August 14th, 2020: Infield Defense, Bullpen, Trade Targets, Happ, Tanaka, Mailbag

I have a confession: I kinda dig the extra innings tiebreaker rule. The Yankees haven't played an extra innings game yet, but I've seen it in action elsewhere around the league, and I like the chaos. I don't miss marathon extra innings games -- they're more fun as a concept than in reality -- and teams haven't gone overboard with bunts (yet). Not ready to say the rule should become permanent but I don't hate it as much as I thought I would. Anyway, let's get to today's thoughts as Estevan Florial cranks a 470-foot homer at the alternate site.

1. Sloppy infield play. Infield defense has been an issue three weeks into the season and the most annoying part is the Yankees have the talent to be so much better. It does not get more OMGWTF than this (GIF link):

All three infielders are culpable there. DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres miscommunicated -- they did it later in the game too -- and Gio Urshela, I have no idea he was doing. Once you see there's no one at the bag to make the pivot and turn the double play, throw to first to get the sure out. What a weird, annoying play. "That’s one where we’ve gotta communicate better. I think GT kind of flinched at the ball to his right, and then there was some confusion over who was covering second," Aaron Boone told Lindsey Alder (subs. req'd) following the game. The infield has a -4 DRS and a -0.8 UZR. Given the small sample size and inherent nature of defensive stats, I think these numbers better tell the story:

• BABIP on all ground balls: .240 (MLB average: .218)
• BABIP with no shift: .255 (MLB average: .302)
• BABIP with the shift: .275 (MLB average: .271)

The shift/no shift data includes all balls in play, not just grounders or low line drives hit to an infielder, so the data is a bit flawed. BABIP on ground balls is very straightforward though. How many ground balls are being turned into outs? The answer is considerably fewer than the average defense. It's not good. It's not good and it should be better. LeMahieu is a Gold Glove caliber defender but even he's made some clumsy mistakes, like this throw to no one in particular. Gleyber is the biggest offender, however. It's not just the miscommunication the other night and it's not just the four errors. It's the adventurous throws (like this one) and bobbles (like this one) that still go for outs but are dangerous misplays. Torres looks much more apprehensive at short this season than he did early last season, while Didi Gregorius was on the injured list. I think there are three possible explanations (in no particular order):

1. He's just not a good shortstop.
2. He's taking his offensive struggles out onto the field.
3. He's putting too much pressure on himself now that he's the undisputed shortstop.

It could be any or all three and there's no sense in pretending we know the answer with any certainty. I don't think it's No. 1 -- Gleyber's footwork can be messy at times but he has the athleticism and range for short, and his arm is plenty strong -- but the whole has been less than the sum of the defensive tools. A young player letting his offensive slump affect his defense is hardly unheard of. Is Torres putting too much pressure on himself now that Sir Didi is no longer around as a safety net? Eh, it's possible, but I don't think that's it. Torres has handled pressure pretty well in his career. He came up with a lot of fanfare and was thrust into a postseason race, and thrived. If he can handle that, I'm sure he can handle being the starting shortstop (is this really any different than being the starting second baseman when the safety net is Neil Walker?). I don't know what's going on with Gleyber's defense early this year but I hope he rights the ship soon. He's too good to be this sloppy, and it's not like the Yankees have an alternative (no thanks to Tyler Wade as an everyday player). There are times you have to let a young player sink or swim, you can't always baby them, and Torres is at that point at shortstop. Keep running him out there until it is abundantly clear he can't handle it. I don't think we're at that point yet where we can say he can't handle it -- if you're not going to give a young player a chance to improve, then what's even the point of it all? -- but we are closer to it than I thought we would be at any point this season. "I know he’s a little frustrated with (his defense) but I feel like overall, while he’s kinda finding his way offensively right now, the defense has been strong," Boone told Adler. 

