July 10th, 2020: LeMahieu, Cessa, Andujar, Rotation, Extra Innings, Frazier, Mailbag

The Yankees still have two open spots on the 60-man roster and you know, CC Sabathia is looking mighty fit these days. He's been hanging around the team in his special advisor role the last few days and there's room in the bullpen for another left-hander. In all seriousness, Sabathia looks great. He's always said he felt most comfortable pitching at a higher weight, and now that he's retired, he's trimmed down considerably. Good for him. Let's get to today's thoughts with Opening Day now less than two weeks away.

1. Cessa and LeMahieu on injured list. Earlier this week the Yankees placed Luis Cessa and DJ LeMahieu on the COVID-19 related injured list. The moves were not announced -- they were posted on the official site, which I'm pretty sure isn't supposed to happen -- because the privacy guidelines in the Collective Bargaining Agreement prevent teams from announcing such moves, even when the player gives the team permission to say they've tested positive (like Cessa and LeMahieu). LeMahieu is asymptomatic and isolating at home in Michigan. "The good thing is he doesn't feel sick, so it's not something that's wiped him out. I do feel good about him being able to pick up in pretty short order once it is time for him to come back,” Aaron Boone said yesterday. Cessa is isolating at his home in Arizona and he told Marly Rivera his "mild" symptoms have subsided. "I feel really good. I'm just here at home, awaiting the negative results of my latest test. It's been a little frustrating not to be out there with my team, so I'm looking forward to rejoining them soon," Cessa said. Glad to hear he's feeling better. Anyway, the Yankees placing Cessa and LeMahieu on the COVID-19 list tells us a few things. One, it all but confirms they won't be available for Opening Day. I suppose there is enough time for them to test negative and receive league approval and all that before the start of the regular season, but Opening Day is less than two weeks away now, and that's probably not enough time to get game ready. LeMahieu is a machine but the hitters have been capital-L Lost during these early intrasquad games. He's going to need time to get his timing back before playing meaningful games. Putting them on the COVID-19 list is as strong an indication the Yankees are not planning to have Cessa and LeMahieu on the Opening Day roster as we'll get. Two, LeMahieu's absence may mean Miguel Andujar is now the primary backup first baseman. The Yankees could easily squeeze Mike Ford on their Opening Day roster -- I didn't have him on my projected 30-man roster, though that doesn't mean anything -- so this might be a non-issue, but Andujar was working out at first base earlier this week (here's video). That's notable because the Yankees backed off him at first base in Spring Training and had him focus mostly on the outfield. Now he's working out at first again. Hmmm. It'll be telling if he plays a game (intrasquad or otherwise) at first base at some point. "To be honest, I feel much more comfortable comparing going back to the time in Tampa Spring Training. I think (the shutdown) has allowed me to have more practice, to get more comfortable with the position out there. Doing a lot of drills and listening to the coaches," Andujar said earlier this week. And three, the moves clear two 40-man roster spots. Like the 60-day injured list, players on the COVID-19 list do not count against the 40-man. I didn't realize that, but Fabian Ardaya mentioned it following a recent Angels waiver claim, and I checked the Operations Manual to confirm, and it's true. The Yankees now have three open spots on the 40-man roster (Luis Severino is on the 60-day injured list) and that's not nothing. I had four non-roster players (Matt Duffy, David Hale, Tyler Lyons, Clarke Schmidt) on my projected 30-man roster earlier this week. Even if the Yankees expect Cessa and LeMahieu back relatively early in the season, there's now 40-man roster space for their replacements. It's that much easier to carry Duffy and either Hale or Lyons (or whoever else) until LeMahieu and Cessa return, or until the roster shrinks from 30 players to 28 players on Aug. 7th. The Yankees have a tight 40-man roster at the moment -- they'll have to clear a spot for Domingo German when his suspension ends even if they don't add him to the active roster -- so every little bit of room helps. It's too bad the 40-man spots opened this way though. Hopefully Cessa and LeMahieu heal up soon and they experience no long-term effects.

