June 26th, 2020: Return to Play, 60-Man Roster, Free Agents, Judge, Mailbag

Baseball is on the way back and I am weirdly ambivalent about it. I can't wait to watch some games, don't get me wrong, but labor battle fatigue has me feeling relieved more than excited, and of course I'm still worried about the pandemic. Completing this season without a major COVID-19 outbreak would be a massive success. I'm rooting for that more than anything. Let's get to today's thoughts now that we can talk about actual baseball stuff.

1. Return to play plan. Commissioner Rob Manfred unilaterally scheduled a 60-game season earlier this week and Spring Training 2.0 will begin Wednesday. All personnel has to report a few days early to undergo COVID-19 testing, and the original 67-page health and safety document swelled to 101 pages in the final version. Opening Day will be either July 23rd or 24th -- I'm guessing the league will have a few national television broadcasts to kick off the season on the 23rd with the traditional league-wide Opening Day on the 24th, and we can probably pencil the Yankees in for the 23rd because they're the Yankees -- and teams will play 60 games in 66 days. There are no scheduled doubleheaders to maximize the number of games played (rainouts can be made up during doubleheaders though). The regular season will end Sept. 27th and the 10-team postseason will take place in October. As expected, MLB and the MLBPA agreed to a series of rule changes to make things safer during the pandemic. Craig Calcaterra has the most comprehensive list of rule changes I've seen in one place. Now let's break down what they mean for the Yankees.

60-game regional schedule

The regional schedule is a go. Teams will play 10 games against each of their division rivals and 20 games total against the corresponding division in the other league. The Yankees will play six games against the Mets, so the remaining 14 interleague games will be split among the other four NL East teams. The schedule is not out yet -- Evan Drellich says it probably won't be announced until next week because teams are still reviewing it -- but I hope 10 games against each division rival means we'll get two five-game series to limit travel. Splitting the 10 games into two three-game series and two two-game series is unnecessary. Just play two five-game series. Anyway, Dan Szymborski ran the numbers and the Yankees have the third easiest 60-game schedule according to ZiPS. Their opponents have a combined .483 projected winning percentage. Only the Twins (.478) and Indians (.481) have it easier. Huh. ZiPS projects the Yankees at 37-23, one game behind the Dodgers for the best record in baseball and two games ahead of the Rays in the AL East. Unfortunately, the Yankees also have the game's largest drop in postseason odds (-31.2%) and World Series odds (-9.5%) from a 162-game season to a 60-game season. That is partly because Luis Severino went down with Tommy John surgery since the 162-game projection, and also because the short season closes the talent gap between the Yankees and Rays (and Red Sox). There's less time for each team's true talent level to shine through and create separation in the standings. It'll be a 60-game mad dash. (As for Spring Training, teams will mostly be limited to intrasquad workouts, though they can arrange up to three exhibition games against another team. Gotta think the Yankees and Mets will work that out and play a tune-up game or three.)

Extra innings tiebreaker rule

The minor league extra innings tiebreaker rule is coming to MLB. A runner will be placed at second base at the start of each half-inning starting in the tenth. MLB doesn't want games going deep into extra innings and this is a temporary measure. It's going away in 2021. The runner at second will be the batter in the lineup spot before the hitter due to leadoff the inning, so if No. 3 hitter Gleyber Torres is due to leadoff, No. 2 hitter Aaron Judge will be the runner at second. If that run scores, it counts as an unearned run for the pitcher. A few things about this. One, most extra innings will start with a bunt to move the runner to third, and then an intentional walk to set up the double play. MLB would save a lot of time by starting extra innings with runners on the corners and one out. Two, having seen this rule in action in the minors and in the World Baseball Classic, it puts the home team on the defensive. The road team has the opportunity to score first and they usually manage to push across a run, so the home team has to play catch-up. I'd almost rather let the home team bat in the top half of the inning to give them that advantage. Three, this will affect only a small number of games. Last season there were 208 extra innings games, or roughly one extra innings game per day league-wide. The Yankees played 11 extra innings games last season and they averaged 11.2 extra innings games per year from 2015-2019. Based on that rate, we would expect them to play about four extra inning games in 2020. Could be more, could be less, but these games typically don't happen all that often. And four, I hate this extra innings rule and I never want to see during a real MLB season. I'd rather see ties, honestly. This will not be a normal season though, and I am totally cool with trying new and different things this year. Embrace the weird. Hell, why not start extra innings with the bases loaded and no outs, and really get wild? I don't like this rule but I'm willing to live with it for 60 games. (I assume postseason games will have normal extra innings rules, though I haven't seen that confirmed anywhere.)