2. Middle relief headaches. At some point someone other than Zack Britton, Chad Green, and Adam Ottavino will have to get outs in a reasonably close game. I looked at their recent workloads in Tuesday's post and it's worth updating because all three guys pitched in both games of the Braves series:

The Yankees led Tuesday's game 8-0 after five innings and 9-4 after seven innings, and Wednesday's game 6-2 after six innings, and Aaron Boone still had to go to his top relievers to secure the win. Luis Avilan, Luis Cessa, David Hale, and Jonathan Holder all entered the game with at least a four-run lead and were unable to complete their inning against Atlanta. Jonathan Loaisiga has been really good early in his outings and not so good late ...

• First 25 pitches: .167/.286/.222 with 33.3 K%
• Pitches 26+: .300/.391/.650 with 26.1 K%

... and while it's too early to say he can't be an effective 35-40 pitch reliever, he hasn't been one to date, and that's created some headaches. Boone has tried to stay away from his top relievers the last week or so but the middle relievers wouldn't allow it, and it's hard to spread the high-leverage workload around with no Tommy Kahnle and no Aroldis Chapman. It's times like this I appreciate even more what Adam Warren did for the Yankees. He was never higher than fourth or fifth on the bullpen depth chart and yet he regularly turned big leads into stress-free wins and would hold his own when pressed into high-leverage situations. Chapman should return soon -- he either threw his second simulated game yesterday or will throw it today, and if that goes well, Boone said he could rejoin the team "any time after that" -- and that'll certainly help. Avilan, Hale, and Holder have combined for a 2.41 ERA but that's a bit deceptive because a) they've put 28 runners on base in 18.2 innings, b) they've allowed three of the nine runners they inherited to score, and c) their fellow relievers have stranded six of the seven runners they inherited from them. That has to change. Either they have to perform better or they have to be replaced. The high-leverage guys are stretched thin as it is because Chapman and Kahnle are out, and having to bail out the middle innings guys on a near daily basis isn't helping matters. Hopefully Loaisiga can settle into a defined middle relief role once Masahiro Tanaka is full stretched out and J.A. Happ either rights the ship or is replaced. Right now, getting the ball from the starter to Green and Ottavino in the late innings is a bit of an adventure.

3. Starting pitching trade targets. The rotation has started to come around the last week or so -- Gerrit Cole, James Paxton, and Jordan Montgomery were all really good in their most recent start only to have to ruined late by the long ball -- but I still believe the Yankees should get another starter at the trade deadline. Paxton's velocity is down a scary amount -- when's the last time a guy came out missing close to 4 mph and regained it within two months? -- and J.A. Happ can't be trusted. It's probably too late to get an accurate read on Clarke Schmidt before the deadline at this point (not that another two starts would've made a huge difference) and one injury or illness would create pitching problems in a short postseason series. I'd rather the Yankees have too much pitching (no such thing) than not enough (like last year), so yeah, go get a starter at the deadline. Which pitchers will be available? Tough to say. More teams than usual are in the race thanks to the expanded postseason -- the Pirates and Red Sox (!) are the only teams at least three games out of a postseason spot currently -- and that ostensibly equals fewer sellers. My hope is a fringe contender or two fades out of the race the next few weeks and more arms become available. Ideally the Yankees would add a starter who is under control beyond this year because a) it would stink to have the season shut down for COVID-19 reasons in September after giving up prospects for a rental, and b) Cole and Montgomery are the only locks for next year's rotation due to impending free agency (Paxton and Masahiro Tanaka) and injury (Luis Severino isn't expected back until midseason). As things stand right now, with the trade deadline 17 days away, these look to be the best available starters.