2. Exhibition games and the rotation order. The Yankees will indeed play the maximum allowed three exhibition games prior to Opening Day. The team released their exhibition schedule earlier this week. All three games will air on the YES Network:

• Sat., July 18th at Mets (7:10pm ET)
• Sun., July 19th vs. Mets (7:05pm ET)
• Mon. July 20th vs. Phillies (6:05pm ET)

Because this pandemic hellscape isn't bad enough, the Yankees still manage to torment me with a Saturday night game. Grumble grumble. Anyway, Opening Day is Thursday, July 23rd in Washington, so whoever starts the first exhibition game will be lined up to start Opening Day on normal rest. It'll be Gerrit Cole. That's not confirmed yet, but he threw 67 pitches in Tuesday night's intrasquad game, and that lines him up to make one more intrasquad start between now and July 18th with one extra day of rest in there somewhere. I suppose the Yankees could have Cole pitch in an intrasquad game on July 17th and go into the season opener with an extra day of rest, but Cole said he likes to stay on a five-day schedule back in February, so I assume he'll pitch in that July 18th exhibition. Gotta think he wants to face someone other than his own teammates at some point before the regular season. The extra day in the schedule between now and then is as much about having wiggle room in case a workout gets rained out (like today's) as it is keeping him healthy. Masahiro Tanaka's concussion has thrown a wrench into things -- Aaron Boone said Tanaka did a little agility work outside yesterday and that's about it -- because prior to that, the pitching was set up to have Tanaka, James Paxton, and J.A. Happ follow Cole in the regular season in that order. Now the Yankees have to adjust. Here is the recent pitching schedule and how things line up going forward (days rest in parenthesis) (full-size image):

Happ and Clarke Schmidt were announced as the starters for tomorrow's intrasquad game. Everything after that is my speculation. (The Yankees play 16 games in 16 days starting July 25th, so the rotation just rolls along starting with Game 2.) The Yankees are not holding a workout today because of the rain but I have to think Paxton will throw indoors to stay in schedule. Either that or he's hurt and we don't know about it. Likely the former, can't rule out the latter given his history. The Yankees have the option of going Montgomery-Paxton-Happ each with extra rest in Games 2-4 of the regular season, or Paxton and Happ on normal rest in Games 2-3. I would bet the farm on the former. The Yankees like to give their starters extra rest whenever possible and sending everyone but Cole into the season with an extra day seems like a thing they'd do if given the chance. No. 2 starter Jordan Montgomery? No. 2 starter Jordan Montgomery. The wildcard is Tanaka. He's already missed a week of throwing and Opening Day is 13 days away. The best case scenario is probably having him available for July 28th or 29th, the first time the Yankees need a fifth starter, and even then Tanaka would likely be on a limited pitch count because he isn't able to build up right now. As things currently stand, it sure looks like the Yankees will go into the season with Cole, Montgomery, Paxton, and Happ as their top four starters in that order, with Schmidt (or maybe King) the favorite to fill-in for Tanaka. If they're going to rejigger the rotation into a different order, they have to do it pretty darn soon, because there are only 13 days remaining in Summer Camp.

3. Pitchers stretched out. Me the last three months: pitchers won't be stretched out early in the season and we could see piggybacks and bullpen games and stuff like that. Gerrit Cole in his first intrasquad game: 67 pitches and five innings. I have no idea why anyone listens to me. In my defense, Cole is the exception in Summer Camp. The other pitchers didn't throw nearly as much in their recent intrasquad games. Jordan Montgomery got up to 58 pitches in three innings last night, and J.A. Happ, Mike King, and Clarke Schmidt each threw only two innings in their intrasquad outings (30 pitches or so). With time for everyone to pitch at least two more games between now and the regular season, that should be enough to get stretched out to five innings and 75 pitches or so. In that case, perhaps the starters won't be limited all that much when the season begins? Maybe they're not going six or seven right out of the gate, but it could be five innings instead of three or four. That's kinda what I was worried about, three-inning starts every day for a week or two, and that looks unlikely now. Hooray for that. The Yankees and every other team will of course be cautious in the early going simply because this is an unprecedented time and we're all kinda feeling our way through this. Sure seems like the starters are in a good place though. They all threw regularly throughout the shutdown and their focus right now seems to be on command and feel more than stamina and arm strength. The Yankees have eased their starters into things the last few seasons -- they didn't allow a starter to throw 100 pitches until their 21st game last year and their 20th game the year before -- and I imagine they will do the same this year. Looks like the starters will be more stretched out than I expected in the early going though. I'm pleasantly surprised. "Obviously, to start the season, you’re going to have 30 players, so you’re going to have more pitching to choose from. So there may be days in there where you do get a little creative, where it’s a bullpen day, or you try and maximize your roster as best as possible and put guys in positions to where they can really impact the game on a given day," Aaron Boone said earlier this week.

