June 30th, 2020: 60-Man Roster, Six-Man Rotation, Garcia, 60-Game Stretches, Happ, Holder

Spring Training 2.0 begins this week and it is officially "MLB Summer Camp presented by Camping World," because everything needs a sponsor. To be fair, Camping World sponsors Spring Training, and this is probably how MLB is fulfilling the contract after the shutdown. Today's thoughts? Today's thoughts. Let's get to 'em.

1. 60-man player pool announced. Sunday was the deadline to submit the 60-man roster and the Yankees announced their player pool later that afternoon. Officially, players not on the active roster are the "player pool" and they will work out at the "alternate training site." The three non-active roster players who travel with the MLB team are the "taxi squad." Got all that? Good. Still no word on the Yankees' alternate training site, I should note. Anyway, here's the roster:

Let's dig into the roster. First, there are only 58 players. Just about every team left a few spots open -- the Orioles listed only 44 players on their roster -- to retain a little flexibility. Clubs are expected to fill their open spots in the coming days, either with players already in the organization or with players who are signed off the scrap heap after being released by other teams (the Mets signed Gordon Beckham and Melky Cabrera yesterday, for example). Players can be removed from the 60-man roster and replaced with someone else but it is a pain. Non-40-man roster players have to be released (yes, released) and 40-man roster players must go through waivers to be dropped from the 60-man, and if you drop a player from the 60-man, he can't be added back later. Teams don't want to have to deal with all that, so they're keeping a few spots open for the time being. "We wanted to leave ourselves some breathing room, before we had to make some decisions that couldn’t be undone," Phillies GM Matt Klentak said during a conference call yesterday. Second, welcome aboard Matt Duffy and Max McDowell. The Yankees signed both to minor league contracts Sunday. Duffy hit .252/.343/.327 (88 wRC+) with the Rays last year and is a good defender who gives the Yankees middle infield depth. The Rangers released him Sunday and the Yankees picked him up. I briefly wrote about Duffy as a possible target in December and I look forward to him inexplicably hitting .326/.393/.476 this year. McDowell has spent the last few years as a no hit, all glove catcher in the Brewers system. The 26-year-old is just a depth catcher. Third, Domingo German is not on the 58-man roster and the Yankees announced he "remains on the restricted list," which is a pretty good indication he won't get one of the final two spots. If the Yankees activate German when his suspension ends (fourth game of the postseason), they'll have to clear a 60-man spot. Fourth, there are seven players on my 60-man roster projection who did not make the 58-man roster. Here are the seven and the guys who essentially took their spots:

• RHP Roansy Contreras (replaced by RHP Domingo Acevedo)
• RHP Domingo German (RHP Adonis Rosa)
• LHP Trevor Lane (RHP Daniel Alvarez)
• IF Hoy Jun Park (IF Matt Duffy)
• C Wynston Sawyer (C Max McDowell)
• OF Jasson Dominguez and C Austin Wells (two open spots)