LHP Matt Boyd & RHP Michael Fulmer, Tigers

Fun fact: Detroit has the sixth best record in the American League at 9-7. If the season ended today they'd be the No. 5 seed and play the Rays in the Wild Card Round. See what I mean about hoping fringe contenders fall out of the race? I can't tell whether Boyd is even good at this point. For all the strikeouts last year (30.2%), he had a 4.56 ERA (4.32 FIP) with a 1.89 HR/9. This year he's sitting on a 10.24 ERA (6.13 FIP) with 2.33 HR/9 but only 18.8% strikeouts. Is Boyd good? He has the potential to be good, I think, but he's not actually good at this very moment. The Astros made a run at Boyd at the deadline last year and a smart team going after him is a good indication folks in baseball think there's a way to unlock him. A high-strikeout lefty who is under team control through 2022 would be a fine pickup, in theory. Boyd's also a dude who needs to be fixed and I'm not sure that's the best target a month before the postseason. Fulmer's had one bad start (four runs in 2.2 innings) and one good start (three scoreless innings) this year while being held to a pitch limit in his return from Tommy John surgery. He dropped a bunch of weight during rehab -- Fulmer became a father recently and apparently that has him taking his career more seriously -- and his stuff has looked good in limited action. It's worth noting Fulmer has been four-seamer/slider heavy this year after being sinker/slider in the past. That's a more modern pitch mix and might suit him better. Fulmer is under team control next season and the Tigers missed their opportunity to trade him for a big package. That doesn't mean he'll come cheap though. GM Al Avila is notoriously unreasonable during trade talks -- they wanted Gleyber Torres for Boyd last year -- and a deal simply may not be possible. I've always liked Fulmer and I'm curious to see how the new slimmed down, four-seamer/slider version works out. There's always risk and uncertainty with a guy fresh off Tommy John surgery, but I think there's a potential impact pitcher in there. Boyd? Eh. Ehhhh. Squint your eyes and there's upside there, sure. I also worry he's a guy who doesn't actually ever get "fixed" and instead just has stretches of competence a la Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Pineda, and leaves you wanting more. I'm mentioning Boyd and Fulmer here almost out of obligation. Will the in the race Tigers trade them? Will Avila be realistic during trade talks? To be determined. (My trade proposal sucks: Fulmer for Albert Abreu, Thairo Estrada, and Luis Gil) 

RHP Carlos Carrasco, Indians

Cleveland's offense has been shockingly bad this season -- they're hitting .195/.303/.293 (68 wRC+) as a team and averaging 3.26 runs per game -- yet they have their heads above water at 10-9 because the rotation has been so good. Their starters rank first with 2.39 ERA, fourth with a 3.50 FIP, and first with a 24.4 K-BB%. Would the Indians really subtract from that strength, especially with Mike Clevinger and Zach Plesac taking themselves out of commission with their selfishness? Common sense says no but consider:

• They traded Trevor Bauer in the middle of a postseason race last year.
• Their outfield is a mess (their outfielders are hitting .148/.271/.210).
• Carrasco is owed $12M each of the next two seasons ($11.75M luxury tax hit).
• Carrasco will gain 10-and-5 no-trade protection next April.

Money is always tight in Cleveland and I imagine it'll be even tighter following the shutdown, and Carrasco at that salary might be too much for a club with enviable rotation depth (Logan Allen, Scott Moss, etc.) and glaring weaknesses on the position player side. Also, the trade deadline and this offseason will be their last opportunities to move him before his 10-and-5 rights kick in and he controls where he goes. Carrasco turned 33 in March and he's still very good (3.22 ERA and 4.32 FIP with 32.3% strikeouts early this year), and I don't worry about him in a high pressure environment like New York. He's an A+ clubhouse guy and I reckon beating blood cancer last year makes any adversity he experiences on the field feel like a walk in the park. (Besides, we've already seen Carrasco dominate in Yankee Stadium in the postseason.) Clint Frazier is the obvious trade chip but, if the Indians aren't interested in a reunion, what about Mike Tauchman? He's good and he's cheap, which will appeal to Cleveland, and the Yankees should not balk at giving up their fourth outfielder to get a rotation upgrade. Building a Carrasco package around Tauchman seems too good to be true, but who knows? Point is, I can see Carrasco being available no matter where the Indians are in the standings. They can replace him internally, they need all sorts of help on the position player side, he's relatively expensive, and his 10-and-5 rights are right around the corner. The Indians trading Carrasco this summer like they traded Bauer last summer is a distinct possibility. (My trade proposal sucks: Carrasco for Thairo Estrada, Mike Tauchman, and Alex Vizcaino)