4. Extra-inning strategies. The extra-inning tiebreaker rule is going to create chaos and result in weird (or straight up bad) decisions this season. Introduce something new and baseball people will overthink things. Michael Kay has already made extra-inning bunts a daily talking point during intrasquad broadcasts and managers and some hitters (see: Gardner, Brett) won't be able to help themselves. We'll see small ball tactics even though the tiebreaker rule makes it easier to have a big inning. There are three possible extra-inning scenarios and this is how I would like the Yankees to approach each:

Yankees are the road team

My nightmare scenario is playing for one run in extra innings on the road. With normal extra-inning rules, playing for one run would be fine. Score that run and turn the lead over to Aroldis Chapman or one of those other great bullpen arms. With the tiebreaker rules though, the home team will also get the runner at second to start the bottom of the inning. They're not starting with the bases empty, and that makes protecting the one-run lead that much more difficult. You can't assume one run will be enough. I think you have to play for multiple runs in extra innings as the road team. The Yankees are built to bang and I think they should let their hitters swing away. Tyler Wade is going to lead off the inning? That's fine, just pinch-hit. I had Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier on my projected 30-man roster bench. Mike Ford could easily be there as well. The runner is already in scoring position! No need to give up an out with Wade to get the runner into super duper scoring position. I don't think I'd even pinch-run for the runner at second. Play to score as many runs as you can, because playing for one run on the road when the other team will start the bottom of the inning with a runner on second is way too conservative, even with this bullpen. The Yankees have a great offense. Trust your hitters to get that run home, and give them a chance to break the game open. Don't automatically forfeit an out with a bunt (assuming the bunt is even successful, which is hardly a guarantee.)

Yankees are the home team and trailing

If the Yankees are down one run, it will be tempting to play small ball and pinch-run and bunt the runner over and things like that. Tie the game and worry about winning it later, that sorta thing. I get it, I do, and I don't think it's a terrible idea, but that's not really how the Yankees are built. I think this is another situation where the best strategy is trusting the offense and letting guys swing away, and try to get the runner home from second plus more on top of it. The Yankees have eight guys in their lineup (everyone but Wade, basically, and he will hopefully be replaced by DJ LeMahieu soon enough) who can turn a one-run deficit into a win with one swing when they're given a free baserunner to begin the extra-inning. Give them a chance to do it. I want the Yankees playing to their strengths and, offensively, their strength is swinging the bat and doing damage. And, obviously, if the Yankees are down multiple runs in extra innings, they'd have no choice but to forget about small ball and swing away.

Yankees are the home team and tied

The one scenario in which it's okay to play for one run, because that one run wins the game. You're not trying to score as many runs as possible to give yourself insurance for the next half inning, or score multiple runs to overcome a deficit. One run is all you need. Here are the run expectancy numbers:

• Runner on second with no outs: 61.4% chance of scoring in the inning
• Runner at third with one out: 66.0% (after a bunt)
• Runners at the corners with one out: 62.4% (because the other team will probably intentionally walk the next batter to set up the double play after a bunt)

The thing is, the Yankees are not really built to play small ball. Gardner and Wade can bunt the runner to third, maybe Aaron Hicks and Gio Urshela too, and that's about it. Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Giancarlo Stanton, and Luke Voit aren't bunting. They have zero (0) sac bunts in 8,986 combined big league plate appearances. Stanton bunted once in rookie ball back in 2007 and Voit bunted once in High-A in 2014, and that's it. Judge and Sanchez have never successfully bunted as professionals. It's not something these guys do and asking them to do it against big league pitching would be incredibly dumb. Do you want Gleyber Torres bunting with the winning run at second and no outs? Of course not. Wade and Gardner, and maaaybe Hicks and Urshela, are the only Yankees regulars who should bunt. Because of that, the inning has to come together just right for the Yankees to play small ball. Either the top or bottom of the lineup has to be due up because no one in the middle is bunting that runner to third. If it's the 2-3-4-5 hitters, the best bet is swinging away. That's the best way to score that one run in many cases. My greatest fear is seeing Gleyber square around to bunt in extra innings. No, just no, and I worry it's going to happen because that's Playing The Game The Right Way.