60-man rosters

A few weeks ago I wondered whether 50 players are enough to get through an 82-game season. Turns out MLB and the MLBPA agree 50 players will not be enough to get through a 60-game season. Teams can have up to a 60-man roster this year. Works for me. I'd rather teams have too many players available than not enough. Here's the roster breakdown:

• 30-man active roster first two weeks of the regular season.
• 28-man active roster next two weeks of the regular season.
• 26-man active roster the rest of the regular season and postseason.
• Everyone else goes on the taxi squad.
• No mandated roster breakdown (teams can carry as many pitchers as they want).

Following the 1990 and 1994-95 work stoppages MLB opened the season with expanded active rosters before tapering back to normal size a few weeks into the year. They'll do the same thing this time around (there's no Sept. call-ups this year, womp womp). I guess a 30-man active roster all season was too much to ask. Anyway, the taxi squad will be treated like Triple-A. Players on the taxi squad will not accrue service time and they will be paid their minor league salary. Taxi squad players will assume all the risks of playing in a pandemic but get none of the reward. Not fair. Also, moving a player to the taxi squad will burn a minor league option, and the 10-day rule still applies, so you can't send a pitcher to the taxi squad and bring him back three days later when he's ready to pitch again. I'm fine with it. Teams would manipulate the hell out of their roster otherwise. The usual 40-man roster rules apply as well. The Yankees have a full 40-man roster at the moment, so, to summon a non-40-man roster player from the taxi squad, they have to drop someone to make room. Up to three taxi squad players can travel with the team, though one of the three must be a catcher. (Taxi squad players who travel with the team get full MLB per diem even though they're not on the active roster, so I guess that's good.) We'll get to a projected 60-man roster a little later. For now, I just want to say I don't think the taxi squad players are getting a fair shake. They'll take the same risks as active roster players without the same benefits. (The Yankees have not announced their taxi squad location yet. MLB wants it within 100 miles of each team's big league ballpark, though the new agreement says teams can use other locations with MLB's approval. That puts Triple-A Scranton in play. Double-A Trenton or Short Season Staten Island are the closer alternatives.)

Injured list rules

The 15-day injured list was supposed to return for pitchers this year. That won't happen. It will remain a 10-day injured list for everyone. The 60-day injured list is now a 45-day injured list -- it works the same way (players don't count against the 40-man roster), it's just shorter now -- and the Yankees will put Severino on the 45-day injured list as soon as they need a 40-man roster spot. There's also a "COVID-19 related injured list" now. The COVID-19 list is for players who test positive, have confirmed exposure to COVID-19, or show symptoms. Does a teammate or team staffer testing positive count as "confirmed exposure?" I guess we'll find out! There's no minimum or maximum stay on the COVID-19 list, and players must meet certain criteria before being activated, including testing negative twice at least 24 hours apart. Also, players do not have to sign an "acknowledgement of risk" waiver as part of the health and safety deal. Teams can be held liable for unsafe workplace conditions. Score one for the little guy.

Aug. 31st trade deadline

The transactions freeze will be lifted at 12pm ET today and the trade deadline has been pushed back from July 31st to Aug. 31st. Players must be in the organization by Sept. 15th to be eligible for the postseason roster. As long as you're in the organization for the final 13 days of the regular season, you're eligible for the postseason. Weirdly, only players on the 60-man roster can be traded this season, and any player you acquire in a trade has to go on your 60-man roster. Rebuilding teams can't trade a big leaguer for prospects who are sitting at home with an eye on the future. Not sure I like it. Trades will be that much more difficult to complete with a smaller available player pool. Moving the trade deadline back is a no-brainer but, honestly, I don't think trades should be allowed this year. Letting players change clubhouses in the middle of a pandemic is an unnecessary risk -- the entire point of the regional schedule is to limit travel and reduce risk! -- and I can't get on board with taking players away from their families and forcing them to relocate while all this is going on. I understand MLB is attempting to complete a season and crown a World Series champion, and teams should have the opportunity to improve themselves, but I do not like it. I'd rather prohibit trades this year. No reason to make players stress over possibly having to relocate midseason in the middle of a literal pandemic.

