July 14th, 2020: Chapman, Bullpen, Rotation, Sanchez, Happ, Herrera, Frazier

Tigers prospect Riley Greene made a spectacular Endy Chavez-esque catch in left field during yesterday's intrasquad game. Here's the video. I bring this up because look at that joke of a swing. I know C.J. Cron has power but good gravy. Is that one weird batted ball or a sign the rocket ball is coming back in 2020? I think MLB will do everything possible to get people talking about baseball this summer and thus the rocket ball will return. Maybe it will even be even more juiced. We'll see. Now let's get to today's thoughts.

1. Chapman tests positive for COVID-19. Aroldis Chapman, arguably the strongest and most physically fit player on the Yankees, has tested positive for COVID-19, Aaron Boone announced over the weekend. "This virus does not discriminate. It can get to anyone at any point," Boone said. Chapman is experiencing "mild" symptoms and will be away from the team "for the foreseeable future." He tested negative during intake two weeks ago -- he would not have been allowed to join the team otherwise (like Luis Cessa and DJ LeMahieu) -- and Jack Curry says the team learned of the positive test last Thursday. Chapman and Royals catcher Cam Gallagher are the first players to test positive after reporting to Summer Camp. "Was I around him? Should I be worried for myself?" Aaron Hicks said were his first thoughts after hearing the news. The Yankees conducted a contact tracing investigation as required and apparently everyone checked out okay. "We have not had any other positive tests. We adhere to all the contact tracing things. We feel like we’ve handled it and are handling it," Boone said. The nature of the virus and MLB's testing program means a player can take a test Monday morning, get exposed Monday night, get the negative result Tuesday while exposing people all day, take another test Wednesday while still exposing people all day, and then finally get the positive result Thursday. Not great! Among other things Chapman must test negative twice at least 24 hours apart, show no symptoms for at least 72 hours, and be cleared by a league medical panel before he can rejoin the Yankees. Seeing how he has to do all that and then get into game shape -- he did not pitch in an intrasquad game before the positive result -- it's clear Chapman won't be ready for Opening Day and might not return until a few weeks into the regular season. Hopefully he gets healthy soon and has no long-term complications. That's the most important thing. "This is something that even moving forward, a positive test is probably going to come our way. It’s about doing all the things that hopefully as a whole keep us safe and healthy," Boone said. Because MLB insists on playing a season, there's also an on-field component to Chapman's illness to discuss, so let's do that now. 

The bullpen pecking order

Not surprisingly, Boone indicated Zack Britton is the "natural guy" to step in at closer -- "Britton has been an elite closer in this game for a long time," he said -- which would then put Tommy Kahnle and Adam Ottavino in position to share seventh and eighth inning duties in whatever order (Kahnle faces the tough lefties and Ottavino faces the tough righties). Chad Green is then the fourth high-leverage option. Britton will step in at closer but he is not replacing Chapman. It's also incorrect to say Chapman's replacement is whoever gets the final bullpen roster spot in his place, though that's technically true. Really, his replacement is whoever winds up seeing more high-leverage work than he would have otherwise. The guy who covers the innings Green used to get but can't now because he has to cover the innings Kahnle and Ottavino used to get, but can't because they are covering for Britton, who's covering for Chapman. Bullpen chaining, basically. Everyone moves up a peg and at some point along the line there will be someone pressed into high-leverage duty who would not have been there with a healthy Chapman. The Yankees are fortunate that guy, whoever it winds up being, will still be only fifth on their bullpen depth chart. Other teams would be scrambling for a new eighth inning guy after losing their closer. Losing Chapman hurts. Maybe not quite as much as it would hurt another team, but it hurts. The bullpen is the Yankees' greatest strength and they'll be without a key member of that bullpen for who knows how long.

An opportunity for Loaisiga (and Garcia?)