What about the bullpen?

Strikeouts are the single best way to strand that runner at second base in extra innings and the Yankees have several high strikeout relievers in their bullpen. The 2019 numbers and 2020 ZiPS projections for the core relievers:

• Aroldis Chapman: 36.2 K% in 2019 (39.0 K% projected in 2020)
• Tommy Kahnle: 35.5 K% in 2019 (33.6 K% projected in 2020)
• Chad Green: 33.2 K% in 2019 (32.9 K% projected in 2020)
• Adam Ottavino: 31.1 K% in 2019 (32.7 K% projected in 2020)
• Zack Britton: 21.6 K% in 2019 (21.3 K% projected in 2020)

One of these things is not like the others. Britton is a ground ball pitcher -- a great ground ball pitcher, but a ground ball pitcher nonetheless -- and ground balls can move runners over and sneak through the infield for hits. Britton did have a 28.7% strikeout rate in the second half last year, after he started throwing more curveballs, so perhaps that is his new true talent strikeout rate. Would be pretty cool. It's still below the other core relievers. Quite a bit in a few cases. As good as Britton is, the other four relievers are better equipped for the extra-inning rule because they miss more bats and avoid balls in play. For Britton, two weak ground balls to start the inning is generally a good outcome. With the extra-inning rule two weak grounders could equal a run. Britton was the primary eighth inning guy and closer fill-in last year, indicating he's second behind Chapman in the bullpen pecking order. I hope that doesn't mean Aaron Boone will default to Britton as his "first guy out of the bullpen in extra innings" reliever. The higher strikeout relievers give you a better chance to strand the runner at second and they should get the call before Britton in extras.

5. 2021 schedule released. Great moments in optimism: MLB revealed the 162-game 2021 regular season schedule earlier this week. It's the earliest the schedule has ever been released -- it typically comes out in mid-August -- and I'm guessing MLB did this so teams can get a head start on ticket sales and infuse some cash into the organization post-shutdown. Here's the 2021 Yankees schedule (full-size image):

In case you're wondering, MLB couldn't simply transfer the original 2020 schedule over to 2021 because venues are already booked for other events. There are concerts scheduled at Fenway Park all throughout next year already, for example. A new schedule was necessary. Anyway, the Yankees open at home against the Blue Jays on April 1st. All 30 teams will open on the same day next year. There won't be two or three nationally televised games on March 31st or anything like that. MLB stopped doing that a few years ago (but brought it back this year after the shutdown). A few more thoughts on the schedule. One, the Yankees don't play the Red Sox until June 4th, their 58th game of the season, then nearly one out of every five games the rest of the season will be against Boston. The Yankees will play the Rays 13 times, the Blue Jays 12 times, and the Orioles 10 times before they play the Red Sox once. Very weird scheduling. Hopefully Boston bombs out early and those head-to-head games are a walk in the park (doubt it but a man can dream). Two, the Astros Shame Tour begins in earnest on May 4th, when they open a three-game series in the Bronx. The Astros are going to avoid all the sign-stealing ridicule and vitriol this season because a) no fans will be in the stands, and b) people have more important things on their minds. With any luck things will (mostly) be back to normal by next May, and we can all come together as a nation and berate the Astros into oblivion with boos and jeers and mock garbage can bangs. It will be beautiful. Three, the Yankees will play the NL East in interleague play for the first time since ... 2020. Putting the schedule together takes time and I guess MLB didn't want to switch gears and push this year's original interleague matchups back to next year. The Yankees were supposed to play the NL Central this season, which meant Gerrit Cole returning to Pittsburgh and the Cubs visiting Yankee Stadium, among other things. Now that will have to wait until at least 2022. Oh well. On the bright side, the Yankees will make their first ever trip to Truist Park in Atlanta next year (Aug. 23rd and 24th). Their first official trip to Truist Park, I should say. The Braves and Yankees played an exhibition game there (when it was called SunTrust Park) at the end of Spring Training in 2017, before the ballpark officially opened. Greg Bird hit the first ever home run there. (UPDATE: I'm an idiot. I forgot the Yankees are going to Atlanta this season. Disregard that last point, or apply it to this year instead.) Four, the Yankees will also make their first ever trip to the new Globe Life Field in Texas next season (May 17th to 20th). They won't play the Rangers during regional play this year, so we won't get to see the building until 2021. Joey Gallo recently told Jeff Wilson the new stadium is "playing big as hell" during batting practice. Wouldn't it be something if the new park is a pitcher's park after all those years in the bandbox? And five, the Yankees and Mets will play at Citi Field on the 20th anniversary of the Sept. 11th attacks. Hard to believe it's been 20 years, isn't it? I've lived a boring life so I don't have many vivid memories, but I remember exactly where I was, who I was with, and what I was doing that day. Between the anniversary and the pandemic, that's going to be an emotional night. Mike Piazza hit that big home run in the first pro sports game in New York after the attacks (video) and having him throw out the first pitch in the anniversary game is a no-brainer. Not even the Mets could screw that up. "I can't imagine how emotional and how powerful that event could be. Especially after all we have gone through this year, it's something that'll get the magic that it deserves," Aaron Boone said this week.

