July 17th, 2020: Intrasquad Games, 30-Man Roster, Green, 2020 Draft, Paxton, Mailbag

The regular season is less than a week away and once teams begin traveling, the league's COVID-19 protocols will really be put to the test. "We got four months to go out and win a championship. We want everybody on the field. You can spit and chew sunflower seeds and go to a restaurant once this is all over with," Aaron Judge said two weeks ago. It only takes one person doing something they shouldn't do for this to all go sideways. I'm hoping for the best. Let's get to today's thoughts as Alex Rodriguez's utter inability to feel shame continues to serve him well.

1. Misc. intrasquad game thoughts. After about 10 days worth of intrasquad games, the Yankees will play the first of three Summer Camp exhibition games tomorrow night. They'll take on the Mets at Citi Field (7pm ET on YES and SNY). The intrasquad games have been fun in their own way but I'm ready for something resembling an actual baseball game with the Yankees playing the Not Yankees. I honestly can't tell you who has performed well (or poorly) during the intrasquad games. No stats are kept and it's so informal that it's tough to keep track of who's doing what. Anyway, I have some intrasquad observations, so let's get to 'em. One, the hitters are starting to come around. The hitters were way behind the pitchers last week. It wasn't just the Yankees either. Jordan Bastian notes Cubs hitters struck out 26 times in 48 plate appearances during a recent intrasquad game. It's much easier for pitchers to stay game ready during a shutdown than it is hitters. A pitcher only needs a mound to get his work in. A hitter needs to see Major League quality pitching and that is in short supply. The hitters have started to sting the ball a little bit the last few days though. Fewer empty swings and rolled over grounders, and more line drives to the outfield. Some dingers too. I think offense will be down the first week or so of the regular season as hitters catch up, and because the Yankees have such a deep lineup (even without DJ LeMahieu), that gives them an advantage, in theory. The more good hitters in the lineup, the better your chances enough guys will do enough damage to win. Two, Gio Urshela played a little second base the other day. Urshela said he's willing to play anywhere over the winter and Aaron Boone hinted at moving him around in Spring Training, but it never happened during Grapefruit League play. It was third base only. LeMahieu is out now though, and if Urshela can play second -- he has 59.2 career innings at second between MLB and the minors -- the Yankees could then put Miguel Andujar at third. Even with his defensive issues, Andujar at third and Urshela at second is preferable to Urshela at third and Tyler Wade at second with Andujar on the bench. I hope the Yankees give Gio a longer look at second base the next few days and aren't afraid to play him there during the regular season, even if only for a few innings. I think he'd be perfectly competent there and that's all I need until LeMahieu returns. Competence. Three, the Yankees practiced the extra-inning tiebreaker rule earlier this week -- everyone has seen a runner at second with no outs before, but might as well practice it while you can -- and yes, they did work on bunting. They had Mike Tauchman try to bunt the runner to third and he popped it up. Twice. They let him try it twice and he couldn't get the bunt down either time. Tauchman is one of the few guys on the roster I am cool with laying down a bunt in that situation and that was not an inspired attempt. Hopefully it convinces the Yankees to just swing away in extras. Also, they used Wade as the runner at second base, indicating they may use him to pinch-run in extras. The Yankees shouldn't pinch-run for just anyone -- I'd hesitate to take Aaron Judge or Gleyber Torres out of a tight game --  but there are times pinch-running will make sense, and you want Wade to be ready for it. "That’s one of the most exhilarating feelings, when everyone knows you’re going and you steal. So, I’m extremely comfortable. I love that. That stuff fires me up," he told Brendan Kuty last month. (Wade stole third after Tauchman couldn't get the bunt down.) Fourth, player usage in Spring Training can be telling and I think the same is true with Summer Camp. Wade has (mostly) been in the lineup and on the field defensively with the big league players while Thairo Estrada has been with the B-Team, and Wade was also the runner at second during the extra-inning drill. That tells me the Yankees are leaning toward Wade over Estrada while LeMahieu is out, not that I thought they would go the other way. This just confirms that suspicion. Also, Mike King and Clarke Schmidt facing the MLB lineup is no coincidence. The Yankees want to test them and get as much of a read on them as possible. Sending them out there against the big leaguers in an intrasquad game is about the best they can do right now.