I'm a bit surprised the Yankees didn't put Contreras on the roster -- I suppose he could get one of the final two spots -- because he's a good pitching prospect and I didn't think they'd want him spending his age 20 season at home, especially since he'll be Rule 5 Draft eligible this winter. Alvarez over Lane is a pleasant surprise -- I've liked Alvarez ever since I saw him in Spring Training last season and he had a 2.31 ERA (2.74 FIP) in 58.1 Double-A relief innings last year, so it's not like he didn't earn it -- and the Yankees seem to like Rosa. He spent a day on the big league roster last year and threw two mop-up innings, and two years ago they had him throw a simulated game to Aaron Judge when he was coming back from the fractured wrist. Aaron Boone said they picked Rosa for that because they trusted him and his control (they also had the since traded lefty Phil Diehl pitch to Judge). The Yankees seem to like Rosa the same way they liked Brady Lail. McDowell over Sawyer is whatever and Duffy over Park is totally understandable and Axisa approved. Fifth, I am not surprised Dominguez and Wells aren't included on the 60-man roster. I had them on my projected roster but I wasn't confident in it. Wells signed late last week and while a few teams are carrying 2020 draftees on their 60-man roster, they are the exception, not the rule. With six catchers already on the 60-man and the Yankees having to prioritize winning, I don't expect Wells to get one of the last two spots. As for Dominguez, he is insanely talented and the team's top prospect, but he turned only 17 in February and he has zero official professional games under his belt. There are a few teenagers on 60-man rosters around the league, most notably 19-year-old Rays wunderkind Wander Franco, but, like the 2020 draftees, they're the exception, not the rule, and none are as young as The Martian. Omitting Dominguez is understandable. Besides, I doubt workouts at the alternate training site will be televised, so it's not like we're missing out on a chance to see him play. And sixth, there is some 60-day injured list funny business going on around the league. It's probably just something I'm missing with the revised rules rather than a loophole. The Yankees put Luis Severino on the 60-day injured list Sunday even though a) it's supposed to be a 45-day injured list now -- other clubs announced 60-day injured list moves too, including the Red Sox with Chris Sale and the Orioles with Trey Mancini -- and b) they didn't put someone else on the 40-man roster. The 60-day injured list is normally only used to clear a 40-man spot. Put someone on the 60-day injured list and his 40-man roster spot has to go to another player immediately, otherwise the hurt player just stays on the 10-day injured list. The Yankees didn't add anyone to the 40-man to replace Severino (ditto the Red Sox and Sale and the Orioles and Mancini). Not sure what that's about but it's unusual. Maybe it means there's another move coming? It's probably just a revised rule that wasn't made public. Maybe teams had to declare their "out for the season" players now instead of dragging things out and waiting to make the moves when they're actually needed? Dunno. We'll find out eventually. The 58-man roster is mostly as expected. Duffy is a nice little pickup given the middle infield depth chart, I am a bit surprised Contreras didn't make it, and I'm not as surprised Dominguez and Wells didn't make it. And there's still two open spots to fill, though they may not be filled immediately. Once Summer Camp gets underway and Opening Day draws closer, we can put together a projected 30-man Opening Day roster.

2. Six-man rotation? Injuries, particularly pitching injuries, are a major worry throughout baseball as Summer Camp starts up. Pitchers were a month into Spring Training when the shutdown started and now, more than three months later, they'll resume throwing to hitters with intent. Everyone has been throwing during the shutdown, it's not like guys went home and sat on the couch these last three months, but there's no way to simulate the intensity of game action. The concern is guys will do too much, too soon when Summer Camp starts, and get hurt. MLB is giving teams expanded rosters early in the season to protect arms and a few teams, including the Angels and Mariners, have said they plan to use a six-man rotation (others have said they will stick with a five-man rotation, including the Mets). Even with Luis Severino hurt and Domingo German suspended, the Yankees have the depth to run a six-man rotation out there. The rotation depth chart looks something like this:

1. Gerrit Cole
2. James Paxton
3. Masahiro Tanaka
4. J.A. Happ
5. Jordan Montgomery
6. Jonathan Loaisiga, Clarke Schmidt, Deivi Garcia, an opener, etc.

The sixth starter does not necessarily have to be one set pitcher. The Yankees could play it by ear based on availability and matchups. David Hale, Mike King, and Nick Tropeano would all be candidates to pitch behind an opener should the Yankees go that route again. Teams will have a 30-man roster the first two weeks of the regular season and a 28-man roster the next two weeks, so that's a full month with an expanded roster. Using those extra spots to ease the starters back into things and try to keep them healthy only makes sense. The Yankees don't want to overload Cole in Year 1 of a nine-year contract, you know? The downside is a six-man rotation takes starts away from your best starters. Sixty games divided by five starters is 12 starts per pitcher. Sixty games divided by six starters is 10 starts per pitcher. Replacing six Cole, Paxton, and Tanaka starts with six sixth starter starts could be the difference in the AL East race in a short season. Use a six-man rotation for the first month and a five-man rotation for the second month and that's still taking at least one start away from the top guys. The new schedule still isn't out yet -- Bob Nightengale says MLB plans to announce it after everyone goes through their Summer Camp intake testing, so figure about a week -- and maybe scheduled off-days will allow the Yankees to give their starters extra rest early in the season without giving up starts. That would be ideal. If that's not possible, I'm totally cool with a six-man rotation even though it does equal fewer starts for Cole & Co. I think the Yankees have enough quality depth to make it work and they can pick their spots with the sixth starter to optimize the strategy. Use the sixth starter today against the Orioles rather than this weekend against the Rays, that sorta thing. This is going to be a weird season but the injury risk is very real, and I don't want the Yankees pushing Cole too hard or putting Montgomery at risk in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery. The same goes for Happ, Paxton, and Tanaka. They're going to be free agents after the season but you still want to take care of them because a) it's the right thing to do, and b) there's a chance one or all three could return next season. I'm sure Aaron Boone and the Yankees will discuss their rotation plans once Summer Camp begins in earnest. I'm cool with a six-man rotation early on. We are in unprecedented times and I'd rather the Yankees be overly cautious, even as they try for a World Series championship.

