Pecos Hank

HALLOWEEN TORNADO FORECAST - TX / LA

Added 2018-10-31 17:08:38 +0000 UTC

VERY COMPLICATED MESSY STORM MODE chase scenario today. SPC issued 5 - 10% chance of a tornado (w/in 25 miles of a point) in outlined areas. The significant tornado parameters EF2 and above are better in Louisiana later this evening. Houston & vicinity rush hour traffic is almost impenetrable from 3:30pm - 7PM.

I THINK THE BEST BET TO WITNESS A TORNADO is in the dotted red circle. Areas of cumulus confluence are already appearing on satellite imagery and in all this mess, that's the most likely zone for a chance of early discrete storms... I'd expect SPC to issue a mesoscale discussion there in the next 2 hours.

LATER, ANY DISCRETE STORMS near, east and northeast of Houston have a chance to drop some nasty dangly bits... Likely later towards sundown and after dark in jungle hell... An almost pointless chase scenario. If I commit to the good chase terrain West of Houston, I'll be walled off from any storms that form in Houston or to the East.

Throw in messy storm modes on top of all this and the deck is really stacked against me. Need to make a decision soon...