2. Updated 30-man roster projection. A few things have changed since our first 30-man roster projection last week. Here's the recap of the latest developments:

• Aroldis Chapman tested positive for COVID-19.
• Masahiro Tanaka all but ruled out being on the Opening Day roster. 
• Luis Cessa and DJ LeMahieu will rejoin the Yankees in the coming days.
• Aaron Judge (rib, neck) has returned to intrasquad games.
• Clint Frazier (foot) has resumed playing the outfield.
• Rosell Herrera (heel) is hurt and unable to play.
• RHP Domingo Acevedo, RHP Daniel Alvarez, RHP Luis Gil, C Max McDowell, RHP Luis Medina, RHP Luis Gil, RHP Adonis Rosa, and RHP Alex Vizcaino were assigned to the alternate training site in Scranton yesterday, the Yankees announced.

The alternate site assignments are as expected. Those players weren't serious Opening Day roster candidates. Tanaka threw a 30-pitch bullpen session yesterday, his first time getting up on a mound, though the Yankees plan to take things slow. Aaron Boone said it was an encouraging first step and added Tanaka will throw another bullpen Sunday, and if that goes well, he'll face hitters sometime next week. That tells us he's starting the season on the injured list. "I am not sure (when I will return), but obviously the injury is at the head. It is something I need to be cautious about. Kind of take it careful moreso than other injuries. As of now it’s a step-by-step process," Tanaka said on a conference call earlier this week. As for Cessa and LeMahieu, they are in New York and are expected to join the team in the coming days. The Yankees are not committing to an exact return date, however. "You would have to make the evaluations where they are at, what exactly have they been doing, what have they been able to do, and have a plan for what they would need from a buildup standpoint ... When you see them in uniform, then we'll be ready to talk about (when they'll be in the lineup)," Boone said yesterday. Can't expect them to be on the Opening Day roster at this point. Not enough time to get game ready between now and then. All of the above doesn't change the roster projection all that much. Chapman has to be replaced on the active roster and Herrera on the taxi squad, otherwise the new information only reinforces the assumptions I made when I put together the first projected roster (i.e. Cessa, LeMahieu, and Tanaka being unavailable on Opening Day). Here's my latest projected 30-man Opening Day roster (changes are in yellow):

Chapman and Herrera move to the injured/sick player group and Avilan replaces Chapman in the bullpen. That bullpen spot essentially comes down to Avilan or Otero, and with an 11-man bullpen, there's room for two middle innings lefties. The Yankees will play 14 of their first 17 games against the Nationals (Adam Eaton, Juan Soto), Phillies (Jay Bruce, Didi Gregorius, Bryce Harper), Red Sox (Andrew Benintendi, Rafael Devers, Mitch Moreland), and Rays (Ji-Man Choi, Brandon Lowe, Austin Meadows, Yoshitomo Tsutsugo). Even with Kahnle serving as a right-on-left specialist, carrying a second middle innings lefty the first 17 games makes more sense than carrying a ninth righty. I think Avilan gets the nod over Otero. I have Estrada on the bench now, and I moved Duffy from the bench to the taxi squad (replacing Herrera). That's because LeMahieu is on the way back and will rejoin the Yankees relatively soon. I don't think they want to jump through all the 40-man roster hoops -- they'd have to clear a spot for Duffy, and because he has 5+ years of service time, he can refuse a minor league assignment and elect free agency with full pay when they try to send him down -- to carry Duffy for what might be a short period of time. Depth will be important in this weird, short season, and I don't think the Yankees want to risk losing Duffy so early. Estrada gets the bench spot until LeMahieu returns. I have Schmidt as the fifth starter at the moment but I think that's 50-50 at best with Tanaka on the mend. The Yankees could use an opener for the fifth starter's spot the first turn through the rotation and then plug Tanaka in next time around. The expanded roster makes it easy. As much as I'd like to see Schmidt, I couldn't blame the Yankees for not putting him on the roster for what might only be one start. (No Schmidt would create room on the roster for Otero.) There are four non-roster players on my projected roster (Avilan, Hale, Lyons, Schmidt) and the Yankees currently have three open 40-man spots (Cessa and LeMahieu on the COVID-19 list and Severino on the 60-day injured list). They'll open a fourth when they put Chapman on the COVID-19 list. Nice and easy. That is my updated take on the 30-man Opening Day roster. The roster has to be submitted to MLB sometime next Thursday but we should know it a few days sooner just because the Yankees will continue sending guys to the alternate site in Scranton. (Don't sweat the taxi squad spots too much. Iannetta has gotten a ton of run in intrasquad games, much more than Erik Kratz, and he's a 14-year veteran. That makes him the favorite to be the third catcher. Otherwise Tropeano could swapped out with Garcia or Kriske or whoever is available to pitch. Ford could take Duffy's spot. The taxi squad is for road trips only and the Yankees will select the three players based on their roster needs at the time.)