3. Garcia's role. I'm curious to see how the Yankees use Deivi Garcia, their top pitching prospect, this season. They temporarily moved him to the bullpen late last year to control his workload and also prepare him for a possible Sept. call-up, though the call-up never came. Garcia reached Triple-A as a 20-year-old last season -- he wasn't very good at the level, pitching to a 5.40 ERA (5.77 FIP) in 40 innings, but simply getting there at such a young age tells us how impressive he was at the lower levels -- and he is on the 40-man roster, so he was going to be included in the available player pool no matter what. Looking at the 58-man roster above though, it is entirely possible Deivi is no higher than tenth on the rotation depth chart:

1. Gerrit Cole
2. James Paxton
3. Masahiro Tanaka
4. J.A. Happ
5. Jordan Montgomery
6. Jonathan Loaisiga
7. Clarke Schmidt
8. opener
9. Mike King
10. Deivi Garcia

The Yankees could even turn to Nick Tropeano or Nick Nelson for spot starts before Garcia. The bullpen depth chart is loaded too. Behind the five core relievers (Zack Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, Tommy Kahnle, Adam Ottavino) there's Luis Cessa and Jonathan Holder, plus veterans like Luis Avilan, David Hale, Tyler Lyons, and Dan Otero. Don't forget Ben Heller either. The Yankees seem to like Heller and he turns 29 in August. It's time to give him an extended look now that he's back from Tommy John surgery. Include Loaisiga in the bullpen mix and that's potentially a dozen names above Garcia on the reliever depth chart. Two things to consider though. One, pitcher availability matters when call-ups are needed. Schmidt and King may be ahead of Garcia on the rotation depth chart, but if they're coming off extended outings at the alternate training site, they might not be available to pitch. And two, Deivi is really freakin' good. More accurately, he has the potentially to be really freakin' good. He struck out 165 in 111.1 minor league innings last year, including 45 in those 40 Triple-A innings, and his new slider gives him two putaway breaking balls. ZiPS projects Garcia as a true talent 27.0% strikeout rate pitcher in the big leagues right now. That plays. The walks (11.1% last year) and fly ball tendencies (41.0% grounders) are a tad worrisome, but Garcia has the ability to out-stuff hitters right now. Given his age (turned 21 last month) and the weirdness of this season, my preference is penciling Deivi in as an alternate site starter. Let him pitch extended outings there and continue his development as best he can in that unusual setting. Triple-A was a grind for him last season and Garcia wasn't good during Grapefruit League play prior to the shutdown (seven runs in 7.1 innings). Upper level hitters have given him problems in limited exposure. There's no shame in not being a finished product at 21 years and one month of age. I'm sure it will be tempting to carry Garcia as a one or two-inning low leverage reliever early in the season, when the Yankees will have a 30-man and later a 28-man roster, but I think they have to look at the big picture here and let Deivi continue his development in the closest thing to a minor league setting. The weirdness of this short season does not make young players more MLB ready. The circumstances may force them on to the big league roster at some point, but it was clear before the season that Garcia needed a little more minor league seasoning, and nothing's changed during the shutdown. I say keep him at the alternate site and let him pitch down there as long as possible. If a need arises and he's the best available option, or he makes significant progress with his command, great, then the Yankees can shift gears and bring Deivi to the Bronx. Otherwise I think it should be the alternate site until further notice.

4. Best and worst 60-game stretches. The 60-game season will invite chaos. The Cubs, Phillies, Rangers, and Red Sox were all in postseason position after 60 games last season and the eventual World Series champion Nationals were 27-33 and six games out of a postseason berth at the 60-game mark. The Marlins lost 105 games but they still managed to go 29-31 during a 60-game stretch at midseason. The Twins won 101 games despite going 31-29 during one 60-game stretch in the middle of the summer. Eno Sarris (subs. req'd) did the research and found 60 games is about when we begin to learn about a team's true talent level. Prior to that, there's a lot of noise. I was curious to see how the Yankees performed during various 60-game stretches the last few years, so I dug up the numbers. I don't think this has any predictive value whatsoever, so consider it for your information and nothing more. Here's how the Yankees performed in 60-game slices since the current core emerged in 2017.