TV broadcasts

Broadcasters and camera crews will not travel this year. The broadcast will be provided by the home team each game. That means when the Yankees go to Boston, we'll get NESN camerawork and graphics and whatnot. The road team can still dub their own broadcasters over the home video -- Michael Kay & Co. will reportedly call games remotely from the YES Network studios in Stamford -- but the video feed itself will be provided by the home team. Supposedly MLB has instructed teams to provide a neutral broadcast with an equal number of graphics for each team, but we'll see. YES Network broadcasters without YES Network graphics. Gonna be weird! I'm looking forward to it. Should lead to some funny moments. A little levity never hurt anyone.

What about Domingo?

Domingo German has to serve the final 63 games of his 81-game suspension this year. It is only a 60-game season though, so he won't be eligible to return during the regular season. He can, however, return in the postseason. German would have to sit out the team's first three postseason games to satisfy the suspension, then he could play in the fourth postseason game. Would the Yankees really put a guy who hasn't pitched in a competitive game in over a year on the mound in the postseason? Probably not, but you never know. They might be desperate for pitching in October. If the Yankees miss the postseason, the final three games of German's suspension would not carry over to 2021. His suspension would be considered satisfied after serving only 79 games of the 81-game ban.

2. Projected 60-man roster. Teams must submit their 60-man roster to MLB by 3pm ET this Sunday. When I put together a 50-man roster projection back in April, I had to make a few assumptions (number of pitchers, etc.) and flat out guess who the Yankees would prioritize (prospects or guys who can help now). The new agreement takes away some of the mystery. The agreement says teams can carry as many pitchers as they want, and all 40-man roster players must be on the 60-man roster -- Albert Abreu, Estevan Florial, Luis Gil, and Luis Medina were not on my 50-man projection -- as well as "any non-40-man roster players under contract and reserve to the Club whom the Club anticipates may be selected during the 2020 season." So the entire 40-man roster plus anyone else the team believes could be called up this year. Domingo German is on the restricted list, not the 40-man roster, so he won't count against the 60-man roster. I think? Not sure. We'll find out Sunday. Cardinals righty (and former Yankees minor leaguer) John Brebbia had Tommy John surgery last month and Derrick Goold reports he will not count against the team's 60-man roster. Goold is as reliable as they come, so it's safe to assume Luis Severino will not count against the Yankees' 60-man roster. Since the roster is due in two days, this is our last chance to project it, so let's do that now. Here is the 40-man roster:

Those are the first 39 players on the 60-man roster (40-man minus Severino and not counting German). Easy peasy. What happens from here is the mystery. The Yankees are a World Series contender and the priority will be winning games, always and forever. That doesn't mean they will completely ignore prospects though. There won't be a proper minor league season this year -- MLB will get around to making that official one of these days -- so using a few taxi squad spots on prospects is justifiable, even if you don't think they're big league ready. Whatever practice reps they get with the taxi squad is better than nothing. Anyway, let's fill out those remaining 21 roster spots position-by-position.

Catchers

• Non-roster invitees: Kellin Deglan, Chris Iannetta, Erik Kratz, Wynston Sawyer, Josh Thole
• Other candidates: Austin Wells?

Catcher is the one position you don't want to get caught shorthanded. You can't just throw anyone back there like you can first base or the outfield. The position carries a lot of injury risk and we're also in a pandemic. The chances a team simultaneously loses three catchers to COVID-19 because they all sat in on the same meeting or something are not zero. They might be low, but they're definitely not zero. Also, someone has to catch all those taxi squad pitchers. You can't have one or two catchers carrying that workload. Iannetta, Kratz, and Thole all have MLB time and are obvious taxi squaders. The bet here is Sawyer makes it as well because he has Triple-A experience but Deglan is left on the outside looking in. As for Wells, carrying this year's first round pick on the taxi squad could be very beneficial. Wells is a work in progress behind the plate and he'd get to work with pro instructors rather than sit at home all summer. The Yankees have some big time arms in the system -- I reckon Wells has never caught someone like Luis Medina -- and exposing him to that velocity and that spin would help prepare him for next season. And you know what? Maybe it exposes him as a not-a-catcher and the Yankees decide to move him to another position right away. That's valuable information too. Let's put Wells in the maybe pile and come back to him later. Including Higashioka and Sanchez, we have six catchers on the 60-man roster. Should be enough but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Yankees take more. We still have 17 open roster spots. Onward.

Infielders

• Non-roster invitees: Chris Gittens, Kyle Holder
• Other candidates: Mandy Alvarez, Hoy Jun Park, Anthony Volpe?