Jonathan Holder seems like the natural candidate to get an opportunity in high-leverage spots while Chapman is out but I think Jonathan Loaisiga will be in the mix too. Johnny Lasagna's stuff passes the eye test and the analytics test, and the Yankees love his demeanor. He has not been especially effective in his limited MLB looks (4.79 ERA and 4.33 FIP) but he doesn't get rattled, and that's not nothing. The Yankees may use Loaisiga as a starter while Masahiro Tanaka is sidelined, though I'd like to see them commit to him as a full-time reliever, and just let him air it out in 1-2 inning bursts. The time has come for him to fulfill his destiny and become Chad Green 2.0. Chapman's injury opens that door. It also may open the door for Deivi Garcia to make the Opening Day roster as a bullpen option. I don't think it's likely -- for what it's worth, Deivi threw with the prospects (Albert Abreu, Nick Nelson, etc.) yesterday afternoon rather than the big league guys -- but Deivi's chances of making the Opening Day roster have improved ever so slightly. He could probably out-stuff big leaguers right now in a one-inning, air-it-out role. Given the veteran bullpen depth on the 58-man roster and the fact he hasn't seen much action in Summer Camp, it seems Garcia is not a serious Opening Day roster consideration right now. Maybe he doesn't make the Opening Day bullpen, but who's to say he won't be the best option come mid-August?

Filling out the bullpen

So far Boone has declined to reveal how many pitchers the Yankees will carry on their 30-man Opening Day roster and it's possible, if not likely, they don't even know yet. It could depend how comfortable they are with the starters and their ability to chew up innings in the early going. Gotta figure at least 15 spots will go to pitchers though, and I'd bet a whole lotta money on the final number being 16-17 pitchers rather than 13-14 pitchers. Let's call it a 16-man pitching staff with an 11-man bullpen for now. We know four bullpen spots (Britton, Green, Kahnle, Ottavino) and can safely assume two others will go to Holder and Loaisiga, leaving five openings. In order of most likely to make the Opening Day bullpen, I'd rank the remaining bullpen candidates like so:

1. LHP Luis Avilan (non-roster) or LHP Tyler Lyons (non-roster)
2. RHP Mike King
3. RHP Ben Heller
4. RHP David Hale (non-roster)
5. RHP Dan Otero (non-roster) or Avilan/Lyons
6. RHP Nick Tropeano
7. RHP Deivi Garcia

I'm assuming Clarke Schmidt will be the No. 5 starter until Tanaka returns. I wouldn't call that a safe assumption but I'm going with it for now. Anyway, Lyons and Avilan are atop the depth chart because the Yankees don't have a middle innings lefty and I just can't see a Major League team carrying 11 relievers with only one lefty (Britton, who's now locked into the ninth inning). Lyons was on the postseason roster last year and Avilan is a veteran guy. I expect at least one to make the Opening Day bullpen. Maybe both! King is making regular intrasquad game starts and that's mostly about having as many rotation options as possible. Even if the Yankees have already decided Schmidt will be their No. 5 starter, they want someone else ready in case there's injury or illness. King is getting stretched out and is already on the 40-man roster, making him an obvious candidate to replace Luis Cessa as the long man. Heller is also on the 40-man roster and he's healthy now. His 29th birthday coming up, it's time to see what he can do. (I forgot Heller was on the ALCS roster last year. He didn't pitch in the series, but he replaced CC Sabathia following his injury.) Don't sleep on Heller getting high-leverage work should Holder and Loaisiga falter. Hale did nice work last year and Otero has been around a while, and, with a healthy Chapman, there may have only been room in the bullpen for one of them. Now there's room for both. Tropeano is currently on the outside looking in and I discussed Garcia either. Tony Zych has been nowhere to be found during intrasquad games, so I assume he's not an Opening Day bullpen candidate. Other 58-man roster pitchers like Abreu, Nelson, Luis Gil, Luis Medina, Alex Vizcaino, and Miguel Yajure are prospects ticketed for the alternate training site in Scranton. Injuries and illness could (and probably will) change things before Opening Day. Right now I have Hale, Heller, King, and two of Avilan, Lyons, and Otero making the Opening Day bullpen alongside Britton, Green, Holder, Kahnle, Loaisiga, and Ottavino.