2019

• First 60 games: 38-22 (+71 run differential)
• Last 60 games: 37-23 (+79 run differential)
• Best 60 games: 42-18 (+108 run differential)
• Worst 60 games: 37-23 (+79 run differential)

Look at those extremely consistent 2019 Yankees. The gap between their best and worst 60-game stretches was only five wins, easily the smallest during the last three seasons. They played at a 100-win pace during their worst 60-game stretch, which also happened to be their final 60 games of the season. The Yankees had a sizeable lead in the AL East by that point and didn't necessarily have their foot on the gas the entire 60 games. They prioritized rest and whatnot down the stretch. Last year's Yankees won 42 games during a 60-game stretch 18 different times (with a lot of overlap, obviously) and the +108 run differential was the best of those 18 stretches (May 10th to July 20th). Even with all the injuries, the 2019 Yankees were so, so good. They were never not among the game's best teams.

 2018

• First 60 games: 41-19 (+88 run differential)
• Last 60 games: 34-25 (+49 run differential)
• Best 60 games: 44-16 (+107 run differential)
• Worst 60 games: 32-28 (+28 run differential)

The 2018 Yankees had higher highs but also lower lows than the 2019 Yankees. They started the year exceptionally well -- remember all those "this is the first Yankees team to do [thing] since 1998" factoids? those were fun -- and their best 60-game stretch saw them play at a 119-win pace. They did that from April 13th to June 22nd. As good as the Red Sox were in 2018, the Yankees were tied for first place as late as June 29th. Their worst 60-game stretch saw them play close to .500 (.533 to be exact, or an 86-win pace) from July 13th to Sept. 20th. Even as good as the 2018 Yankees were, they still played close to .500 ball for 60 games. That is the worry this season. A great team having two sluggish months.

 2017

• First 60 games: 37-23 (+115 run differential)
• Last 60 games: 35-25 (+81 run differential)
• Best 60 games: 38-22 (+121 run differential)
• Worst 60 games: 26-34 (+42 run differential)

The 2017 Yankees were a weird team. Extremely fun, but also kinda weird. They went 21-9 in their first 30 games and 21-9 in their last 30 games, and 49-53 in the 102 games in the middle. They went 91-71 overall despite having the run differential (+198) of a 100-win team. The 2017 Yankees managed to exceed expectations but also play below their true talent level. Very weird. Their best 60-game stretch came very early in the season and their worst 60-game stretch was in the middle. Looking through all this, I guess the good news is the Yankees consistently played well in their first 60 games the last three seasons. That is ... relevant? I guess. A rough two weeks to begin the year could sink your entire season in 2020. On the other hand, a great two weeks to start the season gives you a real nice head start during the mad dash.