Gittens is the reigning Double-A Eastern League MVP -- he hit .281/.393/.500 (164 wRC+) with 23 homers in 115 games at the level last year -- but he's a first base only guy, and that is not a position that affords a player a lot of opportunity in this organization right now. Voit is locked in at first base, Ford is a pretty darn good Plan B, LeMahieu can play the position as well, and Andujar worked out there in Spring Training (and even got into a Grapefruit League game at first base). The Yankees are at least three deep and possibly four deep at first base on the 40-man roster alone. And you know what? Iannetta and Kratz (and Sanchez!) have big league experience at first base. They're the emergency options. Sorry, Gittens. Holder is an easy yes. Middle infield is the team's thinnest position on paper -- the Yankees are one injury (or illness) away from Wade starting at short or second -- and while Holder won't hit much, the man can play the hell out of the infield defensively, so he'd provide value that way. I mentioned Alvarez only because he spent last season at Triple-A and that puts him on the radar. He wasn't good though (91 wRC+) and he's first and third base only, so meh. I think Park would make the 60-man roster over Alvarez because again, the Yankees are thin on the middle infield, and he'd provide depth there. The middle infield depth chart looks something like this:

1a. Torres
1b. LeMahieu
3. Wade
4. Estrada
5. Holder

One more middle infielder wouldn't hurt. Park can play the two middle infield spots (well), he can run, and he had an 11.7% walk rate in Double-A last year. As the sixth guy on the depth chart, that's fine. Volpe is an interesting one. Last year's first rounder turned only 19 in April and his pro debut was cut short by mono last season. Between that and the shutdown this year, the kid hasn't played much baseball lately. Volpe needs the reps, by all accounts he's a hard worker and wouldn't be overwhelmed by a big league-ish environment, and he's a New Jersey native who would be close to home no matter where the taxi squad trains (Scranton, Staten Island, Trenton). I'm going to put Volpe in the maybe pile. Alvarez and Gittens are out, Holder and Park are in. They're our 44th and 45th players. Fifteen spots remaining.

Outfield

• Non-roster invitees: Trey Amburgey, Zack Granite, Rosell Herrera, Thomas Milone
• Other candidates: Jasson Dominguez, Canaan Smith?, Zack Zehner

Remember how good Herrera was in Spring Training? Feels like a lifetime ago. He's on the taxi squad for sure, and not only because he went 10-for-25 (.400) before the shutdown. Herrera is a switch-hitter with speed and MLB experience at every position except pitcher, catcher, and first base. Of course he's on the taxi squad. Granite too given his big league experience and ability to play center field. Milone, on the other hand, is an easy no, I think. The Yankees signed him as a minor league free agent over the winter and he's a former third round pick, and they like him enough that they brought him to Spring Training despite little experience above Single-A. He's not a top prospect though, and he's probably not helping you at the big league level this year. Amburgey is the same age (25) and he had success at Triple-A last season (106 wRC+). He'd be the pick over Milone, I believe. Zehner's an organizational depth player and his 60-man roster spot could be better used elsewhere. He's out. The Yankees love Smith -- he really controls the strike zone and knows how to square up the baseball -- and he put up a .307/.405/.465 (154 wRC+) batting line in 124 Low-A games last season. I'm putting him in the maybe pile. Dominguez is the Yankees' top prospect and already one of the top prospects in baseball. Baseball America (subs. req'd) ranked him the 41st best prospect in the game earlier this week, when they updated their top 100 list to include 2020 draftees. Dominguez is also a 17-year-old kid with zero (0) official professional games under his belt. He played in Dominican Instructional League last year and that's it. There's talk of an expanded Arizona Fall League (and possibly a Florida Fall League) and a longer Instructional League later this year, and that's where Dominguez belongs. We have no idea whether the fall leagues will actually happen though, and Dominguez is such a prized prospect that I don't think the Yankees want him sitting out a year, especially a crucial development year at such a young age. I went back on forth on this a few times -- ask me again in a few minutes and I might change my mind -- but, right now, yeah, I think Dominguez is on the 60-man roster for developmental reasons. Being on the taxi squad is the best of a bad situation. Dominguez, Herrera, and Granite make it. We're up to 48 players on our 60-man roster. (I should note Herrera belongs on the middle infield depth chart somewhere. He can play second and short in a pinch.)