2. Rotation situation. Last week I laid out the rotation picture and where things possibly stood leading into Opening Day. The weekend provided a little more clarity. For starters, James Paxton did indeed throw indoors Friday despite the rained out workout. He threw 66 pitches in five simulated innings and that keeps him lined up to start either Game 2 of the regular season on normal rest or Game 3 with extra rest. "When I was hurt I had pain going down my left leg, from my glute down to my calf. I don't have that anymore. I'm feeling strong. The next step for me is finding velocity. It will be good to see when I’m in the mid-to-high 90s. That would show me I’m 100% back," he said in a conference call. Secondly, Gerrit Cole will stay on a normal five-day schedule this week, meaning he will start an intrasquad game Friday rather than the first exhibition game Saturday. Cole would then start Opening Day with an extra day of rest but without having faced hitters who aren't his teammates during Summer Camp. Seems weird, but if Cole is cool with it, who am I to argue? He's incredibly prepared and detailed, and if he weren't comfortable with it, he'd say so. "He and I talked a little bit about it. We just value having that sixth day going into his first start of the year. We could have taken it now. Felt like if we took it now he would be rolling into his Opening Day start on the fifth day coming off a time when we may be trying to push him a little bit," Aaron Boone said yesterday. And third, Masahiro Tanaka has resumed playing catch but there is still no firm timetable for him to be cleared to return and get back on a mound. He remains in the league concussion protocol. "We’re moving slowly with Masa. Making sure he’s able to play catch a couple of times now. He’s responded well to an elevated heart rate on the bike and elliptical and with his arm care work. Anytime we’re talking about a concussion, we make sure we’re moving slowly and smartly. There’s no plan in place exactly when exactly things are gonna happen, but he is at least responding how we’d hoped," Boone said. With Opening Day only nine days away, it's a near certainty Tanaka will begin the season on the injured list. Based on all that, we can now plot out the pitching schedule a little more clearly than last week (days rest in parenthesis) (full-size image):

Jordan Montgomery will start tomorrow's intrasquad game, Paxton will start Wednesday's, and Cole will start Friday's. That was all announced. J.A. Happ lines up for Thursday and everything else is just me speculating and piecing things together. Gotta say though, all those (5)s the first few days of the regular season lead me to believe I'm on the right track. Cole, Montgomery, Paxton, and Happ in that order in the first four regular season games, each with an extra day of rest, absolutely passes the sniff test. The fifth starter, be it Clarke Schmidt or Mike King or an opener or whoever, starting July 28th gives Cole an extra day and allows him to start the home opener. Does starting the home opener even matter when the stands will be empty? Are they still going to do baseline introductions and all that? I guess the home opener is still a memorable game and getting the start is an honor. Mostly though, the fifth starter on July 28th allows the Yankees to give Cole extra rest, something they won't be able to do (without jumping through hoops) for another two weeks after that. We don't know what exactly the Yankees will do with the fifth starter's spot during Tanaka's absence, but the other four guys are lined up to start the regular season each with an extra day of rest. It's all clearly laid out now.