3. Green's new curveball. Spring Training was approximately 400 years ago, so you'll have to forgive me for forgetting Chad Green is working on a new pitch. Pitching coach Matt Blake has him working on a curveball. Green started toying with it over the winter and kept at it during Spring Training. He threw a handful during Grapefruit League play and it seemed to be going well enough, and he continued working on it during the shutdown. Green broke out the curveball again during an intrasquad game earlier this week (he may have thrown it in previous intrasquad games too, but who can tell with the behind the plate camera angle?) (GIF via Lucas A):

"That goes back to the offseason -- the first offseason -- just talking with (Blake). Just want to get something with more depth on it. Something to change a hitter's eye level. That's something I worked on in the first offseason. Was trying to get more comfortable with it in Spring Training, and then over this quarantine period was able to get just a lot of reps with it. It ended up being a good thing. Right now it feels good. I'm just going to be continuing to get the shape I want, the speed I want, and just to get as many reps with it as possible," Green said during a conference call earlier this week. The curveball is an entirely new pitch. Green has been a slider guy since college. He's toyed with changeups and splitters at various points over the years, even a cutter, but never a curveball. At least not until now. The goal is obvious: find a reliable second pitch, something Green has lacked throughout his career despite his success (2.82 ERA and 2.66 FIP from 2017-19). "I think it's no secret that I tend to be one-dimensional at times, just not having a secondary pitch that I trust too much. It's just being more comfortable, being more versatile, getting some easier outs, not having to grind through every inning, every at-bat. That's kinda the plan moving forward," he added. Green has a great fastball -- his heater ranks near the top of the league in velocity and spin rate, and given the overmatched swings his fastball can generate, I reckon there's also a deception component we can't measure -- and he throws it a ton, particularly up in the zone. Curveballs are a great complement to elevated fastballs -- former Rays analyst and current Twins analyst Josh Kalk first wrote about this in 2009 -- because both pitches leave the pitcher's hand on the same plane, then one dives down while the other stays true. I'll let Stephen Strasburg demonstrate (GIF via Rob Friedman):

The old baseball adage is anyone can learn a slider but you have to be born with a curveball. Either you have the laxity in your wrist or you don't. I have no idea whether that's actually true, but it's a thing baseball people have been saying as long as I can remember. In this era of high speed cameras and data driven pitch design, learning (and teaching) a curveball may be much easier than it was back in the day. The early returns on Green's curveball -- and that's all we have right now, early returns -- are promising. We still have to see what happens when he takes it into games (against opposing teams) and uses is consistently. As good as Green has been, he's always felt to me like a guy whose days as a successful reliever are numbered. At some point the fastball heavy approach will stop being effective because he'll be too predictable and/or his stuff will begin to slip (he's predictable now, so it seems the quality of his stuff will determine how long he remains great). I thought the clock struck midnight early last year, but Green went to Triple-A, make a few adjustments, then came back as his old self (2.64 ERA and 2.50 FIP after being recalled). Credit to him. The curveball is his latest attempt to find a reliable secondary pitch and prolong his success. Maybe it can take him to another level. Would be cool. Green is already so good though that just maintaining his current level another few years would be a positive development. "Definitely way more comfortable (with it now) than when I first started throwing it. Completely new grip. Something that I'd never had messed with in the past. Like I said, just getting as many reps in as I can. Game reps really, because I can throw as much as I want in the bullpen or on flat ground or stuff like that, but until I throw it in a game against hitters, that's when I can really get some good feedback on it," Green said.

4. 2020 draft signings. The Yankees have signed their three 2020 draft picks. First rounder Austin Wells signed a few weeks ago and earlier this week third rounder Trevor Hauver and fourth rounder Beck Way signed as well. (The Yankees forfeited their second and fifth round picks to sign Gerrit Cole.) Here are photos of the Hauver and Way signings and here's the bonus information according to multiple reports:

• C Austin Wells: $2.5M bonus ($2,493,400 slot for 26th overall pick)
• 2B Trevor Hauver: $587,400 bonus ($587,400 slot for 99th overall pick)
• RHP Beck Way: $600,000 bonus ($438,700 slot for 129th overall pick)