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Enrique Wilson. Our next random Yankee had as eventful a stint in pinstripes as any utility player in recent memory. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Kenny Lofton, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Juan Miranda, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, DeWayne Wise, and Kerry Wood. Wilson bounced from the Twins to the Indians to the Pirates before joining the Yankees in a June 2001 trade. The Yankees sent Damaso Marte -- World Series hero Damaso Marte -- to Pittsburgh in the deal. Marte was in Double-A at the time and that was long before he established himself as a high-leverage reliever. Wilson, then 27, was an all glove, no bat utility infielder brought in to back up Alfonso Soriano at second, Derek Jeter at short, and Scott Brosius at third. He started only once in the first 48 (!) games after the trade and finished 2001 with a .242/.283/.343 batting line in 108 plate appearances with the Yankees. Wilson went 1-for-4 in the postseason, mostly pinch-hitting in the National League park during the World Series. Losing that World Series saved Wilson's life. According to Buster Olney, Wilson was originally scheduled to fly home to the Dominican Republic after the season on American Airlines Flight 587, which crashed into a Queens neighborhood and killed 265 people on Nov. 12th. He moved his flight up a few days because there was no World Series parade to attend. "I am glad we lost the World Series because it means that I still have a friend," Mariano Rivera told Olney. Wilson opened the 2002 season as the utility infielder, but the club's sketchy outfield situation -- Rondell White and John Vander Wal were ineffective as Paul O'Neill replacements -- forced him to play a little right field. On June 29th, Wilson badly misplayed a ball in right field during a nationally televised blowout loss to the Mets. Tim McCarver said the Yankees needed a right fielder "like Raul Mondesi" during the broadcast, so George Steinbrenner went over Brian Cashman's head and traded for Raul Mondesi two days later. "Our outfield has been depleted, and when Joe (Torre) needs something, I’m going to do everything I can to get it for him," The Boss said at the time. Let's all try to convince Michael Kay to say the Yankees need a center fielder like Mike Trout and hope Hal Steinbrenner is listening, cool? Anyway, Wilson remained with the Yankees another two seasons despite hitting .210/.257/.329 from 2002-04. The Yankees kept Wilson around because he had a specific skill that was very valuable to them at the time: he crushed Pedro Martinez. Wilson went 11-for-25 (.440) with only two strikeouts in his career against Pedro. He faced Martinez nine times in 2003 and the results were comical: double, double, walk, ground out, single, single, single, double, double. The ol' 7-for-8 with four doubles and a walk against the era's most dominant righty. Go figure. Of course, going 7-for-8 against Pedro in 2003 meant Wilson went 4-for-17 (.235) against him all other years, but I digress. Wilson also got Manny Ramirez into some hot water in Sept. 2003. The Yankees were in Boston for a weekend series and Ramirez did not play at all because he was battling the flu, but he and Wilson, his former teammate with the Indians, were spotted out on the town Saturday night. Wilson plead innocent -- "He came to my room and then we went to the lobby and then he left. After he left, I don’t know if he went home. He was sick, he told me that he didn’t want to play because he didn’t feel good," Wilson told George King -- but the Red Sox were miffed. The Yankees let Wilson leave as a free agent following the 2004 season and he spent 2005 with the Cubs and 2006 in Triple-A with the Red Sox, so they couldn't have been too upset about the Manny incident. Wilson hit .216/.261/.332 (54 wRC+) with -3.1 WAR in 264 games and parts of four seasons in pinstripes. By WAR, Wilson is the worst position player in Yankees history:

1. Enrique Wilson: -3.1 WAR
2. Tony Womack: -2.2 WAR
3. Bill Robinson: -2.0 WAR
4. Johnny Sturm: -1.9 WAR
5. Pee Wee Wanninger: -1.9 WAR

To be fair to Wilson, he was at -1.9 WAR per 162 games as a Yankee. Womack was at -3.3 WAR per 162 games (!). Least total value position player in franchise history, crushed Pedro Martinez, led to the Raul Mondesi trade, got Manny Ramirez in hot water, still alive because the Yankees lost the 2001 World Series. Wilson sure did pack a lot into three seasons and change in the Bronx.

UPDATE: Rondell White was a Yankee in 2002, not Devon White. No idea why I had Devon in there initially. My bad.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Ken Rosenthal (subs. req'd) reports MLB and the MLBPA are still working to resolve several contract issues, including vesting options. Rosenthal says MLB wanted to prorate 2021 vesting option salaries over 60 games, which is absurd -- the 2021 season hasn't been shortened! -- but apparently not a sticking point. Adjusting the vesting criteria is the bigger issue. They could prorate it over a 60-game season, though some players have vesting criteria that span multiple years (total games from 2019-20, etc.), which complicates things. J.A. Happ's $17M option vests with 27 starts or 165 innings this year. Prorated over 60 games, it would vest with 10 starts or 61.1 innings. Because pitchers won't be fully stretched out following the three-week Summer Camp, starts is the number to pay attention to with Happ, not innings. Of course, MLB and the MLBPA have to resolve the vesting options issue before we know what what's ... Jonathan Holder will play for free this season, kinda. According to Ron Blum, Holder is one of 11 players whose salary advance earlier this year is greater than his prorated pay. His portion of the advance was $286,500 and his prorated salary is $277,778 (based on a $750,000 full season salary). Holder owes the league $8,772 in salary overpayment, though he won't have to pay. The MLBPA is covering the overage for those 11 players. MLB's final proposal included salary overpayment forgiveness for these players but that went out the window as soon as commissioner Rob Manfred unilaterally scheduled the season. Holder is not playing for free this year. He just won't receive a paycheck during the season. He received his entire salary upfront through the advance ... And finally, I do not expect this to happen, but it would be cool to see a player take the field wearing a mask on Opening Day. A star player would be best but any player would work. "I'm doing this to keep myself and others safe and you should too," is a good message to send. Hope y'all are doing well and staying safe. Go Yankees.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)