Righties

• Non-roster invitees: Domingo Acevedo, David Hale, Dan Otero, Clarke Schmidt, Nick Tropeano, Alex Vizcaino, Tony Zych
• Other candidates: Daniel Alvarez, Roansy Contreras, Kaleb Ort, David Sosebee, Trevor Stephan

Veteran righty Chad Bettis, who was in Spring Training as a non-roster invitee, will not be on the 60-man roster. He announced his retirement yesterday, telling Nick Groke, "Today I am walking away from the game with my head held high, knowing that I pushed my body as far as it could go physically." I had him on my original 60-man roster (thanks for the last minute rewrite Chad, I thought I was done with all that) but now we have an extra spot. Zych hasn't pitched since 2017 because of arm issues but he pitched in a minor league game the day the shutdown was announced, which I guess means he's healthy. Do the Yankees want to use a 60-man roster spot on him though? Not sure. Hale, Otero, Schmidt, and Tropeano are easy yeses. Hale was quite good last season, Tropeano and Otero are serviceable MLB arms (and healthy), and Schmidt is arguably the best pitching prospect in the organization. Contreras and Vizcaino are two quality pitching prospects -- I ranked them 4th and 17th in the system before the season, respectively -- and the Yankees are going to want to get them innings, especially Vizcaino, who needs to show last season's breakout was no fluke to get a 40-man roster spot this offseason. Everyone else listed above is an inventory arm, basically, though I suppose the Yankees could still see Acevedo as a prospect. Either way, those guys can chew innings but aren't priority prospects. Contreras, Hale, Otero, Schmidt, Tropeano, and Vizcaino get us to 54 players. I'm going to assume Zych is healthy and put him on too, so we're at 55 players. Five spots to go. (Adam Warren is progressing with his Tommy John surgery rehab but recently said he won't pitch this year. He and the Yankees are treating it as a rehab year. Was can safely assume he's not a 60-man roster candidate.)

Lefties

• Non-roster invitees: Luis Avilan, Tyler Lyons
• Other candidates: Elvis Escobar, Trevor Lane, James Reeves

Avilan and Lyons are big league veterans and they'll be on the 60-man roster. Lyons was on the postseason roster last year. Remember that? Good times. I should mention Article XX(B) free agents (at least six years of service time and on a minor league contract) must be told today whether they'll be on the 60-man roster, otherwise they can opt out of their contract and pursue opportunities elsewhere. That applies to Avilan, Iannetta, and Otero, though I think all three will make the 60-man roster. Anyway, the Yankees are thin on lefties throughout the organization. Only five southpaws on the 40-man roster and the best lefty prospect in the system is T.J. Sikkema, last year's 38th overall pick, who I don't think it is a realistic 60-man roster candidate. Lane performed well in Double-A last season (1.99 ERA and 3.04 FIP) and I know he's a spin rate guy with fans in the organization, so I think he'll make it. An extra lefty just seems like something teams will want to have on the 60-man roster, even with the three-batter minimum rule now a thing. Avilan, Lane, and Lyons gets us to 58 players. Two spots to go!

The Maybe Pile

Along the way I dropped Wells, Smith, and Volpe into the maybe pile. We have room for two of them on the 60-man roster but -- but! -- the Yankees may need to earmark one of those spots for German should they want him available for the postseason. They have to keep that door open, right? We've seen German pitch pretty, pretty well for weeks at a time, and the Yankees are trying to win a World Series. I feel like leaving German off the 60-man roster all regular season then activating him for the postseason is not a thing that can happen. I'm going to give him a spot. If the Yankees can get away without carrying him on the 60-man roster, great. I'm not going to make that assumption right now. That leaves one open spot. I was ready to dismiss Wells as a 60-man roster candidate because he wasn't signed yet, but he signed yesterday -- Jack Curry reports he received a $2.5M bonus, a touch above his $2,493,900 slot -- so he's in the mix (thanks to you too for the last minute rewrite, Austin). There are definitely valid reasons to put him on the 60-man roster. Volpe or Smith? Smith or Volpe? Volpe is the better prospect and a recent first rounder, and he needs the reps more than Smith, who played a full season last year. Volpe also turned only 19 in April, so I dunno. That's pretty young. I'm going with Wells. The Yankees will probably give the last spot to a pitcher, but I'm going with Wells. So, after all that, here's my projected 60-man roster:

Twenty-seven position players and 33 -- 33! -- pitchers. Makes sense though given the concern about increased injury risk early in the season. My top eight prospects and 13 of my top 17 prospects are on the 60-man roster (teenagers Volpe, Kevin Alcantara, Antonio Cabello, and Everson Pereira are the four exceptions) and the taxi squad features more than a few big league caliber players. You can do a lot worse than Iannetta has your third catcher, and Avilan and Hale (and Otero) stashed as depth relievers. One potential wildcard we must acknowledge: high-risk players who opt out of the season. Carlos Carrasco, Jon Lester, and Anthony Rizzo are cancer survivors. Kenley Jansen has had two heart surgeries in recent years. The sheer numbers tell us there are more players around the league with medical conditions that put them at greater risk of serious complications from COVID-19, and the health and safety agreement allows them to opt out of the season and still receive full pay and service time. I would hope anyone who opts out does so with the full support of their teammates and organization -- there's a segment of fans who get upset when a player spends three days on the paternity list for the birth of a child, so I have no hope for them showing compassion -- though I imagine the player will feel pressure to play anyway. These guys are ultra-competitive and they put pressure on themselves to be there for their team, etc. As far as I know there are no Yankees with health conditions that would classify them as high-risk, though that information is typically kept confidential, so we're just going to have to wait and see. We do know Aaron Boone had open heart surgery in 2009. Might he pass on managing this year for health reasons? I'm guessing he'll manage but I wouldn't blame him for sitting out. A high-risk player(s) opting out would change the 60-man roster, obviously. Based on what we know now, that up there is my projected 60-man roster. Sixty players and 60 games. World Series here they come.

3. Last minute free agents. The roster freeze will be lifted later today and, from what I hear, there will be a flurry of minor moves around the league as teams scoop up free agents to fill out their 60-man roster and whatnot. Yasiel Puig is expected to sign with the Giants, and beyond him, there are basically zero free agents who move the needle. The top unsigned players by projected WAR:

1. Russell Martin: +0.4 WAR (+1.1 WAR per 162 games)
2. Clayton Richard: +0.1 WAR (+0.3 WAR per 162 games)
3. Clay Buchholz: +0.1 WAR
4. Jason Vargas: +0.1 WAR
5. Andrew Cashner: +0.1 WAR

Aaron Sanchez, a personal favorite, is also in the +0.1 WAR bucket, though he's recovering from major shoulder surgery and isn't expected to pitch much this year, if at all. Martin as a taxi squad catcher would be cool with me. Doubt he'd go for it though. He'll probably sign with a team that offers more playing time. The Yankees are short on lefties and Richard is a ground ball guy (59.0% since 2015) who can start or relieve, and when you're talking about the last few spots on a 60-man roster, why not? Jared Hughes is a free agent as well. The journeyman righty reliever had a 1.94 ERA (3.28 FIP) as recently as 2018 and he's always been an extreme ground ball pitcher (career 61.5%), giving him a carrying skill. I mean, I have Trevor Lane and Tony Zych on my projected 60-man roster. There's room for Richard and Hughes. Then again, is there a material difference between those guys? Probably not. If the Yankees make any free agent signings the next few days, they're likely to be very minor tweaks that upgrade the last few spots on the 60-man roster. There are no difference-makers available.