Per the March agreement players will receive only $100,000 upfront, with the rest of their bonus paid in two equal installments on July 1st, 2021 and July 1st, 2022. Wells has $1.2M coming to him the next two July 1s. Hauver has two $243,700 installments coming and Way has two $250,000 installments on the way. You'd rather have the money now because of the time value of money and all that, but hey, it must be nice knowing you have that cash coming to you down the road. The Yankees spent $3,687,400 on their three picks this year. They had a $3,520,000 bonus pool, so they exceeded their pool by 4.76%. They didn't exceed their pool more than 5%, meaning they won't have to surrender next year's first round pick (no team has done that during the bonus pool era), but they will have to pay $125,550 in tax (75% on the overage). Total draft payout is $3,812,950 this year. Last year it was $9,151,025. The Yankees have consistently spent right up to the 5% penalty level over the years -- they cut it extremely close at 4.96% last year -- and I'm happy to see they did it again this year even with the shutdown wreaking havoc on revenue. There was speculation some teams would go dirt cheap in the draft to save money amid the shutdown and maybe even punt picks entirely (and take the compensation pick next year), but thankfully that has not happened. There were no hugely underslot deals in the first round and, as of this writing, only 10 of the 160 picks remain unsigned. Everyone is expected to sign before the Aug. 1st deadline. Teams going super cheap or punting picks to next year would have been a real bad look for baseball. Common sense prevailed. The Yankees have their three picks under contract, and now we wait until next season, when they can (hopefully) begin their careers during a proper minor league season. (Here's what I wrote about Wells, Hauver, and Way after the draft.)

5. Remembering a random Yankee: Mark Bellhorn. Our next random Yankee is one of eight 2004 Red Sox players who later wore pinstripes. We've already covered Juan Acevedo, Dean Anna, Erick Almonte, Oscar Azocar, Colter Bean, Jim Bruske, Billy Butler, Cesar Cabral, Brandon Claussen, Colin Curtis, Robert Eenhoorn, Kevin Elster, Sal Fasano, Greg Golson, Nick Green, Aaron Guiel, Eric Hinske, Rick Honeycutt, Brandon Knight, Kenny Lofton, Matt Luke, Melky Mesa, Doug Mientkiewicz, Juan Miranda, Bob Ojeda, Blake Parker, Chris Parmelee, Edwar Ramirez, Mark Reynolds, Humberto Sanchez, Zelous Wheeler, Enrique Wilson, DeWayne Wise, Kerry Wood, and Ed Yarnall. Bellhorn bounced from the Athletics to the Cubs to the Rockies before joining the Red Sox in 2004 -- he hit .258/.374/.512 with 27 home runs for the Cubbies in 2002 -- and he stepped in at second base for the injured Pokey Reese and Nomar Garciaparra to hit .264/.373/.444 during that 2004 season. Bellhorn broke up Mike Mussina's perfect game bid with a one-out double in the seventh inning of ALCS Game 1, then hit what proved to be the game-winning three-run homer against Jon Lieber in Game 6. Sigh. A thumb issue hampered Bellhorn throughout 2005 and the Red Sox released him on Aug. 15th with his batting line sitting at .216/.328/.360. The Yankees were seeking a utility infielder upgrade over Felix Escalona and swooped in to sign Bellhorn away from the A's prior to the Aug. 31st postseason roster eligibility deadline. "The interest here was more. I wanted to come to a team where I was wanted. (Playing for the Red Sox) didn’t affect my choice. It was unfortunate what happened, but I turn the page. There are no hard feelings. Whatever it takes to beat them, it would be nice," he told George King. The Yankees and Red Sox were fighting for the AL East title right to Game 162 in 2005 -- they finished the season with identical 95-67 records, but the Yankees won the season series and thus the division title while Boston had to settle for the wildcard spot (in the pre-Wild Card Game days) -- so Bellhorn didn't play a whole lot. The Yankees kept running Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, and Alex Rodriguez out there. Bellhorn was on the active roster for 31 games and he started only three times, with six other relief appearances off the bench. On Sept. 4th, he went 1-for-3 with a solo homer and two walks, one of which forced in a run, in a win in Oakland. The home run gave the Yankees a 2-0 lead and the run-scoring walk made it a 7-2 lead. I'd link to video of the home run if I could find it. Search "Mark Bellhorn home run" on YouTube and all you get is 2004 postseason results. ANYWAY, that was Bellhorn's one good game as a Yankee. He went 2-for-17 (.118) with three walks in pinstripes, and his lone postseason appearance came when he pinch-ran for Jason Giambi down two runs in the ninth inning of ALDS Game 5. The Yankees let Bellhorn go after the season and he spent 2006 with the Padres, 2007 with the Reds, 2008 in Double-A with the Dodgers, and 2009 in Triple-A with Rockies. He finished his MLB career as a .230/.341/.394 (96 wRC+) hitter in just under 2,500 plate appearances. (The eight 2004 Red Sox to later play for the Yankees: Bellhorn, Johnny Damon, Alan Embree, Derek Lowe, Doug Mientkiewicz, Mike Myers, Kevin Youkilis, and Ramiro Mendoza. Mendoza left the Yankees to sign with Boston in 2003, then briefly returned to the Yankees in 2005.)