3. Sanchez's workload. The Yankees will play 60 games in 67 days when the season begins next Thursday (!) and is it crazy to think Gary Sanchez could start 50 of those 60 games at catcher? It probably is, yeah. That's a 135-start pace across a 162-game season. Sanchez has started as many as nine consecutive games at catcher in his career but consecutive games doesn't matter. Consecutive days does, and only twice in the last three years has Sanchez started behind the plate five consecutive days: Sept. 22nd to 26th in 2018 and June 17th to 21st in 2019. That 2018 stretch comes with some caveats. One, it came after the Yankees clinched a postseason berth but before they clinched homefield advantage in the Wild Card Game, so Gary was in there a lot to help them clinch. And two, Sanchez missed about six weeks with a groin injury in the second half and the Yankees played him a ton in September -- he started 21 of the team's final 27 games at catcher plus two more at DH -- to help him get on track before October. It took some special circumstances for him to play that much. The Yankees routinely allow Sanchez to catch four consecutive days -- there were 13 instances of him starting four straight days at catcher from 2017-19 -- but five consecutive days seems to be pushing it. Austin Romine unofficially served as the personal catcher for a few pitchers (most notably Sonny Gray) in recent years, cutting into Gary's playing time, but four straight days is about his limit. Or the limit the Yankees have set for him, anyway. The Yankees have seven off-days this year but one is the day after Opening Day, and on two occasions they have two off-days in the same week (Aug. 10th and 13th, and Aug. 24th and 27th). Because of that the Yankees will play separate stretches of 16 games in 16 days, 13 games in 13 days, and 10 games in 10 days (twice). That's the downside of the schedule as far as the catcher's workload goes. The upside is MLB went heavy on prime time games, so only nine times will the Yankees play a day game after a night game, and two of the nine are followed by an off-day. The Yankees could start Sanchez in those two games knowing he'll get the guaranteed rest the next day. Sit Gary those other seven day games after a night game and this is what we get:

• Starting no more than four straight days: 49 starts
• Starting no more than five straight days: 50 starts

That's the absolute best case scenario in which the Yankees follow the plan to a T and there are no rainouts or health issues. That last part is important. MLB is attempting to navigate a pandemic and Sanchez has had more than his fair share of injuries the last three seasons (five injured list stints from 2017-19). He can only catch as much as his body allows him to catch. "As far as the amount of games I am going to play, I am not sure. I can tell you that anytime my name is in the lineup, I am going to be ready to play. They will make a decision and see how many games I can catch behind the plate, but if my name is in the lineup, I will be ready to play," Sanchez said during a conference call last week. The Yankees have the advantage behind the plate just about every game Sanchez starts. He leads all catchers in home runs (by 11!) and is fifth in WAR the last three years despite all the missed time, and only Yasmani Grandal has a higher wRC+ (by two points). Sanchez is an impact catcher and the more he plays, the more games the Yankees will win. He's a young man (27) and he's in his physical prime, and the shutdown means he has roughly three fewer months of wear and tear on his body right now (not that he didn't catch during the shutdown). If there were ever a season to push Gary hard and really ride him behind the plate, this is it. Hopefully he stays healthy and can start 40-45 games. I'll be happy with that. Anything more than 45 starts is gravy. "He could be the best catcher in the sport. He’s that talented. He’s had some unfortunate nagging injuries that have come up a little bit the last two years that have altered his season a little bit. He’s still amassed a lot of home runs and at-bats and stuff over the last two years. But he’s missed some time, killed some momentum at times. For a young player -- and I think for Gary, who burst onto the scene, who was a highly touted prospect, came up and took the league by storm -- I think sometimes what people forget is catcher is such a demanding position. You don’t often see very young catchers come up and become a central figure on a team," Aaron Boone said during a recent online event per Brendan Kuty.

4. Happ's vesting option. Ken Rosenthal reports MLB and the MLBPA have agreed to revised 2021 vesting options rules. Options will vest at their full salary and their criteria in 2020 will be prorated for a 60-game season. Some players have criteria that span multiple years but only the 2020 portion will be prorated. J.A. Happ's contract includes a $17M option that vests with 27 starts or 165 innings this year. Prorated, that comes down to 10 starts or 61.1 innings. It's not that simple though. Joel Sherman reports Happ falls into a special subset of players whose vesting option may be reworked. From Sherman:

But the March agreement between MLB and the players association has a list of players (which includes Happ) with special covenants who would need to have provisions — in Happ’s case his vesting option — renegotiated or have the issue go to arbitration. The expectation, therefore, is the Yankees and Happ will either finalize different thresholds at which the option vests and/or lower the value of the option, or else an arbitrator will rule on what to do. 

