Pecos Hank

Forecast Through the Weekend...

Added 2019-06-12 23:10:11 +0000 UTC

Uncertainty Uncertainty Uncertainty...

TOMORROW could be ok in the Panhandles / CO / NM region. My interpretations of the GFS is suggesting elevated supercells merging into a cluster. That often means pretty storms, but no tornadoes. On weird occasions similar elevated storms can grow downward to the surface and produce tornadoes. This could be a surprise event under a currently marginal risk. It could be pooper.

The following 5 or 6 days are characterized by weak upper level flow and unorganized storms. Stuff I get in my backyard all year.

FRIDAY looks to be an unorganized cluster in NW Kansas.

SATURDAY looks like an unorganized cluster in the Dallas Ft worth (DFW) vicinity.

SUNDAY looks like another unorganized cluster near DFW persisting late, possibly organizing into a mesoscale convective system (MCS). These storm modes are good bets for sprites.

Beyond that the uncertainty grows even more regarding storm modes in weak flow.

I flipped a coin and am betting that tomorrow won't be anything historic. (I can see Daniel Shaw grinning and drooling). Current plan is to wait for the DFW clusters and then fart around in the Alley with the vultures, snakes and lightning. The last four years I chased all the similar marginal-slight risk setups in June. The last June tornado I personally saw was June 18th 2014... But it ain't all about tornadoes right?