4. Aaron Judge update. Lo and behold, an Aaron Judge update. According to Erik Boland, Judge recently started hitting off a tee down in Tampa. "Didn’t seem to be holding anything back," Boland's source said. MLB shut down all Spring Training complexes for disinfection last weekend, after several teams reported COVID-19 outbreaks, and no personnel is allowed back into a complex until they test negative. I'm not sure whether Judge started hitting before or after the shutdown, but it doesn't really matter. He's hitting again. This is the first Judge update since Aaron Boone said he was "due for another CT scan, I believe, in a couple more weeks" back on May 8th. May 8th! That was seven weeks ago. Apparently the CT scan brought back good news, otherwise Judge wouldn't be hitting, even off a tee. We still don't know what happens from here though. Spring Training will begin Wednesday and it'll only be three weeks long. Unless Judge has been hitting for weeks, it's tough for me to see him being ready for Opening Day. He has to go from tee work to hitting in the batting cage to full batting practice to at-bats against live pitching. That doesn't happen overnight. When Judge broke his wrist in 2018, he went from first rehab swings to an MLB game in 11 days only because the minor league season had ended, and there was nowhere to go for rehab at-bats. And when he came back, he was terrible. He went 9-for-41 (.220) in 13 games with no power before getting back on track just in time for the postseason. It's not impossible, but Judge on the Opening Day roster is looking unlikely. If he has to start on the taxi squad and get at-bats there to get back up to speed at the plate, so be it. The Yankees can put Mike Tauchman in right field, or Giancarlo Stanton, or throw a taxi squad guy like Estevan Florial or Zack Granite or Rosell Herrera out there. Maybe call Jacoby Ellsbury and see what he's doing. If Ellsbury isn't available, they could play with five infielders and two outfielders. If that doesn't work, then I guess the Yankees could give Clint Frazier a shot. In all seriousness, all we know right now is Judge has started the baseball activities portion of his rehab, and that's a good sign. We have an update and progress is being made. Luis Severino isn't coming back this year, but James Paxton is healthy and ready to go, Stanton is healthy and ready to go, and Aaron Hicks is taking full batting practice. He's on track to be the first player in baseball history (probably) to have Tommy John surgery and miss zero games. Hopefully Judge can join them on the Opening Day roster. Just get him healthy and at full strength for as many games as possible. Every game counts that much more during a 60-game season.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Kenny Lofton. By request, our next random Yankee is a player who spent only one season in pinstripes and deserved better than falling off the Hall of Fame ballot in his first year of eligibility in 2013 (68.4 WAR!). We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Juan Miranda, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, DeWayne Wise, and Kerry Wood. The Yankees signed Lofton, then 36 and 13 years into his career, to a two-year deal worth $6.2M in Jan. 2004. More accurately, George Steinbrenner signed Lofton even though the baseball operations folks were against it, according to Joel Sherman. "My ultimate goal is for me to try to win a championship. I'm at a point in my career -- I've been here for 13 years, and gotten close -- this is an opportunity for me to have a chance at it again," Lofton told William Rhoden at the time. Lofton split 2003 between the Pirates and Cubs and he was excellent following the midseason trade to Chicago, hitting .327/.381/.471 in 56 games. The plan was Lofton and Bernie Williams splitting time in center field and also sharing DH duty with Ruben Sierra and others (Jason Giambi, Tony Clark, etc.). Lofton started the first three games of the season in center field but missed much of April and part of May with injuries. He appeared in only 19 of the team's first 60 games, and although Lofton had been solid (.278/.369/.431), Joe Torre was loyal to Bernie, and Williams remained the most of the time center fielder the rest of the season. Lofton started only 52 of the final 101 games, including 10 appearances in right field. It was the first time in his career he'd played a position other than center field. I remember two things about Lofton's stint with the Yankees. First, on Aug. 25th, Lofton slashed a single to center field for his 2,000th career hit. It came in Cleveland, his old stomping grounds, and the crowd gave him a standing ovation. Here's the video. "I didn't know what to expect. I figured I'd get a few claps. It was touching. I tipped my hat, but they just kept going. If there was a storybook way for me to get it, to get it in Cleveland, it was something to remember," he told Mark Feinsand following the game. And second, on Sept. 17th, Mariano Rivera blew a one-run lead in an eventual one-run loss to the Red Sox, and the go-ahead run scored on a Johnny Damon single to center. Lofton charged in on the blooper then pulled up at the last moment, and let it fall in for a hit. Cameras caught Rivera saying something like "Catch the ball!" on the mound. "I didn't think I had a chance to catch it. That's why I didn't dive at it," Lofton told Dom Amore after the game and Torre backed him up, saying "I didn't think he had a prayer to catch it." Catchable or not, the play didn't look good, and Lofton wasn't exactly a fan favorite. He finished the regular season with a .275/.346/.395 (96 wRC+) batting line and only three homers and seven stolen bases in 83 games. He appeared in four games that postseason, all at DH (!), and went 4-for-14 (.286) with a home run. For some reason I thought Lofton made the final out in ALCS Game 7, but I'm wrong. He could have made the final out, but instead drew a walk, then Ruben Sierra grounded out to second to end the series. Lofton made it no secret he was chasing a championship at that point in his career, though he also wanted to play everyday, and was frustrated he didn't play more with the Yankees. "Everybody in New York understood I wanted to play. I just wanted to have an opportunity to perform and be part of the team. I didn't feel as much a part of the team," he told the Associated Press after the season. Rather than continue the relationship, the Yankees traded Lofton (and cash) to the Phillies for setup man Felix Rodriguez in Dec. 2004. Rodriguez was terrible his lone season in pinstripes (18 runs in 32.1 innings) but Lofton was quite good in Philadelphia in 2005, hitting .335/.392/.420 in over 400 plate appearances. Lofton spent 2006 with the Dodgers and split 2007 between the Rangers and Indians (again). He retired following that season with a .299/.372/.423 (109 wRC+) career batting line and 2,428 hits. Lofton is 15th on the all-time stolen base list with 622 (in 782 attempts for a stellar 79% success rate). A great player, undeniably. Just not so great his one year as a Yankee.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. According to Chris Harris and Jayson Stark, the Triple-A Nashville Sounds (Rangers) are planning a two-team, 40-game season at their ballpark. MLB is not willing to provide support, so it would be an independent league for unsigned free agents, essentially. The emphasis would be on players with MLB and Triple-A experience. Players could work out and stay game ready until a big league team has a need and comes calling. Not a bad idea. A lot of guys -- a lot -- are at risk of having their careers end because they're not signed and they have nowhere to properly work out. This gives them an opportunity to try to keep their careers going. I hope it works and a few players get signed ... Remember the Field of Dreams Game? They built the dang stadium despite the pandemic, but the regional schedule means the Yankees and White Sox won't play this year. Tommy Birch reports the Cardinals and Cubs might get the nod instead. No idea whether MLB would want to get the Yankees out to Iowa next season, but it won't happen this year. Bummer. I quite enjoy games in new and unique places. The London Series was a blast.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Brad asks: Who do you see as some of the players who will get non tendered this offseason who normally wouldn’t in a normal offseason? 