I have to think this will be wrapped up relatively soon seeing how the season starts next week. Revising vesting criteria after the season begins and the player has already started accumulating stats complicates everything and helps no one. We may not hear about this right away, but I'd bet on either the Yankees and Happ working something out before Opening Day, or agreeing to send it to an arbitrator. The former is much more preferable. Even before the pandemic wrecked team financials, $17M for 38-year-old Happ in 2021 was not going to be an easy pill to swallow. He showed basically everything you don't want to see in an aging pitcher last season (declining velocity, reduced spin, more hard contact, an arm issue, etc.) and when Tanner Roark and Rick Porcello get $10M to $12M a year, Happ isn't worth $17M. That is now especially true after the pandemic. Even with a 2018 Happ season (3.65 ERA And 3.98 FIP) in 2020, does he get even $10M per year in a depressed free agent market this offseason? He definitely wouldn't get $17M. I know that much. The Yankees have over $110M tied up in only six players in 2021, and their arbitration class is massive. And they'll have to re-sign or replace DJ LeMahieu, James Paxton, Masahiro Tanaka, and maybe Zack Britton (and Happ). That $17M can be better spent elsewhere, including on Happ at a lower salary plus other players. A 60-game season with a five-man rotation is only 12 starts each, so the 10-start vesting threshold is tight. One minor little injury (or an illness) can derail that quickly. My guess is the Yankees push for a lower 2021 salary and Happ pushes for lower vesting criteria. Maybe a $10M option that vests with eight starts or 48 innings? Dunno, just spitballing. Happ's vesting option is still a lingering issue, though MLB and the MLBPA reaching their agreement paves the way for the Yankees and Happ to sit down and figure this out. 

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Jim Bruske. Our next random Yankee was going to receive a ring no matter which team won the 1998 World Series. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Kenny Lofton, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Doug Mientkiewicz, Juan Miranda, Bob Ojeda, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, Enrique Wilson, DeWayne Wise, Kerry Wood, and Ed Yarnall. Bruske was the sixth overall pick in the 1986 draft but he did not reach the big leagues until 1995, his age 30 season. Drafted as an outfielder, Bruske hit .245/.340/.327 in the Indians system from 1986-89 before transitioning to the mound. He had immediate success as a pitcher (3.28 ERA in 118 Double-A innings in 1990) but Cleveland never gave him an opportunity, and Bruske spun his wheels as an up-and-down Triple-A depth arm for a few seasons. Minor league free agency and waivers took him from the Indians to the Astros to the Dodgers to the Padres and back to the Dodgers from 1992-98. Bruske had some success with Los Angeles in 1998, throwing 44 innings with a 3.48 ERA. The Dodgers were out of the race, so they sent him to the first place Padres at the trade deadline. Bruske appeared in four games with San Diego, allowing four runs (three earned) in seven innings, then the Padres flipped him to the Yankees. The Yankees were looking for an extra righty reliever because Jeff Nelson was nursing a back injury and they initially tried to reacquire Brian Boehringer from the Padres. The two sides couldn't agree to a deal, so the Yankees settled on Bruske.. On Aug. 23rd, the Yankees sent two prospects, including disappointing 1995 first round pick Shea Morenz, to San Diego for the 33-year-old Bruske and a minor leaguer. Bruske went to Triple-A Columbus for a week before joining the Yankees as a Sept. call-up. He appeared in three games as a Yankee:

• Sept. 5th at White Sox: 1 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 2 HR
• Sept. 22nd vs. Indians: 3 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 0 K
• Sept. 27th vs. Devil Rays: 5 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