6. Remembering a random Yankee: Doug Mientkiewicz. Our next random Yankee comes by request and I'm pleased to report I can still spell "Mientkiewicz" without having to look it up. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Kenny Lofton, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Juan Miranda, Bob Ojeda, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, Enrique Wilson, DeWayne Wise, Kerry Wood, and Ed Yarnall. Mientkiewicz was a bit of a late bloomer who did not become a full-time big leaguer until his age 27 season in 2001. He broke in with the Twins and remained with them until being traded to the Red Sox at the 2004 deadline. Mientkiewicz spent 2005 with the Mets and 2006 with the Royals, hitting .263/.342/.409 as a glove first platoon first baseman those two years. Jason Giambi was spending more and more time at designated hitter and the Yankees cycled through several stopgap first base types from 2004-06 (Tony Clark, Andy Phillips, Tino Martinez, etc.), and it was Mientkiewicz's turn in 2007. The Yankees signed him to a one-year deal worth $1.5M that January. "There's not too many first basemen who could save 2-3 runs a game. Defensively, I haven't seen a better defensive player than Doug, so if we pick him up, it would be great," Johnny Damon told the Associated Press. Hitting down in the lineup, Mientkiewicz put up a .154/.241/.288 batting line in April while platooning with Josh Phelps. Didn't take long for fans to begin calling for minor league masher Shelley Duncan. Mientkiewicz had a nice little dead cat bounce in early May, going 12-for-32 (.375) with four doubles and a home run in a 12-game span. It didn't last though, and he went 8-for-38 (.211) in his next 15 games. On June 2nd, with his season batting line sitting at .226/.292/.379, Mientkiewicz was involved in a scary collision with Mike Lowell at Fenway Park. Derek Jeter's throw short-hopped first base and took Mientkiewicz back over the bag, and Lowell ran right into him. Here's the video. Mientkiewicz had to be carted off the field and was later diagnosed with a concussion and a broken wrist. "It was an ugly play to begin with. We got the ground ball, but Robbie (Cano) gave Jeter sort of an unusual handle and he just got rid of it quickly. You could see Dougie sort of backing in to try and get a good hop to catch it and you know Mike ran him over," Joe Torre told Anthony McCarron following the game. Mientkiewicz's injury led to the Yankees calling up Duncan -- Shelley famously hit five home runs in his first six games -- and he did not return until September. Mientkiewicz went 18-for-42 (.429) in the season's final month to push his batting line to .277/.349/.440 (110 wRC+) in 192 plate appearances. A hot streak in early May and a hot streak in September. That's about it. Mientkiewicz started three of the four ALDS games that year but was lifted for a pinch-hitter in all three games. He went 0-for-6 with a walk in the series. Mientkiewicz spent 2008 with the Pirates and 2009 with the Dodgers, then he retired after playing four games in Triple-A with the Marlins in 2010. He got into coaching after that and managed Triple-A Toledo (Tigers) from 2018-19 before being fired after last season. As best I can tell, Mientkiewicz did not catch on with a new team over the winter.

