The NAM and the HRRR are at odds concerning location of the dryline in Kansas and quality of moisture return there… the NAM being more bullish. Regardless, the heads 5% risk appears to be the best bet for thunderstorms. “Tails” is more conditional. You could score a lone supercell and tornado, or get sun burned. I’m currently in oklahoma but will likely make the drive north.
The northern target scenario I’m expecting is storm initiation around 7pm in the 5% bullseye. The low level jet will really start to crank after dark fueling more storms. Could be a long night of lightning.
Good luck bolt lovers!
Calamity
2023-04-20 11:33:17 +0000 UTCIsaac Heinold Storm Chasing
2023-04-20 03:52:45 +0000 UTCAlasdair K
2023-04-20 03:07:37 +0000 UTCBlueHusky2154
2023-04-20 03:02:17 +0000 UTCPecos Hank
2023-04-20 02:51:47 +0000 UTCPecos Hank
2023-04-20 02:51:25 +0000 UTCNoa
2023-04-20 01:43:17 +0000 UTCIsaac Heinold Storm Chasing
2023-04-20 01:11:30 +0000 UTCterry thometz
2023-04-20 00:59:21 +0000 UTCterry thometz
2023-04-20 00:58:54 +0000 UTCterry thometz
2023-04-20 00:58:10 +0000 UTCIsaac Heinold Storm Chasing
2023-04-20 00:40:55 +0000 UTCRichard C
2023-04-20 00:39:17 +0000 UTC