Jan 24 - TX Coast Storm Chase
Added 2023-01-24 14:42:23 +0000 UTCMessy, nasty, early coffee burrito storms threatening my little bungalow today. SPC hatched a 10% Significant Tornado threat. Current plan is to have the WindBreaker on the road at 9:35am and start 60 miles or so SW of Houston.
CAMS...
are the Convective Allowing ModelS, namely the HRRR and NAM3KM here. These models simulate reflectivity (rain on radar) and are high enough resolution to resolve storm mode characteristics. If supercells are resolved, then the model can extract their slug trails AKA Updraft Helicity swaths...
The above run of the HRRR says, get your speed boats and head deep into the Gulf, or hit up the cells (likely embedded in a line) between Houston and San Antonio.
I take these UH swath runs with a grain of salt compared to my buddies who speak of them as if they are sure prophecy. Rather than get emotional with every new run (every hour), I lump them all together as ensemble guidance. that's what all those sharpie dashes are on my neon spaghetti forecasts.
The ensemble above says "consider the prefrontal cells SW of Houston." As of now, that's what I'll likely do.
Heads up Gulf Coast denizens.
Comments
This looks like the system that will be in gulf coast area Thursday
Jackson
2023-01-31 03:42:12 +0000 UTCThis January has been a shocking and devastating start to storm season.
Isaac Heinold Storm Chasing
2023-01-26 03:53:53 +0000 UTC