Andy Pettitte got hammered on Sept. 5th (five runs in two innings) and Bruske was part of the parade of relievers to mop things up. The Sept. 22nd game was a blowout win in the first game of a doubleheader, so Bruske soaked up some innings. The Sept. 27th game was the final game of the regular season. The Yankees had their rotation all lined up for October and Bruske threw a season high 71 pitches in the spot start. It was his only MLB start. Because Nelson got healthy, Bruske did not make the postseason roster and was sent to Tampa to stay ready in case he was needed, and that's where he watched his current team beat his former team in the World Series. "I suppose I rooted for the Yankees, but if I'm going to be 100% honest, I really didn't care which team won," Bruske told Jeff Pearlman in 2010. He was the last player to play for both pennant winners in the same season until Bengie Molina did it with the 2010 Giants and Rangers. "I'm not so into baseball history, but I figured it was pretty rare," he told Pearlman about playing for the two World Series teams in 1998. The Yankees released Bruske in Spring Training 1999 and he didn't play that year, but he briefly returned to the big leagues with the Brewers in 2000. He spent 2001 in Triple-A with the Angels and Dodgers, then called it a career. Bruske retired with a 4.13 ERA in 144 MLB innings spread across four teams and five seasons. These days he's in the real estate business in Arizona. The Yankees invited Bruske to the 20th anniversary celebration of the 1998 team two years ago and he was part of the on-field festivities.

6. Rapid fire thoughts. Utility man Rosell Herrera, who had a nice 25 at-bat run in Spring Training, is battling a heel injury and is "physically unable to go right now," according to Aaron Boone. Tough break for Herrera, who could have cracked the expanded Opening Day roster had he continued to play well in Summer Camp. It's unclear how long he'll be out, but this creates a clearer path for Thairo Estrada or Mike Ford to make the roster ... The Padres released Brian Dozier over the weekend -- they did not include him on their prospect heavy 60-man roster -- and the Yankees should probably give him a call to see whether he's interested in playing this year. Dozier punished lefties last season (.280/.375/.525 and 128 wRC+) and the Yankees were thin on the middle infield even before DJ LeMahieu tested positive for COVID-19. If they can get him cheap -- Dozier's minor league deal with San Diego would have paid him $2M on the big league roster, or a little more than $740,000 prorated -- it's probably worth bringing him in as an emergency option. One more injury (or illness) and the Yankees are looking at some combination of Estrada, Matt Duffy, and Tyler Wade on the middle infield ... PNC Field in Scranton will be ready as the alternate training site "sometime in the next week," Boone said over the weekend. The park had to be brought up to the COVID-19 protocols and Conor Foley says they also had to cram in several previously scheduled high school graduations. The young prospects on the 58-man roster (Albert Abreu, Nick Nelson, etc.) have been working out early in the morning at Yankee Stadium with the big league roster candidates coming in later in the day. Soon the extra players will head to Scranton and have their own facility. All the workouts at the alternate will be closed to the public, so we're not going to get much information on what's happening there (who's throwing what day, etc.). Bummer ... The Yankees practiced a five-man infield over the weekend -- the "Zack Britton package," as Boone calls it -- and I really hope we see at some point during the season. Boone said he especially likes it when he can have Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks as the two outfielders. That would mean Aaron Judge on the infield (he's a righty thrower), or the Yankees could make a substitution and put either Wade or Miguel Andujar on the five-man infield, then shift them to the outfield. I guess it depends on the situation. Five-man infields are weird and I am pro-weird. I hope we see it at some point (and it works) ... And finally, props to Clint Frazier for wearing a mask during workouts and intrasquad games. A few others around the league have done the same, most notably Mike Trout and Fernando Tatis Jr., but Frazier is the only Yankee who currently wears a mask on the field during baseball activities (screen grab via YES Network):

“I'm just trying to show that it's easy to do and it's the right thing to do. If it helps a little bit, it's not hard to do, so I'm going to try to do it as much as I can. Hopefully someone sees it and maybe they do it too," Clint said over the weekend, adding "I want to make sure that I'm not the reason why it spreads to anybody." I was already hoping Frazier would make the Opening Day roster for several reasons. This is another one.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)