6. Rapid fire thoughts. My recent rotation projection was wrong. Earlier this week Aaron Boone announced James Paxton, not Jordan Montgomery, will start Game 2 of the regular season. He'll be on normal rest. I thought they'd line everyone up to make their first regular season start with an extra day but nope. Gerrit Cole with an extra day on Opening Day, Paxton on normal rest in Game 2, then presumably either J.A. Happ on normal rest or Montgomery with two extra days in Game 3 ... Paxton and the Yankees have not yet discussed an extension, he confirmed earlier this week. No surprise here. Paxton is a Scott Boras client and Boras usually doesn't do extensions, plus there are so many extenuating circumstances this year. Back surgery in February, the shutdown, etc. If Paxton goes to the Yankees and says he's willing to take a sweetheart deal, I'm sure they'd pounce. Otherwise there are reasons for both sides to wait ... And finally, the Yankees will indeed play artificial crown noise over the Yankee Stadium speakers this season, reports George King. Caleb Noe says it'll be crowd noise from the MLB: The Show video game series -- soccer leagues in Europe are using video game crowd noise and the NBA may do the same -- and MLB will provide each team with a soundtrack. The Mets tried it out earlier this week. Here's video. Much better than I expected! It's not going to sound natural (duh) but I guess it's better than nothing. Personally, I think I'd prefer the ambient sound of an empty ballpark, but I suspect I'm in the minority.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Brad asks: Who are some buy low/low cost candidates that intrigue you this offseason? The Yankees have had interest in Quintana in the past. Samardzija? Profar?

I don't see him leaving the Dodgers but I'd love Justin Turner on a one-year deal. He's still a big time hitter (.290/.372/.509 and 132 wRC+ last year) who doesn't strike out much and has thrived on a team with huge expectations. He'll turn 36 in November, so there's age-related risk, but as a corner infield/DH option, sign me the hell up.

The pitching market is pretty thin -- there's a chance James Paxton emerges as the best available starter between now and November -- and Jose Quintana is as good a buy low candidate as anyone. Some rough BABIP (.326) and strand rate (65.9%) luck led to an inflated ERA (4.68) last season, but everything else was in line with his career norms.

Quintana, now 31, seems like a candidate for a pitch mix adjustment given his declining fastball velocity and spin. He throws a sinker, so maybe it's time to emphasize that? Dunno. A few other impending free agents who caught my eye as buy low targets:

• RHP Corey Kluber: Bad and hurt last year, won't have a full season to prove he's all the way back. One-year deal for a guy with his pedigree is never a bad idea, even at age 35.
• UTIL Jurickson Profar: Hasn't hit consistently and he developed the yips last year, but he plays everywhere and is still only 28. It's talent worth betting on.
• RHP Garrett Richards: Returned from Tommy John surgery late last year and the stuff has always been A+. Would love him as a No. 4-5 starter roll of the dice.
• 2B Kolten Wong: Good on base guy, some lefty pop, great glove at second base. My hunch is he's too good to be considered a buy low candidate.

I don't know what to expect this free agent period and I don't think anyone does, really. The short season will make players tough to evaluate and we don't truly know how much teams are hurting financially from the shutdown. I expect the worst, but a merely slow free agency similar to the 2017-18 and 2018-19 offseasons wouldn't surprise me.

Pete asks: How will pitching stats be handled with the new extra inning tie breaker rules?  Does the pitcher get charged with an earned run if the “inherited” runner scores?

Officially, the runner at second is said to have reached on an error, but no fielder will be charged with an error. Fielding percentages won't change and the runner won't get an OBP boost. Also, if that runner scores, it goes into the books as an unearned run, so the pitcher's ERA will be unchanged. The runner is just ... there. No one gets dinged.

The pitcher will be responsible for everything that happens after the automatic runner. If he gives up a three singles and two runs in the inning, the first run (the automatic runner) is unearned but the second run (reached on a single) is earned, and counts against his ERA. I believe the hitter who drives in the automatic runner gets an RBI and the automatic runner gets credit for a run scored, but don't quote me on that. 

Paul asks: I know there's no all star game this year but will there still be all star voting? Easy way to promote the game, right? 

MLB introduced the All-MLB Team last year. The best player at each position, basically, with a first and second team. It's announced after the season and there's one All-MLB Team for the entire sport. It's not split into AL and NL like the other awards. There's a fan voting component to the All-MLB Team and I imagine that will continue this year. MLB will probably (should definitely) make a bigger deal out of that this year. Promote the hell out of it and get fans involved.

(Send your questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)