with four home runs in 94 plate appearances with the Yankees and .287/.374/.481 (134 wRC+) with 46 home runs in 1,259 plate appearances with Triple-A Scranton from 2008-10. He started 2011 in a first base platoon with Xavier Nady in Arizona but was ineffective, and was dropped from the 40-man roster that July. That cleared the way for the D'Backs to call up Paul Goldschmidt. Miranda spent the rest of 2011 in Triple-A with Arizona, 2012 in Triple-A with the Rays, 2013 in the Mexican League, 2014 with the Nippon Ham Fighters in Japan, and 2015-17 back in the Mexican League. Now 37, Miranda has been out of baseball since 2018.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)