7. Rapid fire thoughts. The Roll Call is one of my favorite traditions and an empty ballpark means we won't get it this year. Good news though: during an intrasquad game earlier this week Yankees outfielders did the Roll Call and everyone acknowledged it. It wasn't audible during the broadcast but reporters at the ballpark said it happened, and the YES Network cameras caught Brett Gardner doing his flex in left field (GIF via Dave Cermola):

I can't imagine the players will do the Roll Call themselves during actual games. They have to focus on the game and it could be seen as disrespectful to the opposing team, and I don't think the Yankees want to do that. Baseball people get mad about the dumbest stuff and I'm certain players doing the Roll Call would generate some takes. Oh well. I'll enjoy the players doing the Roll Call however long it lasts and I look forward to the day it returns in full force at Yankee Stadium ... Clint Frazier has been limited early in Summer Camp because he's dealt with a "little" plantar fasciitis the last few weeks, Aaron Boone said. Speaking from experience, plantar fasciitis absolutely sucks and it can hurt like hell. I had it a few years ago and it took a couple weeks to go away. I am also not a professional athlete with access to that level of medical care and treatment. Frazier has run a little bit -- "(He's) been able to do everything from running and playing the outfield, so we’re just kind of slow-playing him here these first couple of days," Boone said -- but if he can't play the outfield with zero restrictions come Opening Day, it could land Zack Granite or (more likely) Rosell Herrera on the roster seeing how Brian Cashman said it's unclear whether Aaron Hicks, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton will be full-time outfielders at the outset. Clint's foot is something to monitor these next 10 days or so ... Jonathan Loaisiga has arrived at Summer Camp. He was late because of travel problems. Loaisiga got to New York earlier this week and had to go through the intake testing process, and apparently everything checked out okay because he threw a bullpen session Wednesday and is tentatively scheduled to throw two innings in tomorrow's intrasquad game. No one else is missing from Summer Camp as far as I know but we haven't heard much about the guys at the alternate site in Scranton. Loaisiga's going to be asked to get some big outs at some point this season, I suspect. I hope he can use this weird short season to grab a full-time role going forward ... And finally, Zack Britton said the Yankees are "exploring" playing crowd noise in the stadium during games. "It would at least provide some sort of atmosphere," he said. Is there a way to create a homefield advantage with artificial crowd noise? No idea. Playing boos for the opposing team with empty stands would be kinda weird. Eh, whatever. If crowd noise makes the players feel more comfortable and perform better, I'm all for it. 

Mailbag Questions of the Week

John asks (short version): This is Giancarlo Stanton's age 30 season and he has 8 years left on his deal (assuming he doesn't opt out next year and the Yankees opt out of year 9). What are your expectations for where he ends his NYY tenure? Does he spend all 8 years in New York? How many more MVP caliber seasons do you think he has? O/U 225 HR's in pinstripes (about 30 HR average in the next 7 full seasons and one 60 game season)?

I expect Stanton to either finish the contract with the Yankees or finish it as a free agent after being released by the Yankees a la Jacoby Ellsbury and Alex Rodriguez. The pandemic will screw up payrolls for years and even during the Before Times, only a handful of teams could (or were willing to) afford Stanton's contract.

Stanton's $22M annual luxury tax hit is not bad at all. It is tied for the 38th highest luxury tax hit in baseball this season, behind guys like Chris Davis ($23M), Jason Heyward ($23M), and Justin Upton ($22.125M). His actual salary is very different though. Here are Stanton's actual salaries:

• 2021-22: $29M each year
• 2023-25: $32M each year
• 2026: $29M
• 2027: $25M
• 2028: $25M team option with $10M buyout

From 2021-27, Stanton counts as $154M against the luxury tax but will earn $218M in real money. The Marlins are paying $30M of that $218M, so the Yankees are responsible for $188M, which is still a lot for a guy with injury problems on the wrong side of 30. Hard to see another team taking that on post-shutdown without a significant sweetener.

As for on-field production, Stanton has never not been excellent when healthy. Even last season he hit .288/.403/.492 (139 wRC+) around the injuries. Stanton has played in parts of 10 big league seasons and:

He's a career .268/.358/.547 (142 wRC+) hitter. Stanton is still an exit velocity king and his contact rates remain in line with his career averages. He's a force.