RHP Alex Cobb, Orioles

The O's would be in the postseason if the season ended today. They're 10-7 and would play the Yankees as the No. 7 seed in the Wild Card Round. I know it's a short 60-game season and all, but if you're curious how ridiculously small the current sample is, it's still "Jose Iglesias has a .953 OPS" small. Hip and knee surgeries limited Cobb, 32, to three ineffective starts last season (16 runs in 12.1 innings), and he would have began this year on the injured list had the season started on time in March. The shutdown gave him time to get healthy and here he is with a 2.75 ERA through four starts. The peripherals (4.66 FIP) are not good, but even at his peak Cobb was a consistent FIP-beater who got weak contact more than missed bats. He's sitting 92-94 mph this year and his trademark splitter is dropping like it did before he had Tommy John surgery in 2015:

Give O's GM Mike Elias a truth serum and I bet he'd tell you he's disappointed his team is in the postseason race. He wants to continue tearing things down and rebuilding. No matter where they are in the standings, I expect the Orioles to actively shop their veterans. Cobb is owed $15M next season and that's a problem. Four good starts isn't enough to overlook years of injuries and poor performance. Baltimore would have to eat money to facilitate a trade. The Os have gone quantity over quality with their recent trades (Zack Britton, Dylan Bundy, Manny Machado, etc.) which may soften the blow. As good as he's looked in the early going, I don't love Cobb, but there's a legit chance he'll be the best starter who is actually available at the deadline. (My trade proposal sucks: Cobb, Mychal Givens, and $7M for Albert Abreu, Luis Gil, Yoendrys Gomez, Brandon Lockridge)

RHP Lance Lynn & LHP Mike Minor, Rangers

I put Lynn and Minor on my list of possible trade targets last weekend and, since then, the Rangers have gone 5-1 and moved into postseason position. Goes to show how quickly things can change with the expanded postseason. Lynn tweaked his pitch mix last year -- he threw more four-seamers and cutters and fewer sinkers -- and was marvelous (3.67 ERA and 3.13 FIP in 208.1 innings). He's doing it again this year (1.16 ERA and 3.15 FIP and even fewer sinkers). Lynn is signed through next season and because his contract is front-loaded, his luxury tax hit ($10M) is higher than his actual salary ($8M). That said, the fact he is signed next year leads me to believe he won't be available. The Rangers opened a new ballpark this season and they want to win. Trading Lynn runs counter to that. Minor, on the other hand, will be a free agent after the season. The 5.49 ERA is unsightly -- he's been on a pitch limit all year because the Rangers say he's dealing with arm fatigue -- but everything else is right where it was last year. Strikeouts, walks, grounders, spin rates, weak contact, etc. Minor does all the things the Yankees want in their pitchers. If they stay in the race, I assume the Rangers will keep Minor and go for it, especially with Corey Kluber done for the season. If they fall out of the race, Minor would probably be the first pitcher I'd ask about. (My trade proposal sucks: Minor for Mike Ford and Mike King in an all-Mikes trade)

LHP Robbie Ray, Diamondbacks

The most attainable starter other than Cobb, I think. The D'Backs have been really bad this season -- they are 8-11 and FanGraphs says their postseason odds have slipped from 46.7% before the season to 27.9% today -- and Ray himself has been dreadful: 10.59 ERA (8.15 FIP) with his lowest full season strikeout rate (26.4%) and his highest walk rate ever (16.1%). He adopted the increasingly popular chicken wing arm action a la Lucas Giolito and Joe Kelly (and Brooks Kriske) this year (GIF via Rob Friedman) ...

