Today's Storms OK / AR / TX / ETC
Added 2020-04-28 15:04:06 +0000 UTCI'm currently holding off, but MIGHT get suckered out later. This event currently appears to me to be predominately a squall line over poor chase terrain in Eastern OK / Western AR. Supercells seem probable initially in SE KS, but it appears they will quickly congeal into a line. The thread cover image is the SPC's 8AM outlook overlaid a 7PM HRRR reflectivity run. Once the squall forms, I expect embedded eddies and mesovortices to spin up. Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) tornadoes are the likely scenario today... Never a good chase bet and rarely photogenic.
One region to keep an eye on is the Arklatex region. If discrete cells can initiate there in front of the line, look out! So far, none of the Hrrr runs have initiated any though.
Another area to watch is over yonder Wichita Falls / Vernon TX vicinity. Models have been on and off initiating isolated cells along the dryline there...
Strong CAPE and some nice curvature amidst a good cap and weak flow near Wichita Falls might yield some good storm structures if storms can initiate there.
By 4AM, there's high confidence in an organized line. This could yield the opportunity for frequent lightning and perhaps TLEs. Soupy 70s dew points in front of the line will likely result in sheet lightning illuminating high precipitation rain shafts.... blah. But behind the surging line there could be some nice horizontally extensive flashes and upward lightning.
Ultimately I think home locations would determine where to chase. If I lived in OKC, I'd be all over the initial cells in SE KS and whatever else develops throughout the day. If in Western Texas towns, I'd be watching for those cells up near Wichita Falls and TLEs later that night if anvil plumes aren't too gigantic. Since I'm way down in Houston, I'm going to let the current uncertainty over poor chase terrain talk me out of the 7-10 hour drive to Eastern OK / Western AR. Hope I made the right decision. Will update "Dohs!" in this thread throughout the day with you guys.
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUIhoR0HRGM&t=5s
2020-04-29 18:04:47 +0000 UTCHave you ever gone over what your gear is? I see you have a mount by the driver side door, have a mount mid console, you use radarscope (on phone, tablet, or laptop?), and you use paper maps . . . which I love as a Cartographer, and finally your great sense of humor! Thanks for what you do!
2020-04-29 16:36:09 +0000 UTCWell, yesterday definitely was a day of wrong decisions for me. Tried to catch some discreet cells out ahead of the line in Licking, MO and as the line approached, I watched cumulus build, then get flattened out like a pancake, so I figured there was too much CIN and bailed north to try to get some structure shots of the severe warned areas of the bowing line segments. About an hour after I left my initial target area, the line had made it there and radar looked like it had kicked up a little supe out ahead of it, which quickly was gobbled up by the line, however, a nice little kink formed right there and two distinct areas of decent rotation could be seen headed right for Licking. At that point, it was well after dark and Im not sure I would have been able to see anything cool unless I was RIGHT in those kinks... which Im not going to do with my limited experience and that terrain down there. I really need to get a drone.....
Adam Rolfes
2020-04-29 15:40:15 +0000 UTC