There is widespread speculation there will be mass non-tenders this offseason as teams get their payrolls in order. For the Yankees, someone like Luke Voit could be in trouble since the cheaper (and left-handed) Mike Ford is available as a replacement. Bullpeners like Luis Cessa and Jonathan Holder could be in trouble too.

The first name that jumped to mind is Josh Hader. It's unlikely, sure, but Blake Treinen got non-tendered this past offseason, and that was unthinkable going into the season. He had a down year and was going to be expensive in 2020, so expensive that no one was willing to trade for him and pay him. That was pre-pandemic too. Hader was slated to make $4.1M this year, his first arbitration year as a Super Two, so he's already at the top end of the salary scale for a closer at his service time level. Anything other than another elite season could put Hader on the non-tender block.

Here are a few others who could become non-tender candidates this offseason:

• Mark Canha, Athletics: Will be 32 on Opening Day 2021 with a $6M salary or so.
• Edwin Diaz, Mets: Awful last year and was owed $5.1M in 2020. Similar situation as Hader, but more expensive and not as good.
• Kyle Freeland, Rockies: Best pitching season in franchise history in 2018 (+8.2 WAR), terrible in 2019 (-0.8 WAR). Never bet on the Rockies doing something rational.
• Austin Hedges, Padres: A salary in $4M range won't fly for a no-bat/all-framing catcher.
• Ross Stripling, Dodgers: The Dodgers are loaded with pitching and something like $4M is a lot for a sixth starter/swingman.
• Jose Urena, Marlins: Up and down performance, bit of a hot head, looking at $6M or so in 2021.

There are times I wonder whether non-tenders will be as bad as expected. There was talk teams would go cheap in the draft and low-ball players, and that didn't happen, so maybe the non-tender market won't be a bloodbath? Then again, non-tenders equal immediate savings. Draft bonuses are paid out over three years now. I dunno.

Emiliano asks: Here's a bad idea for MLB, considering they need to refresh the product after this disaster. What about a Future Star day on the big team? Call your prospects, let them play for a day with the big league team which will be an incredible opportunity for them, and opportunity for the league to market those future stars on the big stage for a day and a great chance for us, the fans, to see guys wearing pinstripes that maybe never again are going to wear them. Obviously, there are service time issues and all that, but sound fun to me! What about you?

I like it! The thing is, I don't think the majority of fans would care. Casual fans generally have little more than cursory knowledge of their team's prospects -- the Celebrity Softball Game outdrawing the Futures Game every year tells you all you need to know -- and the fans who are into prospects are probably going to watch anyway. 

Yes, Jasson Dominguez or Wander Franco or Spencer Torkelson could grab attention and create a few new fans. I think the gains would be relatively small though, and certainly not enough to trump service time concerns. I think the better solution is figuring out a way to market the stars already in the big leagues. Mike Trout, Francisco Lindor, etc. They're the key to attracting fans. Market them. Not prospects who may never make it.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)