... and it's been a disaster. Ray will be a free agent this winter and, between his performance and the financial impact of the shutdown, it's hard to see Arizona making him the qualifying offer. Unless they turn things around in a hurry, my guess is the D'Backs will take whatever they can get for Ray at the Aug. 31st deadline. Last year the D'Backs wanted Clint Frazier and Clarke Schmidt for Ray. They won't get anything close to that now. I like the idea of getting Ray for close to nothing, telling him to go back to his old mechanics, and finding out what happens. If he pitches well, great. If not, put him in the bullpen for a month. I like that idea. I also would not want Ray to be the only pitcher the Yankees add at the deadline. He fits better as a secondary pickup, like Jaime Garcia to Sonny Gray in 2017. (My trade proposal sucks: Ray for Albert Abreu)

RHP Taijuan Walker, Mariners

In his first full season back from Tommy John surgery, Walker has had two terrible starts (nine runs in seven innings combined) and two great starts (one unearned run in 13 innings combined), so the 4.05 ERA (4.17 FIP) doesn't really tell the whole story. His velocity is back where it was pre-elbow reconstruction (93-95 mph) and Seattle has him throwing fewer four-seamers and more sinkers, sliders, and splitters. Prior to elbow surgery Walker was throwing roughly 60% four-seamers. Now it's 38%. That's a big change. If you believe the contact management is sustainable (88.6 mph average exit velocity and 30.8% hard-hit rate) and can overlook the abysmal 6.4% swing-and-miss rate, Walker would be a decent roll of the dice, especially since he is still only 27 and could conceivably get better as he gets further away from Tommy John surgery. Then again, he is rental, and you're talking about adding him for two months max, so he won't be that much further away from Tommy John surgery when the World Series ends. The Mariners are really bad (surprise!) and my hunch is they'll try to re-sign Walker rather than trade him. They'd be foolish not to at least listen though. (My trade proposal sucks: Walker for Albert Abreu)

4. Alternate site additions. The Yankees currently have 57 players in their 60-man player pool. They started out with 58, then Dan Otero went on the restricted list and dropped it to 57, then the Yankees signed Fernando Abad and bumped it back up to 58, and then Chris Iannetta retired to get it back to 57. The Yankees have three open spots in Scranton and I wonder how they'll use them, if they'll use them at all. I hope they do, otherwise it's a wasted opportunity, right? There are three roster spots worth of at-bats and innings available that are going to waste. There are two types of players the Yankees can add to the 60-man player pool:

1. Prospects who need development but won't help the MLB team.
2. Players with a chance to help the MLB team in some capacity this year.

In recent days several teams have added prospects to their 60-man player pool and sent them to the alternate site, including the Giants (2019 first rounder Hunter Bishop), Orioles (2019 second rounder Gunnar Henderson), Rangers (2018 first rounder Cole Winn), and Royals (2020 first rounder Asa Lacy). Non-40-man roster players assigned to the alternate site have to be released to be removed from the player pool, so just about every team kept a few spots open for flexibility. They didn't want to load up their player pool on Opening Day and paint themselves into a corner. Now that the season is three weeks old and teams have a clearer picture of their roster and a better understanding of this weird season, they're starting to fill those last few 60-man roster spots. The Yankees probably need another catcher to replace Iannetta -- Josh Thole and Max McDowell are carrying the load at the alternate site -- but those other two spots? I dunno. The Yankees should prioritize the MLB roster, so maybe that means a potential bullpen option like lefty Trevor Lane or a free agent signing (Brian Johnson was released recently, but meh)? On the prospect front, the highest ranked prospects in the system not at the alternate site are Jasson Dominguez, Roansy Contreras, Everson Pereira, Kevin Alcantara, and Anthony Volpe. Four teenagers and a 20-year-old. Dominguez is playing games in the Dominican Republic (video), so it's not like he's sitting around. Adding Contreras would make sense. I thought he would be included in the original 60-man player pool and he could use the innings. Is it worth bringing 2020 first rounder Austin Wells to the alternate site? Wouldn't be a bad idea to give him a taste of pro ball, plus he'd be another catcher to help share the workload behind the plate during intrasquad games. I'm not really sure where I'm going with this. The Yankees have three open spots at the alternate site and I've seen teams adding prospects to their player pool the last few days, and it got me thinking. The trade deadline is only 17 days away and the Yankees may not want to tie up any 60-man player pool spots -- because only players on the 60-man roster can be traded, I suppose the Yankees could entice a trade partner by using those open spots to add a prospect to the player pool and trading him immediately rather than making the other team wait until after the season for a player to be named later -- so perhaps they'll fill the vacant spots in September, and give a few players a month of baseball action.