Eventually the exit velocity and contact rates will slip. Such is life with an over-30 ballplayer. Similar to Gerrit Cole and CC Sabathia, the Yankees knew there'd likely be pain on the back end of the contract when they traded for Stanton, but he helps them a great deal in the short-term, while their window is open. And he helped them a ton in 2018. He was great.

It all comes down to health. The 225 homers from 2020-27 that John suggested are a bit optimistic even for an elite power hitter like Stanton -- only 64 players have ever hit 225+ home runs after their age-29 season -- and it's hard to be confident in him staying healthy from here on out. The best predictor of future injury is past injury and Stanton's injuries are piling up.

Given his age it's reasonable to believe Stanton has another two or three MVP caliber years in him as long as he stays on the field. He's that productive a hitter. A-Rod averaged 117 games a year from ages 31-37 (2007-13). Would I sign up for Stanton averaging 117 games a year from 2021-27? That's tough, but with his injury history, I think I would.

Adam asks (short version): Cole is a workhorse. He reminds me of CC back in the day. This season is going to be a sprint. Why not lean on Cole the way the Brewers leaned on CC in 2008? Start him every 4 days, and cycle the rest of our pitchers giving them extra rest. CC showed no effects the following year. If we are fighting for a spot in mid-September, we're going to regret taking it slow at the start of the season, right?

Trevor Bauer says he wants to start every four days this season and the Reds might let him. Similar to the Brewers and CC Sabathia, the Reds are trying to return to the postseason and Bauer will be a free agent after the season, so there's no long-term attachment. If he breaks down, he's not their problem. Harsh, but that is absolutely part of the calculus.

Gerrit Cole would not be some other team's problem if he breaks down after starting every four days this season. Give him enough notice and I think he'd able to adjust his training and handle it physically -- Max Scherzer once said it's possible to condition yourself to throw 200 pitches a game but it would be a big schedule adjustment -- but it's a little late in Summer Camp for that.

Cole has never started on short rest in his career and the Astros were hesitant to use him on his throw day in Game 7 of the World Series last year. Might've cost them a title. I think Cole would be able to pitch on short rest here and there, but gosh, asking him to do it all the time is a lot. Sabathia is as big and strong as they come and he's said he was exhausted at the end of the year with the Brewers, both physically and mentally, and he only started on short rest for three weeks. Imagine doing it for two months?

Andrew asks: I became a Yankee fan in 2010. During the lockdown I have been reading a lot about the greatest Yankee moments of all time. I keep seeing Aaron Boone’s home run against the Red Sox in 2003 being ranked in the top 10 or even top 5. What made this moment so special? The Yankees didn’t win the World Series that year and they had been to the World Series in 2001 and even won it in 2000. Save for the hit was against the Red Sox what I am missing? How could it top other great movements, for example, Chris  Chambliss ALCS hit in 1976?

It's a fair question and I honestly don't know how to answer it other than to say you had to be there. The Boone homer is one of my most vivid sports memories. I was in college at the time and that series even had my non-baseball fan friends hooked. The Yankees-Red Sox rivalry peaked during the late 1990s and early 2000s. There seemed to be genuine hatred at the time, largely because Pedro Martinez had that mean streak. It was bitter.

The Boone homer closed out a grueling seven-game series and a grueling Game 7. That was the series with the Pedro-Don Zimmer brawl, and the Yankees had to make that dramatic comeback in Game 7 just to tie it. That series -- that Game 7 -- was a heavyweight fight with each side throwing haymakers. Mariano Rivera in a heap on the mound was all of us after that series (photo via AP):

Boone was not good that series (3-for-17) or that postseason (9-for-53) and the home run was very unexpected. Really came out of nowhere on the first pitch of the inning. When he hit it, I felt as much relief about that grind of a series being over as I did excitement about the Yankees going to the World Series.

The Royals-Yankees rivalry was fierce in the late 1970s. The Yankees beat the Royals in the ALCS in 1976, 1977, and 1978 before the Royals turned the tide and won the 1980 ALCS. Chris Chambliss hit his walk-off homer to win the 1976 ALCS. Could it be it doesn't get the same recognition as the Boone homer because it happened early in that stretch? Would it have felt bigger if it happened in 1978, after the rivalry had a few years to develop? I had not been born yet, so I'm just taking a shot in the dark here.

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