UPDATE: The Yankees lost Nick Tropeano on waivers to the Pirates a few days ago. Forgot about that. So they have 56 players in the 60-man player pool now, not 57. My bad.

5. Rapid fire thoughts. The Yankees (smartly) used their two off-days this week to skip J.A. Happ's start and I wonder what it means for his vesting option. As far as we know, the two sides have not reached a resolution, and I can't imagine Happ would be happy losing out on a start and innings with that still lingering. Maybe they resolved it or maybe they agreed to take it to arbitration. Otherwise this seems like a potentially uncomfortable situation. Then again, Happ has eight walks and three homers against only three strikeouts this season, so maybe pitch better if you don't want your start skipped? ... Two weeks ago I noted Masahiro Tanaka threw a ton of fastballs in his first start. Thirty fastballs among 51 pitches, or more fastballs than he threw in 19 of his 31 starts last season. It has not lasted though. In his last two starts Tanaka threw 37 fastballs combined, and his pitch usage rates were back to his pre-2020 norm:

I'm going to keep an eye on this because the Yankees have a new pitching coach and three starts doesn't tell us a whole lot, though it's entirely possible that first fastball heavy outing was a function of the matchup seeing how the Red Sox have been a terrible fastball hitting team this season (.338 xwOBA vs. fastballs is fourth worst in baseball). Gonna keep an eye on this, but my hunch is we're gonna see the same old Tanaka going forward ... Kiley McDaniel reports MLB has created an information sharing system for alternate sites. Teams can opt into the program -- it's optional became some facilities have less tech than others -- and get access to video and Trackman data from other teams. Scouts are not allowed into the alternate site, so they're falling behind with their coverage on other teams. This will close the gap a bit. It shouldn't have taken this long but props to MLB for a sensible program. I'm certain the data-obsessed Yankees have opted in ... And finally, Bill Shaikin reports MLB is looking into a bubble(s) for the postseason. I suggested they do so not too long ago, so yeah, I'm down with it. You don't want to have to shut down and isolate an entire team in the middle of the postseason like the Cardinals and Marlins had to be shut down earlier this month, and you want to reduce the chances a team loses a key player in the middle of October, like Juan Soto testing positive on Opening Day. Disrupting a cash grab regular season is no big deal. If you want to crown a champion though, you have to go above and beyond to ensure competitive integrity in October. A bubble won't be easy but it is the best chance at an uninterrupted postseason. I hope MLB and the MLBPA can make it work.

Mailbag Questions of the Week

Kevin asks: Was randomly checking out the list of four-decade players on Baseball Reference and saw that we officially had no players play from the 90s into the 2020s. It looks like no one from the aughts is going to make it to 2030 either. Bumgarner would have to play until his age 40 season to pull it off. Maybe Elvis Andrus at 41? Who do you think will be the next player to achieve this? Most likely have to start your career late in a decade to pull it off. Perhaps Soto or Tatis Jr.?

I've been an obsessive Baseball Reference user for more than a decade now and I'm still finding pages and tools I never knew existed. I had no idea that four-decade players page was a thing. Pretty cool. Unless Bartolo Colon makes a comeback (nah), Adrian Beltre was the last active player to have played in the 1990s.

Madison Bumgarner is starting to break down and Andrus just isn't any good, so I don't see either making it to 2030. Clayton Kershaw will be 42 in 2030 and while it's unlikely he hangs around that long, I wouldn't rule it out. Lefties have nine lives in this game and I could see Kershaw carving out a nice second phase to his career as a reliever.

Juan Soto is the best candidate to make it to the 2040s and I don't think it's close. He's been historically great. Look where Soto ranked among 20-and-under players before turning 21 last October (min. 500 plate appearances):

• AVG: .286 (25th all-time)
• OBP: .403 (5th)
• SLG: .535 (6th)
• OPS+: 140 (9th)
• HR: 56 (2nd)
• BB: 187 (1st)

The eight players with a higher OPS+ through age 20: Ty Cobb, Jimmie Foxx, Rogers Horsby, Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott, Frank Robinson, Mike Trout, and Ted Williams. When you do what Soto has done at such a young age, you don't just go on to have a long career, you go to the inner circle of the Hall of Fame. He's been unreal.

Soto's game is built around so-called old player skills (OBP and SLG) and that will help him stay around, especially with the National League likely to adopt the DH soon. Ronald Acuna and Fernando Tatis Jr. are incredible -- Tatis is the most exciting player in the game right now -- but they derive a lot of value with their legs, and speed-based skills typically don't age as gracefully.

Teams are eschewing old players these days but a) the old players who stick around are guys like Nelson Cruz (similar skill set to Soto), and b) a lot -- a lot -- can and will change the next 20 years. Who's to say veteran players won't be all the rage come 2040? I think Soto has the best chance to be the next four-decade player. There's also a decent chance we never see another four-decade player again.

Michael asks: Would it make sense to move Happ to the bullpen? Kahnle, although a righty, was the go-to reliever against lefties because of his unique splits, so perhaps Happ could be used against lefties or simply as another experienced bullpen arm. His stuff likely will tick up some and his conversion to a reliever would prevent his option from vesting. This would open the door for Schmidt to start.

Lefties are 3-for-5 with a walk and two home runs against J.A. Happ this season, which is impressively bad even if it is a tiny sample. Last year though, even as he struggled pretty much all year, he held lefties to a .228/.285/.367 (.280 wOBA) line with a 23.1% strikeout rate and a 6.4% walk rate. Not dominant but that'll play, and it's worth noting Happ did see a noticeable uptick in velocity working out of the bullpen last postseason:

Given everything we've seen this year and last, Happ doesn't belong in the rotation at this point in his career. Not in a contending team's rotation, anyway. He has pitched out of the bullpen at times in his career, so it wouldn't be new to him, and there is a chance he pitches well in that role given the velocity uptick and the numbers against lefties. Moving to the bullpen might also be Happ's best chance at a contract this winter. Maybe he'll realize it and accept the role change. Either way, he shouldn't start, and there are reasons to believe he can be a useful short reliever.

Ray asks: Yankees don’t have room for Miggy, Frazier, Tauchman. What’s more likely to happen? (1) Miggy has options so the Yankees stash him in AAA or (2) a trade. if so who is the likeliest candidate?

I think (2) is more likely than (1), with Clint Frazier most likely to be traded. Miguel Andujar is more versatile -- neither is good defensively but Andujar can at least man the corner infield -- and I'd argue he's the superior hitter too, not that Clint is a slouch. The Yankees love Mike Tauchman, it seems, so I don't see him going anywhere. I think he's most likely to stay.

There is a scenario in which the Yankees keep all three. This might be Brett Gardner's final season -- Gardner is forever cool with me but carrying him and Tauchman is redundant -- and Giancarlo Stanton (and Aaron Judge?) is forever an injury risk. With a 26-man roster going forward, there's room for a Tauchman/Frazier platoon in left field with Andujar on the bench as the "tenth man," so to speak. If the Yankees can get a difference-maker, they'll trade any of those guys. I don't think it's fait accompli, however. They can make it work.

Bonus Hockey Mailbag Question of the Week

Mike asks: I know it's a Yankee post but we all know you're an avid Rangers fan. I always enjoyed your take on the Blueshirts. Can you drop a little "thought" on the state of the Rangers now that the season is over and also the potential end of King Henrik's career?

Going to indulge myself a bit. This question was sent in before the Rangers won the draft lottery earlier this week, which is an extremely cool thing. They're already loaded with young talent and now they get to add a potential superstar on an entry level contract (presumably Alexis Lafreniere) to their core, which is especially awesome with the salary cap staying flat the next few years. A few other quick Rangers thoughts from a hockey novice. One, I watched all three play-in games and, when the series was over, it felt like it didn't even happen. It was a weird experience. The Rangers were flat and deserved to lose -- Carolina's top players thoroughly outplayed New York's top players -- and I hope a team that lost the play-in round (i.e. the Penguins) overreacts to a bad week (a bad week under unusual circumstances) and makes a silly trade to break up their core. Two, unless he's willing to be the backup, the Rangers should buy out Henrik Lundqvist. It sucks, but it's time to move on, and a trade would be extremely difficult given the money and his no-trade clause. If he'll accept a backup role, great, bring him back and figure out the money for a year. If they have to buy him out, fine. It is what it is and the money isn't too painful ($8.5M in 2020-21 becomes $5.5M in 2020-21 and $1.5M in 2021-22). It's rarely pretty when a legend reaches the end of the line. Three, I think the Rangers should trade Alexandar Georgiev no matter what happens with Lundqvist. I'm not sure Georgiev's value will ever be greater and the Rangers crank out backup goalies like the Yankees crank out role players who inexplicably hit like All-Stars (Cam Talbot, Antti Raanta, etc.). Cash Georgiev in as a trade chip and pluck the next piece of fruit from the backup goalie tree. Four, the Rangers should trade Tony DeAngelo too. He is unbelievably skilled and creative offensively. He also plays defense like Bobby Abreu on skates. DeAngelo is up for a new contract this offseason and I'm not sure I want to commit $6M a year or so to that guy when the Rangers already have Jacob Trouba and Adam Fox on the right side, and potentially Nils Lundkvist too. Trading DeAngelo seems like an easy way to manage the cap while adding assets. Five, the Rangers really need to come up with a better fourth line. Not sure I've ever been less confident in a line generating offense (or preventing the other team from generating offense) than the Brett Howden-Greg McKegg-Phil Di Giuseppe/Brendan Smith/whoever line. I'm hopeful Lafreniere and an offseason addition (or Vitali Kravtsov) push Brendan Lemieux and Julian Gauthier down to the fourth line. That works for me. Six, and finally, the Rangers should absolutely offer sheet Mat Barzal this offseason. The Islanders only have $8.1M in cap space this offseason per Cap Friendly and, given their farm system and the No. 1 pick this year, the Rangers can afford to surrender a few future picks ($10M a year equals two firsts, a second, and a third in compensation) to add a second high-end center (who is only 23) to a roster that is just about ready to win now. Dream with me:

Kreider - Zibanejad - Buchnevich
Panarin - Barzal - Kakko
Lafreniere - Strome - Chytil (wing for a year then let Strome walk, or Strome at wing?)
Lemieux - Howden - Gauthier

The Isles say they will match any Barzal offer sheet, and if they do match it, so be it. You've at least given a division rival some cap headaches. If not Barzal, then Anthony Cirelli, who figures to require less compensation and is probably more attainable given the Lightning's perpetual cap crunch. The Rangers will have something like 8-10 players on entry level contracts next season and Mika Zibanejad has two years remaining on his sweetheart deal, and there's a ton of money coming off the books next offseason (or sooner if there are buyouts). Offer sheets rarely happen so I don't have my hopes up, but man, do it. If not now, when?  

(Send your requests for Tuesday's random Yankee series and questions for Friday's mailbag to RABmailbag at gmail dot com.)